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Ohio State -7.5 over Purdue
Let's face it, this is really the 11th year of the Jim Tressel era. Fickell didn't find until after Memorial Day that Tress was stepping down. Under Tressel, Ohio State owns November. This is a team that gets better and better as the season moves along. In this game, I see two teams moving in opposite directions. Ohio State continues to get it figured out on offense. Purdue can't stop the run. Ohio State's defense is, as always, one of the best in the country. They struggled a little last week, which leads me to believe they will be ready to play this Saturday. Look for Ohio State to completely control both lines of scrimmage. Thier offensive line has played great since the return of Mike Adams (suspension), and Boom Herron's return was a real shot in the arm. Maybe it's a late cover, but the Buckeyes cover this spread.
Michigan State -2.5 over Iowa
Iowa will not be able to run the ball on the Spartans the way they did against Michigan's sorry, over-rated defense last week. That means Vandenburg will be in third and long situations instead of third and managable. On defense, Iowa will be playing against a qb who throws spirals instead of ducks. The only problem I see for for Michigan State is the qb/center exchange, as they have two centers on IR. I like Vandenberg, I think he's one of the three or four best qb's in the conference. The Spartans, however, are excellent against the pass. Look for some big plays out of Michigan State's defensive backs. Michigan State goes to Iowa and covers this spread.
Nebraska -3.5 over Penn State
This pick has nothing to do with what is happening in Happy Valley. I have been predicting this for weeks. Penn State right now is the most over-rated team in the country. Don't get me wrong, I think Nebraska is over-rated as well. They are built to succeed in the Big 12, where defense is an option. They had the best defense out of a bunch of teams that have no defense (with all due respect to Texas). Penn State, however, has been barely sliding by the bottom-feeders of the conference. Now, we see the real Penn State, as they lose the last three and end up where they belong, in the Insight Bowl. Don't get me wrong, their defense is good enough to keep them in a lot of games. Just not against the Nebraska's, Ohio State's and Wisconsin's of the world. Penn State has played one good team, and they lost that game (Alabama). That was against a freshman qb in his second start. I think Penn State gets some extra juice early from the distractions, but that won't last. Nebraska owns the second half as the emotions wear off, and covers this spread easily. The over might also be a good play. Both teams have been without their best defender all season (Michael Mauti and Jared Crick).
Last week I picked three dogs. This week I'm laying the chalk. I hope my insight helps. This is the conference I follow, and yes, I'm a Buckeyes fan. Full disclosure.
Let's face it, this is really the 11th year of the Jim Tressel era. Fickell didn't find until after Memorial Day that Tress was stepping down. Under Tressel, Ohio State owns November. This is a team that gets better and better as the season moves along. In this game, I see two teams moving in opposite directions. Ohio State continues to get it figured out on offense. Purdue can't stop the run. Ohio State's defense is, as always, one of the best in the country. They struggled a little last week, which leads me to believe they will be ready to play this Saturday. Look for Ohio State to completely control both lines of scrimmage. Thier offensive line has played great since the return of Mike Adams (suspension), and Boom Herron's return was a real shot in the arm. Maybe it's a late cover, but the Buckeyes cover this spread.
Michigan State -2.5 over Iowa
Iowa will not be able to run the ball on the Spartans the way they did against Michigan's sorry, over-rated defense last week. That means Vandenburg will be in third and long situations instead of third and managable. On defense, Iowa will be playing against a qb who throws spirals instead of ducks. The only problem I see for for Michigan State is the qb/center exchange, as they have two centers on IR. I like Vandenberg, I think he's one of the three or four best qb's in the conference. The Spartans, however, are excellent against the pass. Look for some big plays out of Michigan State's defensive backs. Michigan State goes to Iowa and covers this spread.
Nebraska -3.5 over Penn State
This pick has nothing to do with what is happening in Happy Valley. I have been predicting this for weeks. Penn State right now is the most over-rated team in the country. Don't get me wrong, I think Nebraska is over-rated as well. They are built to succeed in the Big 12, where defense is an option. They had the best defense out of a bunch of teams that have no defense (with all due respect to Texas). Penn State, however, has been barely sliding by the bottom-feeders of the conference. Now, we see the real Penn State, as they lose the last three and end up where they belong, in the Insight Bowl. Don't get me wrong, their defense is good enough to keep them in a lot of games. Just not against the Nebraska's, Ohio State's and Wisconsin's of the world. Penn State has played one good team, and they lost that game (Alabama). That was against a freshman qb in his second start. I think Penn State gets some extra juice early from the distractions, but that won't last. Nebraska owns the second half as the emotions wear off, and covers this spread easily. The over might also be a good play. Both teams have been without their best defender all season (Michael Mauti and Jared Crick).
Last week I picked three dogs. This week I'm laying the chalk. I hope my insight helps. This is the conference I follow, and yes, I'm a Buckeyes fan. Full disclosure.
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