Mike's Postseason Picks

[mikey_flyballs]

Regular season final: 45-53, -13.02 units. Ugh. Was on a nice upward trend for a few weeks before an ugly Rivalry Week. Oh well, let's start fresh for the postseason with these plays:

UMass -1.5 (-102)
Clemson -9.5 (-103)
Fresno St. +9 (-103)

GL to all!

[joepa66]

Love all three of those....lets get the broom out Mikey! GL:thumbs:

[mikey_flyballs]

Yessir!

Add UL Monroe +26 (-103)

[mikey_flyballs]

Time for some bowl picks!

Realized I should put the UMass and LA Monroe picks from last time under regular season, since those were actually regular season games on Dec 2. So reg season final: 45-55, -15.07. Time to redeem myself.

Off to a 2-0 start in postseason with the Clemson and Fresno St. ATS wins a couple weeks ago.

These are my picks for the first week of bowl action, 1 unit each:

12/16 Troy -6.5 (-110)

12/16 Oregon -7 (-115). About this one: it's risky with the coaching change, but here's an angle I really like. Oregon went 7-5 with the 44th SoS, while Boise went 10-3 with the 67th SoS (this angle is discussed in the book linked to on the main CFB page here). Also, Boise had a shot at a significantly better bowl before dropping their regular season finale to Fresno St. Finally, the public % on Oregon is actually lower, but the line moved from -5.5 at open to -7.5 (I bought a half point).

12/19 Florida Int'l +7 (-110). FIU one of the best red zone offenses and Temple one of the worst red zone defenses. Strength vs. weakness w/ FIU rushing O vs. Temple rushing D. Finally, Temple's recent bowl performance has been underwhelming, to say the least. Wouldn't be surprised if FIU wins SU.

12/22 Central Mich/Wyoming UNDER 45.5 (-110). Wyoming can't move the ball at all and they have a strong defense, while CMU has a middling offense. Wyoming may be without their starting QB, as well.

Will add more as I continue to cap the games... GL to all!

[mikey_flyballs]

Add:

12/16 Marshall +3.5 (-108)

GL!

[joepa66]

Love Troy & Oregon....GL Mikey!

[mikey_flyballs]

Troy looked good all day. Oregon looked terrible from the start. Glad I added in Marshall!

Look forward to capping more tomorrow.

[mikey_flyballs]

Postseason YTD: 4-1, +2.85 units.

Pending:

Florida Int'l +7 (-110)
Central Mich/Wyoming UNDER 45.5 (-110)

Adding:

Appalachian State +7 (-110). Wish I'd locked this in a couple days ago when it was +7.5. Oh well, hopefully it won't come down to that. I think App St. will outrush Toledo, making for a nice dog play.

Fresno State +3 (-122, bought half point). This looks like quite an even matchup with Houston, but the key for me is that Fresno St. actually played at Hawaii already this year. That's huge.

Purdue +3.5 (-117, bought half point). A true contrast in styles here but I think Purdue's defense is battle-tested enough that they can slow down Arizona's offense to the extent needed to win the game.

Virginia Tech +4.5 (-110). With over 70% of people backing Oklahoma State in this game, according to 2 places I looked, the line has actually moved from +6.5 to +4.5.

GL to all! Just scratching the surface of the major bowl games now... will post more plays as I cap them.

[mikey_flyballs]

Postseason YTD 4-3, +0.65 units.

Pending:

12/23 App St +7 (-110)
12/24 Fresno St +3 (-122)
12/27 Purdue +3.5 (-117)
12/28 Va Tech +4.5 (-110)

Adding:

12/27 So Miss +17 (-108). How motivated do you think FSU will be for this game after a crap season and losing their HC?

12/28 Michigan St PK (-115). In what looks to otherwise be a very even matchup, I think the difference will be the MSU D-line's ability to control the LOS. Also, I expect Coach Dantonio to use the slight of not getting into a New Year's Day bowl over Michigan as extra motivation. As a Mich fan, it pains me to say that this is one of Dantonio's greatest strengths as a coach.

12/29 Wake Forest -3 (-105). A & M also dealing with losing their HC, and this is a semi-home game for Wake.

12/29 USC +7.5 (-104). Liked this one from the start. USC had no real shot at making the Playoffs headed into the Pac 12 title game, while OSU was still in the discussion. What will OSU's mentality be coming into this game?

GL to all!

[mikey_flyballs]

Postseason to date: 7-4, +2.65 units.

What a win by Purdue last night! It was on the verge of being a ridiculous loss, after they were up 31-14 at half and Zona took the 35-31 lead late (and I had bought a half point). Then the late TD and the pick to seal it, turned it into one of the most exciting wins of the season. Looks like many others on the board backed Purdue, too.

Pending:

12/28 Va Tech +4.5 (-110)
12/28 Michigan St PK (-115)
12/29 Wake Forest -3 (-105)
12/29 USC +7.5 (-104)

Adding:

12/30 Washington/Penn State UNDER 55 (-108). Both teams have good offenses, but also premier defenses. I see this being a grind-it-out type of game with a low total.

12/30 Miami +4.5 (-105). After their undefeated season came to an end vs. Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, I don't see Wisc covering here. This was the one game where I didn't really get into any statistical analysis and just played based on an angle, FWIW.

1/1 UCF +10 (-108). Auburn lost their shot at the CFP last time out, which is deflating. Teams who missed out on a better game often don't perform well in the bowls. On the other side, I think UCF comes out highly motivated to get one last win for Scott Frost before he leaves for Nebraska.

1/1 LSU -3 (-115). Brian Kelly coaching a big game. We know how that goes. Notre Dame's defense was atrocious late in the season and it appears that Derrius Guice will suit up for LSU. This is a big advantage for LSU.

GL to all!

[mikey_flyballs]

Absolute last minute add: Iowa St. +3.5 (-110). Was kicking myself the other day for not adding Navy late, so going to go for it this time. If I lose this one, so be it.

On another note, how boring have the big games been so far? Stanford-TCU was good, but MSU-WSU and OSU-USC were total duds.

[mikey_flyballs]

Homer play for New Year's Day: Michigan -9 (-105).

GL and Happy New Year!

[mikey_flyballs]

10-10-1.

This one's for all the marbles: Clemson +3.5 (-102).