Wow

[Stifler's Mom]

Total toss up IMO at the current line. ND is pretty bad judging from what I saw on Saturday. Maybe by the end of the year they will improve, but I don't really see them competing at PSU this week, in a spot PSU has been looking forward to for a year now.

Penn St is better than last year IMO. Last year was sort of a down year for them. I wouldn't be one bit surprised if they go undefeated this year. Seriously, they have a really favorable schedule this year as far as who they get at home and who they get on the road. They have what looks to be their 2 toughest opponents (Wisconsin and Ohio St) at home, and those are all winnable games for them IMO if played at home. They also get Iowa at home, and getting out of Iowa with a road win is never easy either.

Michigan appeared to be a tough one on the road, but after losing to Appalachian St, one must wonder how good they even are, or if they can recover from their season pretty much ending the first week. I mean yea, they can still win the big 11, but obviously their national championship hopes are gone, and that has to be what they had their sights set on to start the year.

Not saying PSU WILL go undefeated, just saying it looks like they have a favorable schedule to do so this season.

With that being said, I highly doubt they're going to lose to ND this week. +18 points is a completely different story all together however....even though I see no value in it as of right now after the way ND got shellacked in their own house by GT.

When you are unable to move the ball, mount any type of meaningful time of possession, or put any points on the board, and you don't have the defense to keep it low scoring and keep you in the game...18 really isn't alot to lose by in college football.

I don't think either side is a real splendid play here. Just how I see it.

[homedawg]

just give me the points!!!!!!!!!:celebrate:

[sdsurfn]

call me crazy, but I think the 2007 Penn State defense is the next best thing this side of LSU.

Throw in an experienced QB, tough receivers, and the home field advantage, well, maybe 18 ain't all that much. Who knows, maybe it will come down to 16 or 15 later this week.

And ND is a mess. Coming from a Michigan fan I realize that's the pot calling the kettle black, but ND has huge problems this year.


Don't know if I'm playing it, but I'm leaning Penn State.

[BoilerBacker]

Well I think it is going to be a total bloodbath so why say they are going to win by just three touchdowns and cover the spread? You cant compare what Penn St did last season, this is a much, much better team than last year. Morrelli has another year of experience, the defense is more dominant, the offensive line played better than I expected on Saturday.

Notre Dame SUCKS this season and they are going to have a freshman quarterback coming into a wild atmosphere of Beaver Stadium on a Saturday night. I am not sure if you have ever been to Beaver Stadium to see a game but it aint easy to come in there and win when your not good.

I doubt ND scores more than a touchdown on us. Their horrible offense is going to get shut down the entire game.

I dont know what else I can say, I just dont see this game being very close, whether it means we win by 21 or 35, Penn St is clearly the better team.

Revenge is sweet, after ND whipped us last year, we are going to do the same by a much worse score.

Much better post...at least you say something... if you say something outrageous though, you should back it up. 35 pts is outrageous.

Even though I think you are very wrong.

I have been to Beaver Stadium....great place to see a game, but hardly an unbeatable place. I saw Purdue win once there and lose a competitive game there. Toledo has won there and Minnesota beat a top ranked (#2 or 3 ???) and played well there many times. I really enjoy it and the fans have been very nice to me. I will be going back to see Purdue play this year....

FIU is the worst team in Div 1....hands down. they suck. They are ranked last by collegefootballnews.com. LAST. They have lost 13 straight and they play in the worst conference in the country. Their big accomplishment last year was a brawl vs. Miami. The running attack of PSU on Saturday was pathetic to say the least. FIU had a redshirt freshman QB, new coach and new offense.

The line is now 17.5. Revenge is about the only thing I think that makes the line palatable for a PSU bettor and that is never a good reason.

[The Gipper]

Birdsfan, you said itall in your post. I agree 100 %:
IMO this line is a joke. Penn St played a nobody last game, and ND played a very good GT team. IMO Clausen starting is a good thing, Jones was a joke all he wanted to do was run. Also MParris brother looked good at WR and if they get a QB that can get him the ball it should help the offense. The defense looked much better. I am waiting to see how high the line goes.

[homedawg]

Birdsfan, you said itall in your post. I agree 100 %:
IMO this line is a joke. Penn St played a nobody last game, and ND played a very good GT team.

:th:

[NittanyLions94]

Crazy thing is I could have swore I saw it open at 11, but a minute later it was 14. Everywhere I look now is saying it opened at 14? I wish I would have jumped on it, if only for a shot at a middle...

Claussen was announced as ND's starter today I believe. Freshman QB against the PSU D infront of 108,000+ screaming PSU fans spells disaster for ND. I won't be betting on it, but that's likely why the line is so high.

And Boiler, the PSU fans are almost "selective" in what games they get up for. You see a lot of white hair in the stands, but the students will be riled up for this one against ND. Remember the OSU game 2 years ago? Think that x10.

[BoilerBacker]

Claussen was announced as ND's starter today I believe. Freshman QB against the PSU D infront of 108,000+ screaming PSU fans spells disaster for ND. I won't be betting on it, but that's likely why the line is so high.

And Boiler, the PSU fans are almost "selective" in what games they get up for. You see a lot of white hair in the stands, but the students will be riled up for this one against ND. Remember the OSU game 2 years ago? Think that x10.

I was there on some white out night game vs. Purdue. Purdue won. It was a great atmosphere. Purdue fans and ND fans are the same way about getting up for games. Michigan fans are the quietest bunch I have seen a game with, followed slightly by ND fans. I saw some good ND games including the infamous Miami game which was a rockin place, but throw a bad team in there (like Purdue from '87-96) and the place is a morgue.

the line for this game was at 18 before Clausen was named. My guess is a bunch of ND lover money will keep this line at about 17.5 to 18. I think the sharps are waiting to see if the line goes up. maybe they moved the line from 14 and i am the dumbass....lol

[homedawg]

maybe they moved the line from 14 and i am the dumbass....lol

Nope, it looks like the books did it on their own: Public Perception

Sat, September 08/07 6:00 PM ETNotre Dame at Penn State betED Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/03/07 2:14:36 PM -17/-110 (Open) OFF
09/04/07 5:04:39 PM -18/-110 OFF
Bodog Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/04/07 6:15:31 PM -17.5/-110 (Open) OFF
Sportsbook Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/03/07 2:07:23 PM -17/-110 (Open) OFF
09/04/07 12:47:24 PM -17.5/-110 OFF
SBGGlobal Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/03/07 4:55:05 PM -16.5/-110 (Open) OFF
09/03/07 4:55:06 PM -9.5/-110 (Open) OFF
09/04/07 10:39:29 AM -17/-110 OFF
09/04/07 3:39:30 PM -17.5/-110 OFF
Belmont Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/03/07 2:07:23 PM -17/-110 (Open) OFF
09/04/07 12:47:24 PM -17.5/-110 OFF
WSEX Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/03/07 10:00:42 AM -17/-110 (Open) OFF
09/04/07 11:50:45 AM -17.5/-110 OFF
09/04/07 2:50:51 PM -10/-110 (Open) OFF
Superbook Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/03/07 2:07:23 PM -17/-110 (Open) OFF
09/04/07 12:47:24 PM -17.5/-110 OFF
SPORTSBETTING Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/03/07 1:23:12 PM -17/-110 (Open) OFF
09/04/07 12:43:10 PM -17.5/-110 OFF
5Dimes Odds (Line) Over/Under (Total)
09/02/07 9:24:35 PM -16/-110 (Open) OFF
09/02/07 10:24:36 PM -16.5/-110 OFF
09/03/07 10:04:33 AM -17/-110 OFF
09/04/07 4:34:35 PM -17.5/-110 OFF
09/04/07 9:14:40 PM -17.5/-110 43.5 -110 (Open)



:beer2:

[homedawg]

Pennystate could be the 1000000000000000000 unit bet of the century:banem:

[Queen]

I'll tell you an even better game to smell a rat trap is the Rutgers/Navy Game. Opened at 13 1/2 jumped to 15 1/2 Something just dont smell right in that game. You got Navy winning by 11 last week againist Temple (sucks) and Rutgers winning by 33 againist Buff (sucks). Navy scores 30 points and Rutgers scores 38. Navy ran the ball all day long last week. Rutgers mixed it up. Rutgers out gained them in yardage last week by 130 some yards but only scored 8 more points. Dont make sense. Bet it's the fixed game of the week and Rutgers blows them away.

[NittanyLions94]

The clock may never stop ticking with all the running that should go on in that game.


I smell and under!

[Stifler's Mom]

I'll tell you an even better game to smell a rat trap is the Rutgers/Navy Game. Opened at 13 1/2 jumped to 15 1/2 Something just dont smell right in that game. You got Navy winning by 11 last week againist Temple (sucks) and Rutgers winning by 33 againist Buff (sucks). Navy scores 30 points and Rutgers scores 38. Navy ran the ball all day long last week. Rutgers mixed it up. Rutgers out gained them in yardage last week by 130 some yards but only scored 8 more points. Dont make sense. Bet it's the fixed game of the week and Rutgers blows them away.

I have to respectfully disagree. 91% of the public is on Rutgers, and that is the reason for the line jump. The books opened at a relatively neutral number (+13.5) and when they saw the huge mass of plays coming in on Rutgers, they had no choice to bump it up.....actually creating an advantage for themselves in doing so, since moving to +15.5 wasn't enough to stop everyone from playing Rutgers, but giving themselves a 2 point cushion to fall back on (how many games this last week were decided within a half point or a full point of the posted number? I know I was on 3 that lost by a half point, and there had to be more).

At the same time, had the public oddly jumped all over Navy, or if they had taken a ton of early sharp money on Navy, they could have easily backed it down to a meaningless +11.5 or +12 or so to try and even out the action, with very little chance of being middled by those who got the line early. I mean really, how many games end with a team winning by exactly 12?

Also, when you have a game where both teams are basically just going to run the ball till the cows come home, +15.5 points is a huge number to cover....unless Navy beats themselves with turnovers. It's not like Navy is a completely incapable team like Buffalo or Temple.

I don't believe Navy wins the game, but I do think they keep it respectable, and has a far better shot at covering this number than Rutgers does. I actually wouldn't be shocked to see some +17's for Navy at the smaller books that have nothing but square players till it's all said and done if the action keeps coming in like it is.

The bottom line IMO is that Rutgers will continue to draw ridiculous lines this season due to their strong performance last year until they stop covering, because the public will keep remembering last year and keep betting on them to cover any stupid number the books put up there till they lose a few and back off.

[Stifler's Mom]

I also wanted to add that you guys make some strong points for betting on ND.

I was never saying I was going to lay the points with PSU, just that I don't see how what appears to be a ND team in total disarray is a good bet either.

And IMO GT isn't a real great team, and comparing "Well team A beat this ****bag by only 30 and couldn't do this or that, while Team B lost to a really good team by 20" is like comparing apples to oranges, and will kill you when capping games.

Yes, FIU sucks, but who's to say PSU went all out to beat them as badly as possible? These are college kids with alot on their minds and alot of stuff going on, and it's probably hard to get all amped for freakin FIU and give it your best effort when you know you can just throw your helmet on the field and win....especially with a revenge game with ND on deck....so if that's the case who knows what PSU really has.

I still say there's no real value in either side here. If this line was that far off, it would have gone right back down from sharp money on ND after the public pushed it up to +17.5 early, but instead it still sits there at +17.5. So either the sharp players don't like ND, or they're waiting for an even better line. In this case, however, I don't really see this line going much higher, as I think some ND backers will start to come on board as Saturday approaches.

Either way, it's easy IMO to make an argument why either side will cover in this game, which is why I see no value in it.

[CuseFan10]

I don't think the Rutgers defense is even remotely close to what it was last year, and a team like Navy can run the ball effectively on them. The LB's just aren't that good for RU this season, and will be exposed against good teams. I'm not saying Navy is a good team persay, but I agree totally with Stiff in that the public is stupid and will only remember the glory from last year. Even the D-Line will severely miss Ramel Meekins and the motor he had always fouling timing up and getting into the backfield to make plays. The strength of the RU defense IMHO is the secondary with Girault and Greene roaming the middle and the McCourty twins on the outside.

15-17 points seems like a lot to me in this one.