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Here is my picks for the day and why!
Baylor -2.5
After opening the season with three straight up wins over TCU, Stephen F. Austin and Rice, Baylor has hit the skids in their last four battles posting a weak 1-3 SU record. With three of their next five contests inside the friendly confines of Floyd Casey Stadium, the Bears need to protect their hometurf if they have visions of going bowling this season.
Off its shocking 38-31 victory at College Station last Saturday, Missouri is ripe for a beating too. The Tigers (+10’) stunned the Aggies and they’ll look to do the same to the Bears in this their final true road game of the regular season. If my college football database has anything to do with the outcome of this game, Mizzou won’t accomplish its mission. Since 1980, teams coming off a straight up win at Texas A&M are a soft 16-27 ATS in their next game.
At home, Baylor has played extremely well this season. The Bears have posted a 4-0 SU record and knocked off TCU, Stephen F. Austin, Rice and Iowa State in the process. Equally impressive, as home chalk, BU has posted a decent 16-10 ATS mark in its last 26 tries. In comparison, Missouri has struggled something fierce in the second of two or more away notching a disturbing 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS record in its last 10 tries.
Under the direction of quarterback Robert Griffin III, the Bears have been a force offensively. Baylor is averaging 41.4 points and 560.0 yards per game. That’s good enough to rank ninth in the nation in scoring and third in total offense! UB is the only FBS school that averages over 300 yards per game passing and 200 yards per game rushing! Matched up against a Tigers secondary that allows an average of 250.4 yards per game and is currently ranked 94th in the nation, Griffin should have a monster night!
Turnovers killed the Bears in their 59-24 loss at Oklahoma State last Saturday. Baylor’s first eight possessions ended in Cowboys territory but, thanks to three fumbles, two picks and two drives that ended on downs, the Bears only had three points to show for their work. Provided head coach Art Briles’ kids take care of the football, they should have no trouble racking up points and picking up the win. Take Baylor!
Motivated by back-to-back road losses to Texas A&M and Oklahoma State, expect the Bears to bounce back strong at home where they are 4-0 SU and ATS this season.
This one also has the makings of a letdown for Mizzou, who is playing its second straight road game and is coming off a big upset win over Texas A&M. Prior to that victory, the Tigers were 0-3 on the road.
Baylor boasts one of the very best offenses in the country. It ranks No. 3 in total offense with 559.4 yards per game and No. 9 in scoring with 41.4 points per game. The Bears do most of their damage through the air with Robert Griffin III. They rank sixth in the country with 356.3 passing yards per game. This doesn’t bode well for a Missouri defense that ranks 94th in the nation against the pass with 250.4 yards allowed per game. Mizzou’s pass defense has been even worse on the road, where it is allowing opponents to throw for 316 yards on average with a nearly 71% completion rate.
Also, Mizzou is 0-6 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season when up against good passing teams that average 8 or more passing yards per attempt. The Tigers have lost to these foes by an average score of 33.0 to 17.8.
When dealing with a conference matchup between two explosive offensive teams that average 34.0 or more points per game, it makes a lot of sense to take the home favorite. That’s because the home fave has covered the spread 41 of 58 times in this situation over the last 10 seasons.
The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less, and we’ll play them in the small chalk Saturday.
This looks like the ultimate flat spot for Missouri. The Tigers come in off their big come from behind win in overtime at Texas A&M. Missouri was a 10½-point underdog in that game, and with a 28-17 deficit at the half, the Tigers looked well on their way to a blowout loss. But as we’ve seen all season, Texas A&M cannot hold big halftime leads and they allowed Missouri to storm back and steal a big road win in College Station. But the Tigers will be hard-pressed to have much left in the tank for this game, especially with the fast pace play of Baylor’s offense.
Baylor’s offense plays at breakneck speed. The Bears are averaging 41 points and 559 yards of total offense per game. They are averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play which is an outstanding number. Missouri’s pass defense is ranked 93rd in the nation and Baylor quarterback Robert Griffith III should pick up his third consecutive 400-yard passing game against the Tigers. Baylor has also been able to run the ball this season; they are averaging 206 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush. They will use the running game to set up the pass where they definitely hold a big advantage, especially on the edges of the Missouri defense.
Missouri hasn’t won back-to-back games all season, and we do expect them to do it here. Baylor’s three losses this season have come against Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. Those three teams have a combined record of 20-4 so far this season. Baylor is taking a step down in class here as Missouri is just 4-4 on the season with three of their four wins coming against Miami (OH), Western Illinois, and Iowa State. This is a terrific spot for Baylor to get back on track after a pair of blowout losses. The Bears are on a 10-4 ATS run as a home favorite, so we’ll lay the price with them in this game.
Arkansas -5
Taking the high flying Razorbacks offense at home in this one. South Carolina’s defense is carrying them but that will not happen here against the #1 pass offense in the SEC, at home. South Carolina’s offense has just been deplorable as of late scoring just 14 against Tennessee and Miss. St. in those 2 games, and with more than a few 3 and outs in this game, look for Arkansas to get their pass offense going and get out in front and force Carolina to play from behind, something they do not do well. Arkansas will test the rush defense for SC here who allows less than 90 yards a game. Arkansas can flat out balance their attack with a decent ground game set up and balance their passing out of play action and Arkansas should be successful. In a battle of Top 10 teams out of the SEC, Arkansas a TD or more better at home. The Gamecocks just 2-8 ATS the last 10 meetings.
The Gamecocks have lost QB Stephen Garcia and lost their great RB Marcus Lattimore. The Gamecocks still have done great this year with only one loss but their offense is now struggling. Arkansas is also 7-1 on the season and are 12-4 ATS last 3 years at home. Arkansas is 8-0 ATS in November the past 3 years. Arkansas has a very strong home field going 4-0 SU this year where they have scored an average of 44.7 points per game and have allowed only 13 points per game at home on the season. Arkansas is 7-2 SU and ATS at home vs South Carolina since 1992. We’ll recommend playing on Arkansas tonight!
Texas Tech +14.5
Odds makers are putting too much stock into Texas Tech’s bad loss to Iowa State last week. But that loss was understandable, considering they had beaten Oklahoma on the road the previous week, putting an end to the Sooners’ 39-game home winning streak. The Red Raiders are still one of the better teams in the Big 12, and they are in the same class at Texas. Odds makers are also putting too much stock into the Longhorns’ 43-0 win over Kansas last week. The Longhorns had lost their previous two games to Oklahoma (17-55) and to Oklahoma State (26-38). Texas still doesn’t have a quality win on the season, and asking them to win by more than two touchdowns Saturday is simply asking too much. Tech’s two losses other than the ISU setback came against Texas A&M by 5 points, and Kansas State by 7 points. The Red Raiders outgained the Aggies 523-393, and they outgained the Wildcats 580-339 in games they should have won. Tech is scoring 38.9 points/game this season and averaging 508 total yards/game overall. The Red Raiders are 3-0 on the road this year, scoring 48.3 points/game and averaging 575 total yards/game. They have the kind of offense that will give Texas fits. The Longhorns allowed 453 total yards to Oklahoma and 420 total yards to Oklahoma State, which are two offenses similar to Texas Tech’s. The Red Raiders are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992. Texas is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Tech is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) off a home loss since 1992. The Longhorns are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons. As you can see, the Red Raiders have been excellent at bouncing back from bad home losses, and I look for them to do just that Saturday. Take Texas Tech and the points.
This line is an overreaction to Tech’s shocking blowout loss to Iowa State last week. We can’t forget that the Red Raiders were in a major letdown spot following their surprise victory over Oklahoma. Texas Tech has the passing attack to give the Longhorns problems. In fact, Texas is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game since the beginning of last season. In addition, Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset loss at home. Texas has only managed 10 point wins over the Red Raiders the last 2 seasons, and I can’t see the Longhorns winning this one by any more than that. We’ll take the points.
Baylor -2.5
After opening the season with three straight up wins over TCU, Stephen F. Austin and Rice, Baylor has hit the skids in their last four battles posting a weak 1-3 SU record. With three of their next five contests inside the friendly confines of Floyd Casey Stadium, the Bears need to protect their hometurf if they have visions of going bowling this season.
Off its shocking 38-31 victory at College Station last Saturday, Missouri is ripe for a beating too. The Tigers (+10’) stunned the Aggies and they’ll look to do the same to the Bears in this their final true road game of the regular season. If my college football database has anything to do with the outcome of this game, Mizzou won’t accomplish its mission. Since 1980, teams coming off a straight up win at Texas A&M are a soft 16-27 ATS in their next game.
At home, Baylor has played extremely well this season. The Bears have posted a 4-0 SU record and knocked off TCU, Stephen F. Austin, Rice and Iowa State in the process. Equally impressive, as home chalk, BU has posted a decent 16-10 ATS mark in its last 26 tries. In comparison, Missouri has struggled something fierce in the second of two or more away notching a disturbing 0-10 SU and 2-8 ATS record in its last 10 tries.
Under the direction of quarterback Robert Griffin III, the Bears have been a force offensively. Baylor is averaging 41.4 points and 560.0 yards per game. That’s good enough to rank ninth in the nation in scoring and third in total offense! UB is the only FBS school that averages over 300 yards per game passing and 200 yards per game rushing! Matched up against a Tigers secondary that allows an average of 250.4 yards per game and is currently ranked 94th in the nation, Griffin should have a monster night!
Turnovers killed the Bears in their 59-24 loss at Oklahoma State last Saturday. Baylor’s first eight possessions ended in Cowboys territory but, thanks to three fumbles, two picks and two drives that ended on downs, the Bears only had three points to show for their work. Provided head coach Art Briles’ kids take care of the football, they should have no trouble racking up points and picking up the win. Take Baylor!
Motivated by back-to-back road losses to Texas A&M and Oklahoma State, expect the Bears to bounce back strong at home where they are 4-0 SU and ATS this season.
This one also has the makings of a letdown for Mizzou, who is playing its second straight road game and is coming off a big upset win over Texas A&M. Prior to that victory, the Tigers were 0-3 on the road.
Baylor boasts one of the very best offenses in the country. It ranks No. 3 in total offense with 559.4 yards per game and No. 9 in scoring with 41.4 points per game. The Bears do most of their damage through the air with Robert Griffin III. They rank sixth in the country with 356.3 passing yards per game. This doesn’t bode well for a Missouri defense that ranks 94th in the nation against the pass with 250.4 yards allowed per game. Mizzou’s pass defense has been even worse on the road, where it is allowing opponents to throw for 316 yards on average with a nearly 71% completion rate.
Also, Mizzou is 0-6 ATS since the beginning of the 2009 season when up against good passing teams that average 8 or more passing yards per attempt. The Tigers have lost to these foes by an average score of 33.0 to 17.8.
When dealing with a conference matchup between two explosive offensive teams that average 34.0 or more points per game, it makes a lot of sense to take the home favorite. That’s because the home fave has covered the spread 41 of 58 times in this situation over the last 10 seasons.
The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 3.0 points or less, and we’ll play them in the small chalk Saturday.
This looks like the ultimate flat spot for Missouri. The Tigers come in off their big come from behind win in overtime at Texas A&M. Missouri was a 10½-point underdog in that game, and with a 28-17 deficit at the half, the Tigers looked well on their way to a blowout loss. But as we’ve seen all season, Texas A&M cannot hold big halftime leads and they allowed Missouri to storm back and steal a big road win in College Station. But the Tigers will be hard-pressed to have much left in the tank for this game, especially with the fast pace play of Baylor’s offense.
Baylor’s offense plays at breakneck speed. The Bears are averaging 41 points and 559 yards of total offense per game. They are averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play which is an outstanding number. Missouri’s pass defense is ranked 93rd in the nation and Baylor quarterback Robert Griffith III should pick up his third consecutive 400-yard passing game against the Tigers. Baylor has also been able to run the ball this season; they are averaging 206 yards per game on 4.8 yards per rush. They will use the running game to set up the pass where they definitely hold a big advantage, especially on the edges of the Missouri defense.
Missouri hasn’t won back-to-back games all season, and we do expect them to do it here. Baylor’s three losses this season have come against Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma State. Those three teams have a combined record of 20-4 so far this season. Baylor is taking a step down in class here as Missouri is just 4-4 on the season with three of their four wins coming against Miami (OH), Western Illinois, and Iowa State. This is a terrific spot for Baylor to get back on track after a pair of blowout losses. The Bears are on a 10-4 ATS run as a home favorite, so we’ll lay the price with them in this game.
Arkansas -5
Taking the high flying Razorbacks offense at home in this one. South Carolina’s defense is carrying them but that will not happen here against the #1 pass offense in the SEC, at home. South Carolina’s offense has just been deplorable as of late scoring just 14 against Tennessee and Miss. St. in those 2 games, and with more than a few 3 and outs in this game, look for Arkansas to get their pass offense going and get out in front and force Carolina to play from behind, something they do not do well. Arkansas will test the rush defense for SC here who allows less than 90 yards a game. Arkansas can flat out balance their attack with a decent ground game set up and balance their passing out of play action and Arkansas should be successful. In a battle of Top 10 teams out of the SEC, Arkansas a TD or more better at home. The Gamecocks just 2-8 ATS the last 10 meetings.
The Gamecocks have lost QB Stephen Garcia and lost their great RB Marcus Lattimore. The Gamecocks still have done great this year with only one loss but their offense is now struggling. Arkansas is also 7-1 on the season and are 12-4 ATS last 3 years at home. Arkansas is 8-0 ATS in November the past 3 years. Arkansas has a very strong home field going 4-0 SU this year where they have scored an average of 44.7 points per game and have allowed only 13 points per game at home on the season. Arkansas is 7-2 SU and ATS at home vs South Carolina since 1992. We’ll recommend playing on Arkansas tonight!
Texas Tech +14.5
Odds makers are putting too much stock into Texas Tech’s bad loss to Iowa State last week. But that loss was understandable, considering they had beaten Oklahoma on the road the previous week, putting an end to the Sooners’ 39-game home winning streak. The Red Raiders are still one of the better teams in the Big 12, and they are in the same class at Texas. Odds makers are also putting too much stock into the Longhorns’ 43-0 win over Kansas last week. The Longhorns had lost their previous two games to Oklahoma (17-55) and to Oklahoma State (26-38). Texas still doesn’t have a quality win on the season, and asking them to win by more than two touchdowns Saturday is simply asking too much. Tech’s two losses other than the ISU setback came against Texas A&M by 5 points, and Kansas State by 7 points. The Red Raiders outgained the Aggies 523-393, and they outgained the Wildcats 580-339 in games they should have won. Tech is scoring 38.9 points/game this season and averaging 508 total yards/game overall. The Red Raiders are 3-0 on the road this year, scoring 48.3 points/game and averaging 575 total yards/game. They have the kind of offense that will give Texas fits. The Longhorns allowed 453 total yards to Oklahoma and 420 total yards to Oklahoma State, which are two offenses similar to Texas Tech’s. The Red Raiders are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off an upset loss as a home favorite since 1992. Texas is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Tech is 19-4 ATS (+14.6 Units) off a home loss since 1992. The Longhorns are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons. As you can see, the Red Raiders have been excellent at bouncing back from bad home losses, and I look for them to do just that Saturday. Take Texas Tech and the points.
This line is an overreaction to Tech’s shocking blowout loss to Iowa State last week. We can’t forget that the Red Raiders were in a major letdown spot following their surprise victory over Oklahoma. Texas Tech has the passing attack to give the Longhorns problems. In fact, Texas is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent passing teams averaging 275 or more passing yards/game since the beginning of last season. In addition, Tech is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following an upset loss at home. Texas has only managed 10 point wins over the Red Raiders the last 2 seasons, and I can’t see the Longhorns winning this one by any more than that. We’ll take the points.
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