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Below, an excerpt from an upcoming article.
Origin of the name and more info will be in the article. For now, relevant to tonight's game for anyone looking for additional angles:
"What's a Flip-Flop Fav?
It's a stat that a lot of sports betters talk about and try to apply reasoning to when doing their handicapping - a game where the team that opened as the Fav becomes the Dog.
Bettors have different opinions as to what's behind the line moves and where the money's coming from. And often they assume it's smart money bet by sharps and wise guys.
For those of you interested in how these teams perform in Bowl games, here's some recent data to factor into your handicapping.
Two years ago:
Washington State opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, lost ATS.
UCF opened as the Fav, closed as the dog, lost ATS.
BYU opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.
Last year:
Ohio opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.
W Kentucky open as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.
Toledo opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.
If supposedly "smart money" is moving the lines then the smart money ain't too bright as the original Favs went 4-2 ATS.
On this year's menu we have:
West Virginia opened -1', now +6 (tonight's game)
Iowa State opened - 1, now +3'
Arkansas opened -2', shops are split, some have Ark - 1 now, others have Ark +1. Late money will determine the final number.
And three days after I started writing this article and gathered the information above we now have a fourth game that qualifies:
UNLV opened +4', they're now the Fav at -1.
UNLV is also a pick I gave out last week in the forum when they were still at +4. I love the early buy at the much better number but not crazy about the fact that new Favs are just 2-4 ATS in the last two years."
I'll keep the record for these plays in this post as well as add any additional games if any show up.
Not sure what I'm doing on tonight's game, nothing really strong on it system wise or gut feel.
Good luck on your play.
Origin of the name and more info will be in the article. For now, relevant to tonight's game for anyone looking for additional angles:
"What's a Flip-Flop Fav?
It's a stat that a lot of sports betters talk about and try to apply reasoning to when doing their handicapping - a game where the team that opened as the Fav becomes the Dog.
Bettors have different opinions as to what's behind the line moves and where the money's coming from. And often they assume it's smart money bet by sharps and wise guys.
For those of you interested in how these teams perform in Bowl games, here's some recent data to factor into your handicapping.
Two years ago:
Washington State opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, lost ATS.
UCF opened as the Fav, closed as the dog, lost ATS.
BYU opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.
Last year:
Ohio opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.
W Kentucky open as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.
Toledo opened as the Fav, closed as the Dog, won ATS.
If supposedly "smart money" is moving the lines then the smart money ain't too bright as the original Favs went 4-2 ATS.
On this year's menu we have:
West Virginia opened -1', now +6 (tonight's game)
Iowa State opened - 1, now +3'
Arkansas opened -2', shops are split, some have Ark - 1 now, others have Ark +1. Late money will determine the final number.
And three days after I started writing this article and gathered the information above we now have a fourth game that qualifies:
UNLV opened +4', they're now the Fav at -1.
UNLV is also a pick I gave out last week in the forum when they were still at +4. I love the early buy at the much better number but not crazy about the fact that new Favs are just 2-4 ATS in the last two years."
I'll keep the record for these plays in this post as well as add any additional games if any show up.
Not sure what I'm doing on tonight's game, nothing really strong on it system wise or gut feel.
Good luck on your play.
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