College football 2024

[RBD]

Short on time, I'll be back with some picks and reasons and stuff. Want to get in one play now.

Good luck to all this football season.

N'West -2'

Update: all the 2's had prices on them when I went to buy it, so -2', -118

[RBD]

Reason for the Northwestern pick.
As I said in my college football post on the homepage, it's the start of a new season so I have no data to work with.
Changes in player personnel and coaches leave team-based trends with little value.
But league based trends are relevant to me because they're based on years of data, how all teams perform in certain situations, so player and coaching personnels aren't as relevant.

Northwestern grades out as a WF2 (Wrong Fav in the 2nd of three WF systems I use.) One of the strongest trends I have, across all sports, is when WF1 disagrees with WF2 and the WF1 line is > five points higher than the number the bookies have hung on the game.
Sounds slightly complicated but it's not.

I also mentioned in my column that I'm playing the W Mich/Wisc game Under, and designated it as a "wait to buy play" because the opening 53 had gone up to 56', moving in my favor.
Right now the board split, 56'/57 now, so waiting was a good move. That's the number I'll grab on this one, buying it now in case there's a late buy back at under 57 from "middle" hunters who took the Over on the opening 53.

GOOD LUCK to all of you this football season!

[RBD]

From an article of mine posted way back in June:

"I’ve already made my first buy of the college football season, based on a week one system: Oklahoma -39
Yes, -39.

You might be asking, “Is Chalk Boy ghost-writing this column today?”
My answer is this: 67%.
That’s the Win percentage I have working for me on this situational spot. Hence, -39.
(“Hence” is a word you just don’t get to use enough, but it slipped in nicely there.)

I’m not talking about a short term data collection of one or two seasons for that 67%.
It’s a four year look back, 2020 through 2023.

And I’m not talking about a small data sample of just a few games. It covers 24 week one games over those four years. And the record is 16-8, 67%.

In fact, in recent play, the past two seasons, this spot is 8-3, 72%."


Those stats include FBS vs FCS games. Remove FCS games and the 16-8, 67% stat is even better, 14-6, 70%

Though FBS vs FCS games that qualify are just 2-2 in the time frame 2020 through 2023, I took time to look at this year's games.
And the record thus far is at 4-3. At 57% it's a hair short of the 58% or > I use for making plays, but what the hell - it's close enough.
Its the first week of the season and I'm having a really nice August so I'm going to open it up a little bit.
Seven games qualify tomorrow and an eighth is a 1/2 pt short and may qualify too if the line goes up a hook.

Let's start with the early game and see if I can bank a unit to start the day.


Tenn -38'
(Yes, -38'. Chalk Boy is back in action!)

Open bets, forum picks: N''West -2', -118

[RBD]

If I said one of the plays I developed for picking Unders went 35-5 only people who know me, and know I'm honest, would believe it. People who don't know me would think I'm making it up.
And I wouldn't blame them, the internet is a BS'ers Paradise.

But of those 40 games, 29 are posted on the internet, dated and time stamped, with a record of 25-4 during the regular season.
Did I play them all?
No.
It wasn't until about five weeks into the season that I noticed that the record was looking really good and jumped on it.

I'm mentioning this because I'm going to list all plays that qualify this year, for record tracking purposes, accuracy, verification, and in case anyone is looking for an angle on any of these games.

These are not recommended plays.
I may play some of them, I may not. I'm still handicapping my day. If I play one and want to recommend it I'll add it here.

The four year record for this play looks like this:
2020: 25-4, 86%
2021: 34-21, 63%
2022: 34-32, 51%
2023: 21-17, 55%

I'm going to talk more about this play in my next article for the homepage. It's 1-0 this season. It's the same play I used in my homepage column for the Un in last night's W. Mich/Wisc game.
Here are the games that also qualify this week:
Kent St/Pit Un 56
Akron/Ohio St Un 57
UTEP/Neb Un 48'

LSU/USC qualifies as an Over (64) but the record on Overs usually averages out to about .500.


Open bets, forum picks:
Tenn -38'
N'West -2', -118

Good luck to all with your play today.

Update at 9:30: I forgot to mention that the play I had on Oklahoma last night from my column in June with the "early buy" advice and description of this week one only play has a few more spots today if anyone's interested.

I already gave out Tennessee as a recommended play here in the Forum, the following are the other games that qualify, again for record keeping purposes only, not giving them as recommended picks unless I add them later:
Memphis, Mississippi, Louisville, Auburn, South Florida, and Oregon.

[RBD]

Forum Stats
Recap: 2-0
Record: 2-0
This week's play: N Ill/N Dame Ov

Banked a couple units with Tenn (Chalk Boy scores again) and N' West.

The New Play (the one I'm posting here for record keeping and in case anyone is looking for additional angles on a game) went 2-2.
Kent/PIt was Ov by halftime, never had a chance, and a pick 6 by Akron (I hate the Zips - they cost me a victory in the old Stardust Invitational years ago) in the final two minutes pushed the Ohio St game Over.
I only used one spot, Wisconsin, for a W in my home page article.

This week TWELVE plays qualify. Never had this many in four years so I double checked the numbers again this morning and there's now THIRTEEN spots (the line movement on the G Tech/Syr game makes that game qualify now, too.)

I don't like this at all, TOO many games qualify. One of my maxims re: sports betting is "What works one year may not work the next season."
And this many plays suggests something may be different this season, and I may not get the successful results I've had in the past four seasons with this system (see the post above for the yearly records.)

I'll list all plays below but admittedly don't know what to do with them, too early in the season, not enough data to point me in any direction.
I used one of them in my home page article, will likely see how the early games go and maybe add a late play or two here in the forum.

Here are the games that qualify for Unders this week:
Pit/Cin Un 63'
Ark/Ok Un 61'
G Tech/Syr Un 61
Jax St/Louis Un 56'
Mid Tenn St/Miss Un 63
Marshall/V Tech Un 52'
S 'Bama/Ohio Un 56'
E Car/Old Dom Un 54
Virg/Wake F Un 55'
Tulsa/Ark St Un 65'
Col/Neb Un 56
Tenn/N Car Un 61
Miss St/Az St Un 59

CLARIFICATION: as stated last week, I am NOT playing all games that qualify, I'm just listing them each week for proof of record and in case anyone is looking for an additional angle on a game.


I'm buying N.Ill/N Dame Over. This play is from one of the three formulas I use to 'cap totals.
EDITED: the play is the same but I had the wrong numbers.
This play is a Fade! It was 0-2 last week, but did well at 12-15 LY (last year), 55%.
This week it has N Ill/ND Under. The combined two year record is now 12-17, 58%, so it's a buy for me.
Plus, gut feel tells me it's going to be a ND blowout and they'll get me almost all of what I need. They avg'd 43 PPG at home LY and I see them scoring a similar number in this game.
The opening 46 is down to 44' so I'll wait to buy it.

Last week the Irish only scored 23 vs Tex A&M in a 23-13 game.
N.IIl beat up on FCS opponent W. Ill, 54-15.

The Huskies are competitive in the MAC but there's a reason they don't often venture out of their conference to play a top 25 team:
2019 lost to #13 Utah 17-35
2021 lost to #25 Michigan 10-63
2022 lost to #8 Kentucky 23-31

Three games in the last five years, three losses.
All of them saw more points than I need in this one.


Update: In my home page column I used Col/Neb Un, waiting to buy it as the opening 56 was up to 58'/59.
I said I'd post the # I get in a forum update.
BAD MOVE, cost myself 2-3 pts. A buy back is coming fast and furious. I grabbed it at 56 as it continues to drop.

Update, Saturday morning: I screwed up again, waited too long to buy the Notre Dame game Ov and a buyback came this morning it's up to 45'/46 now. I'm usually pretty good at determining when to buy a number but that's too bad moves on my part this weekend. I got the over at 45'.

[RBD]

Forum Stats
Recap: 0-1
Record: 2-1

Review: Lost with ND game Over.
WTF??!!
The Irish were -28 Favs.
They didn't even score 28 points much less cover 28.
They only scored HALF that number.
They lost SU! As 28 pt Favs!!!

But I have bigger problems. I gave out the Auburn game Un as one of my home page picks, based on them qualifying for the Under play I detailed in post #5.
But the numbers have changed and it no longer fits the parameters to qualify as a play in that system.
It will count on my record of course, but not as a play in that system (I have to come up with a name for this play, I need something to refer to it by.)

That play had thirteen games last week. It went 9-3-1.
This week, early in the week, eight games qualified. After line moves and number adjustments on the data I use it now has two
Something is wonky with the numbers, it shouldn't fluctuate from thirteen games to two.

The two games this week are:
App St/E Car Un 60
Mary/Virg Un 57

I'm buying both.
Also, I detailed a WF spot in my home page column on the UCF/TCU game. One other game qualifies this week, a Fade against Pittsburgh.
The Panthers won for me last week and I hate to seem disloyal by betting against them this week, but I do what my numbers tell me to do and the numbers I outlined in the home page article tell me to take W Virg.
I also mentioned I'd use Fla Int but I'm laying off that one, conflicting stats.

Update: No systems on this pick. Until they lose a game ATS I'm going to ride Mississippi every week.
Combined score first two games - 128-3.
Yes one of those was against Furman but I don't care, I'm going to see if I can catch a streak at the beginning.
Adding Ole Miss.

This week's plays:
App St/E Car Un 60
Mary/Virg Un 57
W Virg -2
Miss -21

[joepa66]

Like WVU and Ole Missy toooooo! GL

[RBD]

Thanks for stopping by Joe Pa.
The Rebs and Kiffin came through again. W Virg failed us but hope you got in on those Unders.

Recap: 3-1
Record: 5-2

Got one "buy now" play to share, Fla -6. I don't think this line will get any better, might get worse, so I bought it today.
This is a D30 play, see my upcoming home page article for the breakdown of the play and the record.

This week's plays:
Fla -6

[RBD]

Buy back started on my home page pick. I bought Wash St at -11'.
It was at -11 briefly but not long enough for most bettors to grab it.
I didn't think the buy back for this Friday game would start until tomorrow, was hoping to get that hook off but -11' is a full FG better than the opening -14' so waiting, not buying the opener or -13 or -12 was a good move.

[RBD]

Tonight's play:
S 'Bama +7'

WF1 says App St is the Wrong Fav.
WF record is 6-3, 0-2 at Hm, 6-1 on the Rd.

WF2 also says App St is the Wrong Fav.
WF2 is 13-16, 2-4 at Hm, 11-12 on the Rd.

That's a wash, I have a solid W % with the WF1 play on the Rd but one game under .500 with WF2 on the Rd.
So why did I buy tonight's game?.
This is the third time in 2024 that both methods had the same team qualify. The record? 3-1
I took the Jags getting a hook-better-than-a-TD for a little Thursday night action.

NP update: Ov 2-3, Un 13-5. Four games qualified for an Un this week after I did my initial 'cap.
I used two for recommended picks I submitted yesterday in a home page column going up later today or tomorrow. I was going to use the other two here in the forum.
Today, two games were eliminated due to line moves. Fortunately, the two already given out in the home page column still qualify.

Another formula that is working well for me is the A1 spot ("When WF2 says the wrong team is favored and, WF1 says the correct team is the Fav, and WF1’s point spread differential is a TD or more than WF2’s, take the WF1 team.")
I used this system for a W with TCU in last week's Hm page post.
It's 0-2 in NFL, 2-6 in the WNBA, and 3-6 in college ball. That's a combined Fade of 5-14, 73%.
Four games qualify this week. I used one for a Hm page column that was posted yesterday.
The other three are Tulane, Cin, and USC.
CLARIFICATION - the teams that qualify for A1 Fades are La Laf, Hou and Mich. So Tulane, Cin and USC are the teams to play ON.

Today's allotted time for 'capping is going to be spent digging deeper into the 3-6 record for this play to get a break down for Hm-Rd, to see if I can discover a higher W %.
I'll share the results later today, along with which of the other three I'm going to buy.
Update - Hm teams are 1-1, so no edge in Hm/Rd for A1 plays.


Update: forgot to mention, the Fla play is because Miss St fits the parameters for the D30 spot, 2-7 thus far this year.

Plays:
Fla -6
S 'Bama +7'

[Daws1089]

What is D30?

[RBD]

Daws,
Thanks for stopping by.
There's an explanation in my home page article dated 9/18.
I have 5 basic methods I use to 'cap games. For tracking purposes I assign each a mnemonic to differentiate between them on my charts.
I actually don't like doing it, seems "toutish" to me, like the scammers who do it for marketing purposes.
But it makes it easy to track and share the plays when I have a name to refer to them by.

D30 (2-7, a 77% Fade) is a play that has a 30 or > pt spread differential between a WF2 play and the actual point spread the books are offering.
I gave examples in the article.

S Jose St and Miss St have a 30 or > differential so they qualify this week, making the plays to buy Wash St and Fla.
Dif of 20 or > is 6-17, a 74% Fade. S Jose St, Miss St, Ohio, and B Green qualify, so the plays would be Wash St, Fla, Kentucky, and Tex A&M.
Dif of 25 or > is 4-9, a 69% Fade. S Jose St, Miss St, and B Green qualify, so the plays would be Wash St, Fla, and Tex A&M.

Those are some of the subsets I use to try and find plays within a main play.


Recap: 1-0
Record: 6-2

Review:
Took +7' with S 'Bama. They won SU 48-14.
M/M plays (a match between the two WF systems, both picking the same Wrong Fav) is now 4-1.No other games qualify this week.
I have one recommended play open, may add more tomorrow.


Line updates: Early buy on Home Page column pick Wash St at -11' was the right move, -12' is now the common #, will likely hit -13 and maybe even the opening -14 by kickoff.
Az St/Tex Tech now 59, buying at Un 61 was a good move.
Fresno St/N Mex settling in at 60 across the board, grabbing Un 61, was the correct move. Think this one should have gone higher, but apparently not (not yet anyway.)
Forgot to mention in my home page write-ups - Fresno game also fits one of the other Under plays, T1, 6-6 overall but 3-1 on Unders.


Plays:
Fla -6

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Forum Record: 7-2

Review - got a W with Fla -6 as they won by 17.

First Update: Bad news, my Hm page pick no longer qualifies as an NP Under (15-5.)
This happened once before this season and the game went Over.
The Miss St/Tex total has dropped to 61' at every house I see so it misses qualifying by .3.
Close does not count. I don't fudge the numbers, a game either qualifies or it doesn't. If it misses by even as little as .1 it does not qualify.

Sorry, games being eliminated and/or added happens sometimes.
It is STILL a posted play for my record as I already bought it at 62, but if the WAN (Widely Available Number) does not go back to at least 62 by kickoff it does not qualify as an NP Under.

BYU/Baylor also no longer qualifies, as an Over.
Fla St/SMU now qualifies as an Ov.
NP Overs are 4-5; no edge to play ON or AGAINST

Add-on plays are Ov 0-1 (S Car/Kent on 9/7) Un 1-0 (G Tech/Syr on 9/7.)

When I publish an NP pick days before the game is played there's a chance line movements my make it no longer qualify, but I post some picks from my other systems early for a very good reason. Look at the other two early buys I posted for the Hm page this week.
Wash has gone from +3 three days ago, to +1'/+2 now.
And W Forest has gone from -3 to -3' now.
I'm not always correct with my "When To Buy" recommendations but I'm right more often than I'm wrong.

On the good news side - the forum is back up so I was able to post this update.
On the "even more good news" side I have an add-on game for an NP Under.
Just as some games get eliminated, sometimes the numbers move and I get an additional play.
Neb/Purdue now qualifies as an Un.
Neb has qualified twice this season, vs UTEP on 8/31 and vs Col on 9/7 (a pick from my Hm page post on 9/5); both games stayed Un the total.
And I like to stick with what works, so . . .

Second update: This is going to get a bit technical but bear with me if you're interested in 'handicapping and learning how to find subsets within your methods.
In Hm pg articles and forum posts I've described a subset of mine. From 9/19 forum post:

"When WF2 says the wrong team is favored and, WF1 says the correct team is the Fav, and WF1's point spread differential is a TD or more than WF2’s, take the WF1 team.") It's ("it" being the WF2 team) 0-2 in NFL, 2-6 in the WNBA, and 3-6 in college ball. That's a combined Fade of 5-14, 73%."

Looking at the Wash/Rut game tonight I noticed a TD differential of 7 or > between the two WF plays (WF is 8' pt higher) BUT both have the same team as the WF, not opposite teams as Favs, like in the subset described above.
What does this mean? I don't know. But it's today's handicapping home work - go through the logbooks for WNBA, NFL, and college games and see if I have any other games where this happened. And If so - get the record for it.
I know this - WF plays always have a higher W %, so I trust its numbers more.
Maybe I can find another profitable subset to track and use.

Third update: I just finished the 'capping work mentioned in Update #2.
In 24 games that qualified I found only one game where WF1 and WF2 both had the same WF and the WF1 predicted line was 7 pt or higher than the WF2 line.
The play won, record 1-0, a good omen for tonight's Hm page pick Wash +3.


This week's forum plays:
All NP Unders that qualify as noted in my Hm page column.
Which games? What are they? "Every Picture Tells a Story, Don't It."
The #'s, in early to late kickoff sequence:
9 am, N/U Un 57'
9am, N/P Un 48
10:30 am, B/J Un 57
1pm, NC/D Un 56'

[RBD]

Update Saturday night:
My IF bet on Washington pushed. The strategy was take BYU if Washington lost, don't play BYU if Washington won.
I didn't account for the Push scenario in the homepage article, so I'll update it here - no play on BYU.
After watching the Washington debacle I'm lucky to get out of tonight without a loss. If you watched the game you know what I mean.

See ya tomorrow...

[RBD]

Recap: 2-2
Record: 9-4
Review: Split the two NP Under plays. Tough loss on the Navy game, 50 seconds left to halftime I thought Navy would take a knee and go into the locker room with the lead. So did UAB. Instead, maybe not only ran a play but a pass play, a slant across the middle that turned into a touchdown. Still hanging out with about a minute left, Navy has the ball, third down. If they get a first down they'll take a knee, game over, stays Under. They don't get the first but I still have two chances - they punt I'll get a win, if they try for field goal and miss I'll get a win. They opt for the field goal and hit it, and the game goes Over.

I review losses hoping there's something I can learn from them that I can use on future bets. And sometimes of course, just to vent.
Nothing for learning this one though, and not venting in anger, just writing a review.

Unfortunately, no NP unders (17-7) qualify this week.

In this week's homepage post, I gave a pick and said two games fit the system described in the article, post the other game here.
The other team is Ball State. Both WF1 and WF2 say Ball St should be the favorite. Games where I have a match like that are 5-1.
Not playing Ball state myself, may add it later.
Back later with any other games I buy.