JoePa's MAC Football Preview

[joepa66]

MID AMERICAN CONFERENCE PREVIEW

The number by the team name is their predicted order of finish in their division.

EAST DIVISION

1) KENT STATE – The Golden Flashes Cinderella MAC season came crashing down after scrambling QB Julian Edelman tweaked and ankle, and the Blue and Gold lost 3 of their last 4 conference games after charging to a 4-0 start while beating Miami,OH, BGSU and Toledo in the same season for the first time in school history. During that losing span, KSU scored just 5 offensive TDs.
The good news for the Flashes is that Edelman is back after spring surgery, so is the defense which was ranked 2nd in total defense last year, their top 4 tacklers, 16 starters (8 on each side of the ball), their leading rusher, and Coach Doug Martin with a contract extension of 4 years along with his wish that his team would be picked to finish high in the preseason polls…..he wants his players and campus to get accustomed to winning football games.
To do so, Kent will be battle tested early and often with a schedule that includes trips to Iowa State, Kentucky, Ohio State, rival Akron, Ohio U, and 2005 champion Northern Illinois, along with hosting 2006 champion Central Michigan. They will have to greatly improve their receiving numbers – they lost their top 2 receivers from a year ago – along with a horrible kicking game that average just 33 yards per punt and managed just 2/10 field goals inside 40 yards (the longest made was from 30), and a kick coverage team that was dead last in the MAC yielding 22 yards per return.
Edelman is a viable threat to run or pass and averages 229 yards of offense per game. He passed for 1859 yards and ran for 658 last season. RB Eugene Jarvis also returns after rushing for 883 yards last year and a 4.3ypc average – I saw him burn Toledo for 179 yards. Jarvis and Edelman combined accounted for 321.6 yards per game compared to the Flashes opponents average of 279.9 yards per game.
Kent expects big things from Frosh WR Aaron Robinson from GA, and senior wide-out Shawn Bayes is a big play threat as is big TE Tom Sitko over the middle.
Defensively Kent had 2 players drafted into the NFL and a third invited to camp. Still, they return 4 of their top 5 tacklers including NFL prospect CB Jack Williams who had 40 solo tackles and 62 total stops along with 5 forced fumbles and 4 INTs. He’s joined by Sr. Fritz Jacques who had 72 tackles, LB Stevon Moss (72 tackles) and Jameson Konz (69 tackles). Kent was second in scoring defense, 3rd in pass defense, and 5th in rushing defense. In total defense they were ranked 3rd in the MAC @ 272.2ypg, that’s 24th nationally, and we 2nd in the league in sacks with 23.

[joepa66]

2) OHIO - The good news for the Bobcats is that RB Kelvin McRae, the 4th leading ground gainer in the MAC (1329yds/4.9ypc), 3rd active leading rusher in DI-A (2964yds), and 6th in rushing TDs with 26, and the first OU Bobcats to rush for consecutive 1000 yard seasons is back for his senior season. The Bobcarts were 8-0 last year when McRae ran for 100 yards or more in a game. However, gone is QB Austin Everson who accounted for 1356 yards passing and 357 yards rushing, and his backups are a JUCO transfer and former Illinois backup Brad Bower who had knee surgery in the spring. Bower did play in 11 games throwing for 426 yards but had 7 INTs and just one TD pass.
And, off the field problems (multiple arrests) in January and February overshadowed the Bobcats MAC East title and first bowl appearance since 1968. On the field Ohio has lost all 3 starting linebackers (who accounted for 299 tackles and 127 yards in losses) and along with 4 of their top 5 tacklers from the top MAC scoring defense (14.9ppg), top pass defense (167.1ypg), second rated run defense (114.2ypg), and 29th rated DI total defense. They only return 5 starters on defense and lost their nose tackle and leading INT man TJ Wright (4).
The schedule does benefit Ohio with 6 home games, but one of their early games includes a trip to VATech and another to LA Lafayette. They'll need to gel fast because they also lost two starting offensive linemen and their top two tight ends. Despite having the MACs 12 ranked passing attack, the Bobcats ball control-style offense helped them to a 9-5 record. It appears that it won't be easy to repeat, they even have to replace their starting kicker and punter Matt Lasher who averaged 39.7 yards per punt and was 13-18 in field goals missing his only two attempts from outside of 40 yards. Hopefully for Frank Solich the off-field antics won't be a distraction.

[joepa66]

3) MIAMI, OH - Redhawks must start quickly to gain back some respectability in the MAC , and gain some confidence before an opening stretch that includes trips to Minnesota and Colorado along with homers versus Syracuse and Cincinnati before continuing their MAC season with a trip to Kent State. Last year MUO finished 2-10 with their lone wins coming against lowly Buffalo 38-31 and 9-7 over an equally poor BGSU squad.
So what's to look forward to? Hmmmm, let's see, the Redhawks lost 6 MAC games by a total of 32 points and took Purdue to the wire on the road before losing in OT 38-31. Fifteen starters return and 41 letter winners, the entire offensive line is back, as is a healthy RB Brandon Murphy and QB Mike Kokal who threw for 2419 yards, 14 TDs and and efficiency rating of 124.34. Defensively the 'Hawks lost DB Joey Card the team's 3rd leading tackler and LB Dontae Wright the 4th leading tackler along with two linemen, but they return All-MAC LB Joey Hudson who had 5 INTs and a team high 97 tackles (9.1 per game) with 10 tackles for losses, along with LB Clayton Mullins who had 91 tackles with 4 for losses, and SS Robbie Wilson who had 59 tackles. The defense however, was 9th in the league versus the run (174.4ypg), 8th in scoring (23.4ppg) but 2nd against the pass (171ypg).
If the O-line comes together their running game could be a factor this year and take some pressure off of Kokal who was sacked 49 times last year. An injury plagued Murphy only got 81 chances to run the ball last season and managed 313 yards, while Andre Bratton gained 305 yards in 63 attempts. Kokal actually had the most rushing yard gained with 526 but was low net at 277 due to being sacked so often.
Big play receiver Ryne Robinson (1178yds, 12.9ypc, 8TDs) is gone, but back are WRs Dustin Woods (506yds), Sean McVay (198), TE Tom Crabtree (124). Expect a solid line to keep the rush off Kokal who still managed to average 231.6ypg, to open up the running game that averaged just 2.7ypc for 86.7ypg last season just slightly higher than Akron and Buffalo!

[joepa66]

4) AKRON - The Zips will lean heavily on their defense this year with just 5 offensive starters returning from last season's 5-7/3-5 team. That's alot of pressure for a scoring defense ranked 9th (23.4ppg) in the conference and 6th in total defense @ 323.2ypg, but a must since the Zips lost QB Luke Getsy who threw for 2662 of his team's 3725 total yards has graduated. And, UA will run an early gauntlet playing Army in Cleveland, then travel to Ohio State & Indiana, come home to arch-rival and MAC East favorite Kent State, and then go on the road to Storrs, CT to face UConn before getting a double dose of "breathers" versus Temple and Buffalo.
The good news on offense is that RB Dennis Kennedy, a bruiser who gained 999 yards and scored 9 TDs is back in the fold along with WR Jabari Arthur who caught 45 passes for 730 yards. Arthur came back despite being a 1st round pick in the CFL by the Calgary Stampede as the 6th overall pick. The problem is...who will get Arthur the ball, and is there enough blocking up front to spring Kennedy since they lost both starting guards, their center, left tackle, QB, and WR David Harvey who had 10 TDs and 914 yards in receptions. Arthur will have lots of company downfield since Harvey is not around to draw any attention.
Coach JD Brookhart is also looking for help in the kicking game. Last year the Zips were just 6/14 on field goals, made 22/28 PATs, and averaged 36.7 yards per punt. He has assumed control of the special teams and visited with a former KC Chiefs special teams coach in the off season looking for help. The Zips will also need to improve on their status as the MAC's most penalized team with an average of 9.3 flags per game for 74 yards....boy that probably killed many an Akron drive and extended a few of their opponents. But the Zips return their top 6 tacklers and has 5 seniors returning in the secondary. Middle of the game lapses also hurt them last year as they were outscored 177-107 in middle two quarter of games.

[joepa66]

5) BOWLING GREEN - Coach Gregg Brandon's Falcons have seen their lustre diminish the last two seasons. In Brandon's first two seasons at BGSU the Falcons were a combined 20-6 with two bowl appearances, a far cry from their 10-13 showing over the last two years and a poor 7-9 mark against the MAC's top foes and must competes CMU, NIU, Miami (1-3), Ohio, Toledo (1-3) and WMU.
Last year's underclassmen laden team suffered thru QB woes and horrible special teams play. However, 8 starters return on offense needing to replace two guards and a tight-end, while the defense returns 10 players including 4 of their top 5 tacklers along with all their DBs who accounted for 12 INTs. Defense was their strong suit last season finishing 4th in the league in total defense, 7th against the run, and 4th versus the pass. Still, the Falcons could only muster 7 sacks and were 11th in scoring defense giving up 26.8ppg. Erique Dozier is a mainstay with 82 tackles and 8 tackles for loss along with Dyial Briggs who has 11.5 sacks thru his sophomore year and should be even more of a force this year.
The question of potential lies with the Falcons offense. They ranked 10th in passing efficiency AND passing offense using no less than 3 QBs during the season. Anthony Turner saw the most time under center throwing for 1596 yards, running for 480 yards, and amassing just over one-half of the Falcons total offensive output with 2076 of their 4149 yards. Often used Freddie Barnes threw 50 passes for 210 yards, ran for 442 more, and even caught 20 passes for 203 yards in Brandon's wide open full throttle quarterback by committee philosophy. Chris Bullock was the leading rusher with 798 yards and a 4.8ypc average.
If BGSU can establish some solid play at the QB position they could make a move in the standings. Kicking was also a problem in 2006 with just under a 33 yard per punt average, 3 blocked FGs, and only 9 FG attempts making just 4. Two JUCO transfers have been asked to improve those numbers.

[joepa66]

6) TEMPLE - The Owls come to the MAC for their first full season of conference competition hungry for wins after a 1-11 record in 2006. Their lone win came against MAC East member Bowling Green but they were 0-5 versus MAC members Buffalo, WMU, Kent, NIU and CMU. To compete they'll have to ramp things up and find a running game!
Gone is RB Tim Brown who led the Owls with 795 of the team's 1006 yards rushing last year. The Owls could only manage 53.7ypg on the ground but fared a bit better in the passing department. QB Adam DiMichele threw for 1518 yards and 10TDs and had a completion percentage of 61.4%, but he also had 12 INTs on the season. Their top four receivers also return but accounted for a total of 149 yards but just 7 TDs on the season.
Defensively Temple will have to improve drastically after yielding 243.6pg on the ground and 208.8ypg passing. On average the Owls were out-gained 452.4 ypg to 215.7ypg and out outscored 496-131 for the year......but against MAC squads they were outscored just 177-124. Toning down their schedule without the like of Louisville, Minnesota, Vanderbilt, Clemson, and Navy will help even though they still have Penn State on the schedule. They lost their top two tacklers LBs Gore and Mebane but return 7 starters which includes 5 defensive linemen, and have 8 starters back on offense losing 3 linemen.

[joepa66]

7) BUFFALO - It's really hard to put the Bulls in this last spot of the MAC East. Despite a 2-10 finish last year, 1-7 in MAC play, the Bulls and Coach Turner Gill competed fairly well vs. the MAC last season.
Throw out a 42-7 whipping by Ohio and a 55-28 pasting by Champion CMU, the Bulls were only outscored 220-175 by 6 MAC opponents, and managed to beat a Julian Edelman-less Kent team 41-14 and took BGSU to OT eventually losing 48-40. First halfs were a real problem for the Bulls as they were outscored 252/57 over the first two quarter of games in 2006.
Despite those numbers, Buffalo was 4th in offensive scoring (25.1ppg) and 6th in passing offense. QB Drew Willy throw for 1391 yards (173.9ypg) and one-time starter Tony Paoli threw for another 584 yards. RB James Starks (704 yards) is back but the Bulls were 11th in the MAC in rushing with a 98.4ypg average. The change in competitiveness, if you call it that, is directly linked to a "situational" QB system instituted by Coach Turner and Willy's late season successes.
On the defensive side the Bulls return 3 busy tacklers from last year...but 2 of them are DBs! Not good for any defensive to have that much penetration by an offense. The question has to be where are the linebackers and down linemen and why aren't they making stops near the line of scrimmage?! The Bulls were dead last in scoring defense (39.2ppg), 10th in pass defense (220ypg), 12th in run defense (301.6ypg), and last in total defense (412.9ypg). They do have 8 starters back but put a helluva lot of pressure on the offense to score points in buckets fulls to avoid getting run each week.

[joepa66]

I'll have the MAC West next week!

[Whaleydog]

Good Stuff JP...... and GL this season !

[fitter]

Looking forward to your MAC analysis in the coming CFB season! Thanks for all the work JoePa, and BOL to you this season. I know I'll be tuning in to your picks! :cheers:

[BUNK MORELAND]

6) TEMPLE - . QB Adam DiMichele threw for 1518 yards and 10TDs and had a completion percentage of 61.4%, but he also had 12 INTs on the season. .

Nice Player ...


He went to a High School near me called STO ROX ...

Good All Around Athlete

If he can cut down on the INT'S he'll be a good player in this conference.

[Skinsfan]

I'm kind of thinking Akron destroys Army this weekend... thoughts?

[jpix]

Now it seem like Football Season...............:beerbang:




JoePa Rollin'

[joepa66]

Thanks guys....I think I'm about ready.....:beerbang:


WEST DIVISION


WESTERN MICHIGAN – I guess this season I’m going to finally relent and give in to the old adage that “defense wins championships”. And, there’s not better MAC defense to back than that of the Broncos with 8 starters returning from a pretty formidable unit.
Who can argue with a defensive unit ranked 6th nationally versus the run (76.1ypg/2.60ypc/ 11TDs), 39th in scoring (19.9ppg), 22nd in tackles for loss (6.92per game), 1st in passes intercepted (24), 34th in pass efficiency, 1st in pass sacks (3.54 per game/46 for the year), 7th in TO margin (10 fumbles and those 24 picks), and 11th ranked total defense in the nation (275.38ypg). And they did it playing some out of conference big-boys; Florida State (28-20 loss), Virginia (17-10 win), Cincinnati (27-24 loss).
The secondary is probably the best in the nearly pass-happy MAC and returns all four DBs responsible for 16 of the teams 24 INTs and 397 yards in returns. The Broncos also have 3 of their top 5 tacklers back, but have to replace LB Ameer Ismail who recorded a team high 90 tackles, 25.5 TFL for -133 yards, and 17 sacks for -111 yards – he was virtually a one-man wrecking crew. Keeping the game close but winnable was their modus operandi last season as the Broncos gave up 19.9ppg and scored 23ppg. They lost two LBs and a DE to graduation.
WMU has gained nice momentum in Coach Bill Cubit’s last two season – In 2006 they beat UVA and has a close one vs. FSU, and their only conference losses were to Ohio in Athens and to rival and MAC Champ Central Michigan. Their first order of business is to replace QB Ryan Cubit who threw for 2138 yards, 16TDs and completed 61.4% of his passes. Thomas Peregrin is the only QB with experience but he was good on 27/39 passes (69.2%) with 3TDs and 0 INTs.
The Broncos do return their top 2 receivers WR Jamarko Simmons (668 yards) and TE Branden Ledbetter (423 yards) along with JUCO transfer Herb Martin who caught 365 yards in passes and was a downfield threat with a 12.2 ypc average. Also back this year are their top two RBs, Mark Bonds (1152yds/4.3ypc/7 TDs) and Brandon West (661yds/4.8ypc/3TDs). WMU auditioned 3 QBs in the spring but nothing was settled except that the expectations are high in Kalamazoo!

[joepa66]

CENTRAL MICHIGAN – The Chipps aren’t down or out --- they’ve got plenty of weaponry in the arsenal on offense and an adequate defense that must get better in order to challenge WMU and repeat as MAC Champions.
“Mr. Everything”, sophomore QB Dan LeFevour was the 1st frosh QB since 1982 to lead a team to the MAC Championship, and he set CMU records for most TD passes in a season (26), most yards in a season (3,031), and total offense in a season (3,552). He already ranks 7th on CMU’s career touchdown passes list and is 9th in career completions, and completed a MAC best 63.7% of his throws in 2006.
First-year coach Butch Jones promises a very up tempo game this year even though it’s been revealed that he plans to run the ball more to take the heat off of LeFevour. He’ll have to since the Chipps lost 2 of their top 3 receivers. WR Bryan Anderson (867yds/73 catches/11.9ypc/5TDs in back, along with playmaker Justin Gardner (471yrds/13.1ypc/5TDs) which means the cupboard is hardly bare. Leading rusher Ontario Sneed (836yds/5.7ypc) and LeFevour (735yds/521 net due to sacks) carry the load, but expect a 2-back shotgun attack with RB Marcel Archer who scored 7TDs but only carried 84 times for 356 yards to get lots of time in Jones’ self-proclaimed “punish the defense on every play” game plan. CMU must improve on their 7th ranked MAC rushing offense.
The Chipps will definitely contend, but must also improve on their 9th rated MAC pass defensive standing (78th nationally/215.6ypg). They were also 8th in the conference in run defense (140ypg) and 8th in total defense. A bright spot is that they do have their top tackler back, LD Red Keith, 127 tackles….but they lost Doug Kress and Daniel Baziun in the middle who combined for 178 tackles along with 117 TFL and 10.5 sacks. Their next top two tacklers were both DBs. It could be a sign of vulnerability.