Betting Theory (I Question this Theory) Looking for Feedback

[Guest]

What's going on everybody. This is my first post, been reading in the forums for about a week now and see that theres some real knowledgeable people on here. I was hit with a theory by a friend's older brother who bets college football mostly. I prefer NFL but anyways, I'm gonna get to the point. He seems to believe that the world we live in is not as perfect and casinos are dishonest businesses. He seems to believe that the casinos have a hand in what happens in the games, not necessarily saying that all games are fixed but that casinos do have some type of force in the games. He says that in order to win, you gotta look at what games everyone is betting on and if the amount of money on that game by everyone is large. If everyone is betting one side and all the money is on one side, the casino is going to take the money. If everyone is betting one side and there isn't really a great deal of money on that side, the casino will let it go, allowing bettors to win as an investment to get them to come back next week. I asked him, "well we'll never know if ALL the money is on one side or not, how can you tell?" And he said that that's where the casino has the upper hand because we will never know for sure and we just have to make a great guess. A prime example was last year's Florida/Ohio State game, in which he won a great deal of money, along with the NY Giants/Dolphins game last week, in which I took the Giants only to lose a 6 team parlay by 1 team. He had some interesting points but I still question it. He says that the casinos aren't in business to give out free drink tickets and comped meals, shows, etc. and they don't pay statistical analysts money to create lines. He says that everything is done by perception and it's a psychological game that we play with the casino in which the casino has the upper hand. This is all theoretical mind you, but it is a bit interesting. He also mentioned that during the world series they had an over/under on the pitch count for one of the pitchers which was at 92.5, the pitcher was pulled after the 91st pitch. What do you guys think? I'm going to apply his theory to the Pats/Colts game this weekend, originally I was gona take the Colts because I think they're good enough to beat the Pats, however a majority of people will be betting Pats, BUT i think there will still be a significant amount of people who think like me who will bet on the Colts, so according to HIS theory, the casino will give it away to the bettors, let the Pats win as an investment, in order to reel in the bettors again for next week. Don't know if I believe this yet, but it is interesting. Sorry for such a long post, but I gotta make the 1st one count. Thanks to those who read and give feedback.

[DevilsAdvokt]

What's going on everybody. This is my first post, been reading in the forums for about a week now and see that theres some real knowledgeable people on here. I was hit with a theory by a friend's older brother who bets college football mostly. I prefer NFL but anyways, I'm gonna get to the point. He seems to believe that the world we live in is not as perfect and casinos are dishonest businesses. He seems to believe that the casinos have a hand in what happens in the games, not necessarily saying that all games are fixed but that casinos do have some type of force in the games. He says that in order to win, you gotta look at what games everyone is betting on and if the amount of money on that game by everyone is large. If everyone is betting one side and all the money is on one side, the casino is going to take the money. If everyone is betting one side and there isn't really a great deal of money on that side, the casino will let it go, allowing bettors to win as an investment to get them to come back next week. I asked him, "well we'll never know if ALL the money is on one side or not, how can you tell?" And he said that that's where the casino has the upper hand because we will never know for sure and we just have to make a great guess. A prime example was last year's Florida/Ohio State game, in which he won a great deal of money, along with the NY Giants/Dolphins game last week, in which I took the Giants only to lose a 6 team parlay by 1 team. He had some interesting points but I still question it. He says that the casinos aren't in business to give out free drink tickets and comped meals, shows, etc. and they don't pay statistical analysts money to create lines. He says that everything is done by perception and it's a psychological game that we play with the casino in which the casino has the upper hand. This is all theoretical mind you, but it is a bit interesting. He also mentioned that during the world series they had an over/under on the pitch count for one of the pitchers which was at 92.5, the pitcher was pulled after the 91st pitch. What do you guys think? I'm going to apply his theory to the Pats/Colts game this weekend, originally I was gona take the Colts because I think they're good enough to beat the Pats, however a majority of people will be betting Pats, BUT i think there will still be a significant amount of people who think like me who will bet on the Colts, so according to HIS theory, the casino will give it away to the bettors, let the Pats win as an investment, in order to reel in the bettors again for next week. Don't know if I believe this yet, but it is interesting. Sorry for such a long post, but I gotta make the 1st one count. Thanks to those who read and give feedback.

wow :laughing: what can i say to that???

i guess....:huddle:

first i banked big time on florida last year, and it didnt look like ohiost was letting them smash them by 30+ when they were 7 point favs????

second the public has been hammering new england all year, and guess what public has been winning on them all year....

third football is about match ups, not records or stats.
a prime example of match ups is tampa bay bucs def vs running quarterbacks or "mobile" quarterbacks, whichever u want to call them, bucs def owned vick, young, brooks, mcnabb, culpepper, just about every damn time they played them...

now look at michigan this year, they are getting hammered by spread offenses and down the field passing attacks.. but are doing favorably well against smash mouth football teams...



not to be rude but sounds like your friend doesnt win all that often in his gambling and should maybe consider giving it up if he thinks vegas is out to get him...
good luck this week as for me i am out to get vegas:fire:


it's raining men, it's raining men

[NittanyLions94]

not to be rude but sounds like your friend doesnt win all that often in his gambling and should maybe consider giving it up if he thinks vegas is out to get him...

Yeah, you're right, Vegas wants us to win :laughing: :laughing:

[Nigel Tufnel]

Welcome to the forum....I think I might be blind after reading that block of single spaced typing...at least cross eyed...paragraphs man, paragraphs...lol.

At any rate, good luck, and go to the general forum and look at the threads regarding public % and money, etc. The topic of public money, etc. (not vegas controlling outcomes, per se) has been discussed in great detail over there by some very intelligent cappers.

Good luck.

[homedawg]

bwtb