Week 10

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  • rollin in it
    Newbie
    • Nov 2009
    • 88

    Week 10

    YTD 3-3 (+3.3 units)

    Just a few plays on Saturday for right now.

    Eastern Michigan +15 over Central Michigan (2 units)

    Eastern Michigan despite not having a good record has clearly improved under first year head coach Chris Creighton, and while they are undermanned against a solid Central Michigan squad, EMU consistently gives its fellow Michigan MAC opponents fits, as the Eagles get up for CMU and WMU more than they do the Eagles. I can see that happening again. I'm taking the home dog here.

    Western Michigan vs Miami OH over 56 (2 units)

    I'm going to be a little more conservative on this total than I would have originally because of potential bad weather. Still, even with bad weather, there is a bunch of playmakers on the field, particularly on WMU's side, and Miami of Ohio doesn't have the players to stop them. WMU averages in the mid 30's, and Miami has the habit of sticking around in games. Plus, it's their homecoming. I'm looking at a 30 something 20 something score here, so I like the over.

    Arizona +6.5 over UCLA (1 unit)

    Both of these teams are pretty good football teams, but neither is good enough to pull away from the other. Both teams are piss poor against the spread this year, and when I have that situation, I tend to believe it's going to be a close game. However, 6.5 is fishy to me, and seems like a big number which gives me caution, hence the 1 unit play. Arizona has covered twice this year and it's been on the road. UCLA has yet to cover at home. I don't think they start this week.
  • Stifler's Mom
    Moderator
    • Feb 2007
    • 8541

    #2
    good info :thumbs:

    Comment

    • rollin in it
      Newbie
      • Nov 2009
      • 88

      #3
      Adding

      Adding a 5 unit play here.

      Utah +7 over Arizona State

      Utah is just a solid football team and I don't see ASU pulling away from them in this game. Here is a trend that I got sent by a professional capper. In the last 10 years, the home team is 39-84 against the spread when two mistake free teams (<1.25 TO/game) play each other. That trend along with my own thoughts that the spread was too big sold me.

      Comment

      • rollin in it
        Newbie
        • Nov 2009
        • 88

        #4
        Whew....avoided disaster with the five unit pick.

        Ran into some bad luck in the afternoon games. EMU lost their starting QB after the first series and it was all downhill from there.

        WMU/Miami had 51 points early in the 4th. Game was such a blow out, both teams pulled starters, and they didn't score the rest of the way. Thought I had this one in the bag.

        However, Utah came through for me. The trend worked out.

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