Where to get an accurate number on where the PUBLIC is betting?

[RahStahMan]

Exactly, but I would have a hard time believing that is the case. The way you say they do it it should read 50-50 and the way I say they do it it would say 99-1. So we'll see who wins the crown when the email comes back....... that is if I can get a competent answer out of the customer service.

No, I'm not adding music but I need to. I have to do a lot of stuff. I should just pay someone for the stuff I need done but I really love to struggle and never admit I need help.:nuts:

Well I hope you dont see this as a battle of whos right or wrong. I dont need to say that your opinion is well respected around here. As I mentioned I dont want to be spreading disinformation so I am glad that this has been discussed. Wether its cash or plays on a side I just want to have the correct info.
Thanks for taking this on, beer. I look forward to your reply.

[RahStahMan]

hmmm, Zep is playing but nada on Pigs. Guess I'll try weezer now.

[beermantm]

hmmm, Zep is playing but nada on Pigs. Guess I'll try weezer now.

Should work now me thinks.

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea....all I was saying is that if sportsbook.com or any other book gave out the dollar amounts on each side, finding the sharp money plays would be as easy as taking candy from a baby.

Not only that, you could actually roughly guesstimate how large the sharps went on that play as well, or how many were on it....like weather it be just one or two really loading up max bets, or if just about every big bettor liked the play and loaded up on it, and from that you could potentially determine which plays may be even stronger than the average sharp money play, which still hits an approximate 55-60% over the long term.

IMO they (books) give out betting percentages because they WANT people like myself to bet on the other side, for obvious reasons....more profit (vig) no matter which side wins, and also because more balanced action = less potential risk for the house.

The problem is, that if you just blindly fade the public, you are playing right into their hands. When "fading" the public, there's so much more to it than looking at percentages, and just playing the other side if there's over a certain percentage on one side. That might work in the short term, but over time, all you're going to do is end up paying juice like everyone else.

You still need some way of determining which plays to play on, and which to avoid. This is where line moves come in for me, combined with general knowledge of situations, teams and line value.

Which leads me to....

You still need to get the line "in your favor", in other words get the best line possible. If a line opened at say +8, and there are 80% on the fave, yet the line is now +6.5 (a pretty good indicator of sharp money, unless the line moved due to weather, injury, suspension, etc), now at +6.5 you no longer have the same chance to win as the guys who went big on the +8....limiting your profits.

And....

Buying to +8 doesn't solve the problem either, because now you need to hit a higher percentage of your plays to break even....which is obviously bad.

One of the tricks is to be able to "guesstimate" when the line is at it's most favorable point for you....and that is when you need to make your play. It may not seem like much to pay -110 instead of -108, or to get +121 instead of +118, or to take a line at +7.5 when you could have gotten +8.5, but getting the best line and paying the least juice will make you a ton in the long haul. IMO it is MORE important than picking the right side. If buying points and paying more juice was GOOD for the bettor, books simply would not allow it.

Of course it doesn't hurt to have multiple books either, more specifically ones who are significantly different in their lines. For example, one that "favors" dogs (gives an extra 1/2 point to a full point on most dogs), one that uses reduced juice, one that allows sharp (or professional) action (normally a book like that will have better numbers on the fave), one that moves "slower" than most others, so if a line gets "steamed" by sharps, you can still get the price they paid at the slower moving book if you wish to tail the suspected sharp action (the slower books don't like when you do this, lol), etc.

I use 4 different books, and sometimes i can get say +6.5 at one for the dog, while only having to lay -5 for the fave at one of them. That's not THAT common, but it's very common for me to be able to get +8.5 if everyone else is at +8, or even +7.5.

Anyway, I was a "favorites and overs" guy when I started betting on sports much like just about everyone else starts out by doing....plus I played a ton of teasers and parlays, and made entirely too many plays because I didn't have any confidence in the ones I was making...so I'd add more "in case the original ones lost". I shouldn't have to explain how rediculously stupid that is.

The only good thing that came of that is that I now understand where Joe Q Public is coming from when they do these unwise things like play ****loads of teasers and parlays, and bet on every short road fave that looks like an easy winner, etc.

But I got sick of losing, and I figured out new ways to come up with plays. Plays that have won for me over time, and I have confidence in....so that is just how I "handicap" probably 90% of the games I play now....and while I certainly don't know everything (far from it), I do fully understand the general concept, and I certainly know enough to make money betting on sports this way (something most people can't do no matter how much time they waste trying to pick winners through research, stats, trends, etc) without much effort on my part of what most would call regular handicapping methods, and wasting my time researching all kinds of those stats, trends, injuries, etc....and I continue to try and learn more every chance I get.

Anyway, probably no one wanted to hear my rambling on about my betting style anyway, lol....but maybe at least someone out there will gain something from it that they can apply to their own methods and increase their profits :thumbs:

[beermantm]

Anyway, probably no one wanted to hear my rambling on about my betting style anyway, lol....but maybe at least someone out there will gain something from it that they can apply to their own methods and increase their profits

I enjoyed it and it's the same indicators that I use seeing that I'm not a sharp player but I feel I can sniff out value just like how you are saying to do it. It's all about understanding the betting economy and play prices than it is sitting in front of the tv watching every game.

No answer from Sportsbook yet but I have a ticket number now.

[Kevin]

I see Stif's point, but what is funny is that most that read it dont look at it like you do stif because your astute.

Most look at those and say OH MAN EVERYBODY IS ON ONE SIDE, it must be a good pick.

I think any and all info like wagerline, wagertracker sb.com and sports insights are great supporting info to look for the anti public play. Of course a play isnt a play just for being antipublic, but to go along with other info, especially the against the public line move. That is what in my opinion denotes sharp money is in the house.

Disclaimer: I didnt read this whole thread. So if this has already been noted I apologize. I got one ready to burst outta my tailpipe so wanted to make a quick post before I go spend some time in my vacation home (bathroom)

[Stifler's Mom]

Thanks Beerman. I definitely enjoy reading your posts as well. The problem, as I'm sure you understand, is that it's nearly impossible to completely put your thoughts into words so that others can completely understand what you're meaning, and, that the more you try, your posts get very LONG.

I know, my posts get long-winded sometimes when it comes to things like this...lol

Kevin, yes, basically part of what I was trying to say is just what you said....that just because there are say 90% no one side, doesn't make it a good play or a winner. The public percentage is a starting point for me, and I go from there....no the be all, end all, jump on the opposite side of every play that the public is on.

Unfortunately, often times when I see people talking about fading the public, they don't go any farther than "There's 82% on Cleveland, I'm taking Chicago". IMO it's a good starting point, but I still think you need to find some reasons (that the public is missing) why the oddsmakers made the line what they did, probably knowing they'd take lopsided public action on Cleveland, and why Chicago is actually probably the better play.

[Airborne Heel]

Damned good insight on this thread. Thanks for your posts. And they weren't long-winded either, Stiff

[Manute Bol]

wow, amazing replies in this thread, a lot more then I expected. Thanks guys:glass:

[beermantm]

Still no answer from sportsbook.com yet. I'm shocked that it's taking them this long to reply.

[beermantm]

I still have not gotten a decent answer from Sportsbook yet. waited 4 days or 5 days for an email from them and they copied and pasted what was already on their site.

[beermantm]

Reference number: LTK5102440327X Please use this ticket number in any correspondence in relation to this matter.
Dear Customer,
Thank you for contacting us.
<!--Begin MessageBodyImage-->To put it simply the betting trends refer to the percentage of money wagered and not the percentage of bets taken. So to take your example, if 99 people placed 1 dollar on one side of a game (side A) and 1 person placed one 99 dollar wager on side B, the percentages read 50% on
side A and 50% on side B. I hope this clears up any confusion.<!--End MessageBodyImage-->We are always here to help you. Please feel free to reply to this email if you have any additional questions in relation to this or any other matter.
Kind regards,
Tristan Farnham --
Sportsbook Cashier
Sportsbook.com Poker wants to send you and a friend on an all-expenses paid trip to Atlanta, Georgia where you’ll catch both NCAA Final Four games and the all important, Championship game! Don’t miss your chance to be a part of one of the biggest sporting events of the year.
Sports Betting at Sportsbook.com: Online Gambling, Online Betting, Sports Gambling

[RahStahMan]

Reference number: LTK5102440327X Please use this ticket number in any correspondence in relation to this matter.
Dear Customer,
Thank you for contacting us.
<!--Begin MessageBodyImage-->To put it simply the betting trends refer to the percentage of money wagered and not the percentage of bets taken. So to take your example, if 99 people placed 1 dollar on one side of a game (side A) and 1 person placed one 99 dollar wager on side B, the percentages read 50% on
side A and 50% on side B. I hope this clears up any confusion.<!--End MessageBodyImage-->We are always here to help you. Please feel free to reply to this email if you have any additional questions in relation to this or any other matter.
Kind regards,
Tristan Farnham --
Sportsbook Cashier
Sportsbook.com Poker wants to send you and a friend on an all-expenses paid trip to Atlanta, Georgia where you’ll catch both NCAA Final Four games and the all important, Championship game! Don’t miss your chance to be a part of one of the biggest sporting events of the year.
Sports Betting at Sportsbook.com: Online Gambling, Online Betting, Sports Gambling

:thumbs:

I'd almost forgotten about this thread

[Underdog88]

Unfortunately, often times when I see people talking about fading the public, they don't go any farther than "There's 82% on Cleveland, I'm taking Chicago". IMO it's a good starting point, but I still think you need to find some reasons (that the public is missing) why the oddsmakers made the line what they did, probably knowing they'd take lopsided public action on Cleveland, and why Chicago is actually probably the better play.

[rjp]

I dont think that wagerline.com accuratley portrays where the public is betting because the users of wagerline are probably more informed then the general public.

:laughing:

lmfao, most of these people are betting for contests and such, so it's a PERFECT gauge of how the majority is betting.