Championship Games and Bowls

[RBD]

At the end of the regular season here's what my charts look like as we enter the bowls (see reply in post number 2. You may have to be signed in to open the picture.)

[RBD]

What works in a regular season may not work in the postseason on any sport. But for bowl season I have a few other systems that I use, so between the regular season's handicapping methods and the bowl stuff I should have plenty of plays to carry us through to the championship game next month.

From the picture, left hand column, purple link, NP Unders came in at 23-13, 64%.

T1 Unders, orange ink, came in at 13-6, 68%.

And of course, * plays, far right hand side of the page, Orange ink, 9-19, 67% Fade.

Have one place so far for the title games this weekend, article will be up today or tomorrow.

Good luck to you all in the postseason.

[RBD]

Update: In my weekly college football article I gave out a pick and analysis on Boise St, with a "Wait to buy" recommendation.
The line opened at Boise -5.
Yesterday the board was split between -3' and -4 so I waited to see if it continued to drop, but the 3' are gone this morning (I knew that was too low) and -4 is the WAN now.
A couple houses have added juice to the -4 so I grabbed it this morning (Bovada -4, -110) before it goes any higher.

[RBD]

I just finished 'capping the bowl games.
I have some good stuff.

As always, I'll have article picks and forum picks, separate records for each (due to deadlines and late picks/second half plays.)

In my first article this week I'll breakdown the different Bowl systems (I hate that that word) I use, including the records for each of them.
It will also have picks and analysis on the first game I'm buying.
See ya there.

UPDATE: A heads up on a pick. I bought UNLV just now at +4 as the hook is off at some houses on my screens.
Opened Cal -1', went to -4, starting to reverse course now.
Will give reasons/details/records in the forum tomorrow.

[RBD]

EXCELLENT move posting the early buy notice on UNLV yesterday afternoon at +4 when it was the WAN. This morning it's at +2', < a FG.

The Rebels are my second Bowl Buy, first forum pick. The other buy is in my first article of the week, where I detail the eight Bowl systems (I hate that word) I use.
My second article will give info on the methods I use for the regular season and how they perform (records) in Bowls. And that's where my UNLV pick comes from.

Reg season I use two 'capping methods (WF1, WF2) to try and find WF's (Wrong Favs) to play ON or AGAINST. In Bowls I have a third (WFNP.)

WFNP says UNLV should be the Fav. Three years of data on WFNP in Bowls shows a record of 16-7, 69%.

WF1 also says UNLV should be the Fav. WF1 has two years of data on Bowl games and a record of 20-10, 67%.

When I get a match (when both WFNP and WF1 have the same WF) the record is 5-0.

Ya gotta like those stats.

I'll have more of these plays in my articles and here in the forum throughout the Bowl season.

GOOD LUCK to all of you with your Bowl play.

[RBD]

Update: STILL crunching numbers for the Bowls, halfway through checking for WF2 plays (19-10, 65%, two yrs of data.)
I have four teams that qualify so far, the reason for this update is one of them is UNLV.
So that's WFNP, WF1, AND WF2 all saying UNLV should be the Fav.
And . . .when all three WF spots match, the record is 3-0, two yrs of data.

No guarantee the play will win of course but UNLV +4 might be the best timed buy I make this Bowl season as the WAN is now +1.

[RBD]

I have no play on the early game today, W Kent/J Mad.
Because I have conflicting systems.

Bowl system #3 says take J Mad; record 23-15, 60%, 17 years of data charted. Looks good, looks like a play, eh?
But . . .
J Mad is off two SU losses to end the season, a play AGAINST spot based on my friend's system, 3-1 last year, says take W Kent today.
And . . .
WF2 says W Kent should be the Fav. WF2 was 33-45 on Rd teams regular season this year, BUT in Bowls WF2 is 19-10, 65%, two years of data tracked.

Two of three say take W Kent but the one that says J Mad has more than five times as many years of data charted as the other two combined, making it a difficult decision to make - play or not, and if so - WHO?

And this "who's playing, who isn't?" transfer portal nonsense is adding an extra dimension to 'capping, and added factors only makes it more difficult to 'cap.
Because of this I'm going to take it slow this post season. They need to fix this problem.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Forum Bowl Record: 1-0
Overall forum record: 13-10

Review: Got a W on my first Bowl play.
Had a great line at UNLV +4 (closed -3') but the pts were a non factor as the Rebels rolled 24-13.

Bowls thus far:

Sides 3 Favs, 1 Push/Win or Loss depending on when you bought the W K/Mem game.

Totals: 1 Ov, 3 Un

Of note - the 'follow the money" theory is 4-0, the line movement based money moves have all been correct.

Today, Sam H qualifies for WF2 but at 1-1 this year (UNLV win W, Kent loss) no play for me.

[RBD]

Dog and Over last night.

Sides: 3 Favs, 1 Push/Win or Loss depending on when you bought the W K/Mem game, one Dog.
Totals: 2 Ov, 3 Un.



Sam Houston won yesterday so WF2 is now 2-1 this season.

And the line movement won again. Georgia Southern opened at -6 closed -3, Sam Houston money was correct.

Today only one spot qualifies, a play ON Jax State, WF1.
But . . . Ohio opened at -2' and they're -6' right now.
I'd like to play the WF1 spot, (20-10 the last two seasons, 1-0 this year) but the money move on every game so far has been correct so I'm laying off. If it hits +7, I might buy it, will post if I do.

I'm going to do my NBA and college basketball 'capping now, I see anything good I'll post it.


Good luck with your plays today.

[RBD]

Forum Bowl Record: 1-0
Overall forum record: 13-10

Have a play for the second half, Tul/Fla, Tulane second half team total Under IF I get the I need.
NOT a play that will count for the same reason I don't post live in-game bets - I don't think it's fair, there's no time for bettors to see it and get a bet in.

This play is from Bowl Play #5, record 9-5 ,64%, a simple play - take the team total Un on any team that gets shut out in the first half.
(I think I have 12 or > years of data on this one; don't have my logbook with me.)

I'm writing this with two minutes left in the first half to maximize the amount of time this post is available for anyone looking for angles on the second half.
As soon as the half is finished, and the line is posted, I'll update with the number I get if I buy it.
I much prefer this play when the team I bet the Under on has the worse rush offense yards per game stat, Tulane has the better number but I only get 1-2 of these plays each year so I'll take a chance on it.

Update - I'm disgusted! I just checked FOUR popular "books" and not ONE is offering second half team totals!
Even worse - one of them is only offering a team total on one team (Fla.) Based on their Fla team total Tulane would be 8'.
Disgusting. They should be embarrassed to call themselves books.
I'm going to check a few more outs I have, see if I can find it.

Update - can't find it.
I thought maybe the book that offered only one team was just slow in getting the other team up but no - they're only offering one side, Fla. WTF??!!

I miss the Greek and 5Dimes.

Update #2 - Found it, 7' BUT it's Un -183. No thank you.

[RBD]

Good thing the high price kept me off playing Tulane Team Total Under 7' in the second half!

With just 29 seconds left on the clock they scored a TD. AND even though they were down by 27 points they went for two - and they got it, putting their second half total at 8. Would have been a really bad beat, late score and a meaningless two pointer made.

Good luck doesn't only come when you bet on a game, it comes when you don't make a play also.

With all these games on the card today I only have two plays to choose from.

H/C (Hot/Cold trend reversal) has Clemson/Texas Over.
Only bowl game that qualifies, regular season 17-9 on Overs.
Opened 54, down to 49' this morning. This Bowl season I see eight games, 3 Ov, 5 Un. Slide edge to the Under.


WF1 has Tennessee, 1-1 this Bowl season, 21-11 last two years plus this season.

I'm playing at least one of them, not sure which, I'm going to study up a little bit more, will be back later with a play.

Good luck today everybody.

[RBD]

Not enough time for people to see this and bet so it's not a play but just a heads up in case anyone does catch this, regarding the play I gave out the parameters for yesterday. SMU second half Under 7' qualifies as a play for and post number 10. And Penn State has a better rushing offense so makes it an even stronger play.

Like I said, I don't post live lines because there's not enough time for people to get a bet in on it. I do post half times sometimes but not when I'm late and today I was watching the KC / Texas game when I realized I needed to check the Penn State score, so it was halfway through halftime already before I saw that SMU scored zero in the first half, meaning it qualifies.
Sorry about that.

Update: SMU puts up 10, Play #5 now 0-2 this season 9-7 overall on the plus side but not by much, best to avoid for the rest of the season.

STILL can't pull the trigger on either of these upcoming games, college or NFL. When you don't have a clear play to make it's best to lay off.
But I want action.
ANOTHER bowl game goes Under with SMU/Penn St, 3 Over 6 Under now, makes it hard to like an Ov.

Don't see anything clear, struggling with deciding what to bet.

[RBD]

Last week I used K State in one of my articles, with a recommendation to wait to buy it. The line was -7 at the time and it hasn't moved. I don't expect it to drop before kick off tomorrow so I bought it today, -7, -105.

[RBD]

Forum Bowl Record: 1-0
Overall forum record: 13-10

This pick on Pitt/Toledo has Trouble with a capital T written all over it.
Why?
Pitt, me, and Bowls have an ugly history.
To see the horrific details check out my next article, which also has an NFL Stupid Asterisk Play in it (NFL record 3-11 overall, 3-10, 76% Fading Hm teams like this week's play.)

And speaking of Stupid Asterisk Plays . . .
WF2 says Toledo should be the Fav today.
WF2 Bowl record is 19-10 last two years, 3-2 this season, 22-12, 64% overall. Solid numbers that say "Take Toledo" right?
BUT . . .
WF1 says Pitt is the correct Fav, and the spread differential between the two says Toledo qualifies as a Stupid Asterisk Play Fade, a 9-20, 68% regular season Fade; no Bowl record.

Two strong systems, two conflicting plays.
Normally this is a "sit this one out" situation.
But I want action.

WF2 says Toledo.

Stupid * says Pitt.

Money/line move says take Toledo (Pit opened at -9', -6' now and line moves have been pretty much spot on this season.)

Toledo has lost their last two regular season games. From my article outlining Bowl Systems:

https://www.predictem.com/college-football/bowl-betting/

"The seventh (correction, eighth) play is one that I didn’t formulate myself. A friend told me about it last year: “Bet AGAINST any bowl team that ended the regular season with two straight losses.”
Last year this was 3-1 ATS."
This year it's 2-0 (Memphis and UNLV) and the play on this one would be AGAINST Toledo who lost their last two games SU.
BUT . . . Pitt lost their last FIVE games SU.
But two of those losses came to teams rated in the Top 20.
One of Toledo's losses came to 4-8 Akron. They lost to the Zips! That's ugly.

Any help checking conference records for Bowl games in 2024?
Toledo, MAC, 2-1
Pit, ACC 0-3
Edge Toledo.

Any handicapping help from HC Bowl records?
Pitt's Narduzzi is 2-4, Toledo's Candle 2-5. No help, they both stink.

Ahh, who am I kidding. No matter WHAT the numbers say I'm betting AGAINST Pitt in this bowl. And every Bowl they're in. For eternity.
Why? Check out my upcoming article with my NFL play for Sunday, 12/29.
Yes, revenge is NOT a reason to bet. But, I'm Sicilian, we NEVER forget. And we never forgive. I had a great season and can afford to indulge myself a little.
(Plus. this morning Narduzzi announced that the Panther's QB is out. He's starting a red shirt, freshman walk-on. That can't hurt, right?)

The Rockets are getting +6'. I added the hook for just 10 cents at our sponsor Bovada.

Tol +7, -120

[RBD]

Forum Bowl Record: 2-0 Overall forum record: 14-10


It was a fun game to watch, lead changing hands multiple times, SU and ATS.
And in the end Toledo covered, AND Pittsburgh lost straight up. Revenge is oh so sweet.

Lost with my article pick as K State won but didn't cover.
Article plays are 20-10 for the season, 0-1 in Bowls, with three games left.

Bowl system number 3 is 1-1 this season now, with one game left, a play ON Mississippi, who I used for one of my article picks.

Speaking of picks from my articles, I have Oklahoma today and it might just be the worst number I ever got on a game.
Took the opening number -8', before the transfer portal Exodus began for the Sooners.
Today you could get them at -1.

I have one possible saving grace - for some inexplicable reason, after doing all my handicapping work, I didn't chart asterisk plays.
Didn't realize it until yesterday.
Navy qualifies as an asterisk Fade.
These Fades were 20-9, 69% regular season.
Only have one asterisk bowl game so far, Toledo, and they covered so the Fade is 0-1 in the Bowls.
As strong as this play has been all season long I don't think it can save me from the bad line I have.

Here are some other things from my charts for today.
Oklahoma from bowl system number 7, 12-6, 67% over the last 17 years.

We also have a Flip-Flop Fav with Texas Tech.
I have these at 3-0 this year with wins from Memphis, UNLV, and South Florida.
.

WF1 has Vandy. This play is 20-10 over the last 2 years, 4-2 this season.

WF2 has Navy, Washington State, and USC.
This play is 19-10 over the last 2 years, 4-2 this year.

I'll probably add at least one more play today after I'm done getting my ass kicked in Oklahoma.

Good luck with your play today.

Update: Favs 10- 6, one push; Overs 11-6