College football 2024

[RBD]

The first match play was a loser midway through the first quarter so I'm not touching the second one.
And I have no NP unders to play today so no help there.
NP Overs moved into plus territory last week, 6-5 now, only have one today and since I have nothing else I bought it.

Play:
Iowa (the team nobody likes to play Over on)/Ohio St Ov 45'.

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 9-5

Review: From my last post: "Iowa (the team nobody likes to play Over on)/Ohio St Ov 45'."

Hawkeyes score 7.
The game lands on 42.
Got what I deserve.
NEXT!

First, a correction. From the Hm pg column:
"Last week was my first week in the college football season with a losing record, 1-0 on my homepage pick and 1-0 in the forum."
Obviously should be 0-1, not 1-0.

The pick in the column, Coastal C, was tagged with a "wait to buy" recommendation.
The extra juice has come off the -9' and a few houses have dropped to -9, so I grabbed the +9'.

[RBD]

In the Hm pg article I mentioned test driving a new system for totals.

This is for INFO only!

I did not buy these, just running a test..

For anyone who wants to follow along:

Utah/Az St Ov
S Car/'Bama Ov
Ball St/Kent St Un
Wash/Iowa Ov
Tex/OK Ov
Penn St/USC Ov
Miss/LSU Ov
Ohio St/Ore Ov
Minn/UCLA Ov

Win or lose is irrelevant, what I'm looking for is an edge, a 58% or > W or L edge.
I'll run it for three weeks, then see if I have anything,
This is part of what handicapping is.

Update: It's Friday evening and I see the home page pick, App State game Under, is starting to pick up extra juice on the Under so I grabbed it at 65.

[RBD]

It's rare that I play games that aren't part of one of the different systems I have but I did it previously this year in the forum and I'm going back to it again, same team, same reason: I trust Kiffin to cover a spread.
And he's got a short one today.

I give the SOS edge to LSU but not by much, and in the one real test against a quality team this year they lost to USC.
I watched that game and wasn't impressed by LSU on either side of the ball..

With one loss on their record already, Oklahoma on deck (after the Rebs get a bye week) and UGA two weeks after that, Dart and Kiffin are in no position to take another loss. They need this one and I expect they'll be up to the challenge.

I don't think the hook comes off, and just in case Lane isn't running it up as easily as he likes to, I'm buying it for the extra juice.

Miss -3, -124

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 9-6
Review: Up by 7 pts with just over two minutes to go and Kiffin goes into the dreaded prevent D, allowing LSU to dink and dunk for small yards in a drive that totaled 13 plays, including TWO 4th downs they let the Tigers convert on.
End result? A tying TD, of course. And a loss in OT.

Today's play - S 'Bama.
Why?
"Asterisk play" update:
NFL 0-8
WNBA 3-6
College football 5-8
A combined 8-22, 73% Fade. (and best of all, most of them were shared here at PredictEm in either my home page columns of the forums.)

Three teams qualified for the Fade last week, all NFL games (I used the Atl game for my home page column pick), and all three Fade teams lost.
Unfortunately only one game qualifies this week, no NFL, but one college team - Troy.
I don't like that it's an early week game, and I think the spread is too high for this match up between two teams with similar records, stats, ranking and SOS ('cept a big edge for the Jags on pnts scored), but I have to stick with what works and though it's not as strong on college as it is on the WNBA and NFL, at 5-8 it's still a 61% Fade.
And anything higher than 58% is good enough for me.

The Jags opened at -13, which was way too high so it's been bought down to -11/-11'.
As stated above, I think the -11 is still too high and I expect dog $ to come in so no harm in waiting a bit to buy.
I have my screens up to monitor the line, if extra juice starts being added to the -11, or if the hook starts showing up, I'll grab it at -11.
I'll post my # when I buy it.

Update #1: Forgot to mention, Troy was in the WF2 spot once already this season. WF2 said they should be -4 over Memphis, who the books made the Fav.
Memphis won by 21 pts.

Good luck to all on your play today...

UPDATE #2: 2:51 pm; 10' /-10 now up at multiple books, waiting was the correct move; continuing to do so to see if it drops to single digits

UPDATE #3: 2:53 pm; -9 is now the WAN; waiting was an excellent move, the morning # of -11 WAS too high.
Unlikely it gets any better for me, more likely a buy back comes from sharps who jumped on that ridiculous opening -13'.
But can't hurt to wait a little longer, I just saw two -8' pop up, including one of our sponsors, Bookmaker.

Buy notice: A few -8' out there (including Bookmaker at -8', -105) but common number is -9, so that's what I'll use here (sharing plays at #'s most bettors can't get helps no one (If you don't have an account at Bookmaker you really should look into it.)

Update: #4; -8 now, should have waited a little longer?
Update #5: And now the buy backs that I thought would come are driving it back up, -9-9' now the WAN.

My play:
S 'Bama -9

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 10-6

Review: Got to luv the asterisk play.
NFL 0-8 WNBA 3-6
College football 5-9
Combined 8-23, 74% Fade.

Yes, I hate having names for plays.
Corny, and tout-ish.
But I have to have some way to chart them and talk about them, so names and acronyms it is.
And since I never came up with the name for this play that I marked with an asterisk in my logbook it looks like he's going to remain "The Asterisk Play" since I'm superstitious and don't like to change things that are working.
Unfortunately, no more than this weekend, hopefully we'll get a few next week.

In the meantime here's the picture that is mentioned in my homepage article on the USC/Maryland game.
Tap to enlarge.


IMG_20241016_132521.jpg

Middle of the page, sky blue ink, you see the letters HC (as explained in the article) and the record for the Under (4-7) that I'm using as a fade for this play.

The other letters and numbers are for:
In purple, left side, the NP play, 17-7 on the Under.
18-0 including last week's App State game.

Over on the right you see WF1 and WF2, record at home on top, record on the road on the bottom.

Underneath that you see the asterisk plays, orange is the one I used for Tuesday's play on South Alabama. It was 5-8 coming into this week, 5-9 now after Troy lost.

Underneath that, in black ink, you see the updated record for the Differential plays such as D30, the play that Daws1089 asked about in post # 11.
No games qualify for D30 but I have one that qualifies for D20-25 (the record is cut off in the picture, far right side you see the 20-2 before it's cut off. On the chart it's 20-25, record 2-7, 70% Fade. The team that fits this week is UAB. Not sure I'll take the fade and play South Florida unless the spread drops a little bit more. If I buy it I'll post it here.

Good luck on your plays this week...

[RBD]

In my Hm pg article I mentioned that I think I had an error on my college record. I found the problem.
For each sport I keep records for MTD (Month to Date) and full season.
In one of my updates I mixed the two up. As promised, here are all Hm Pg picks for this year, in the order they appeared:

Ok -40' W
W Mich/Wis Un 57 W
Pit +3 W
Miss -41' W
Col/Neb Un W
TCU +2 W
N Mex/Aub Un 61 L
Wash sT -11' L
Az St/Tex Tech Un 61 W
Fresno St/N Mex Un 61' W
W For -3 L
Tex/Miss St Un 62 W
Wash +3 Push
Missouri +3 L
C Car L
App St/La Laf Un W

Hm pg record: 10-5, 67%
$-wise I lost a game with nine cents extra juice but most buys are at -108/-109 so it evens out in the end to the standard -110.

Forum record is 10-6.
Combined 20-11, 64.5 % with more than 30 picks given.

With six weeks left in the season I could play conservative and lock up a profit, especially since I'm 1-0 on investment plays (Oklahoma) at a much larger unit size then my action bets. But if my #'s hold and don't begin a reversion toward the mean I have a couple of strong systems to rely on over the final weeks.

[RBD]

Record: 10-6

Here's a bit of good news.
After three weeks with no games qualifying I thought the NP Under might be gone for good.
But it's back to normal this week with four games qualifying at a differential of 7 or >, and five games at the old parameter of 5 pts.
(This year it's 17-7 with a 7 pt or > differential between my # and the books and 1-0 with a 5 pt diff.)

One spot active tonight, Mid Ten St/Jax St Un 63' (5 pt qualifier)
For info purposes only in case anyone is looking for angles on the game. I likely won't play it cuz I try to avoid week day games.

Also, another weekday game qualifies, Rutgers/USC Un. (qualifies by 7 or >.)

I'm working on which to use for my Hm pg article, the rest I'll share here for info purposes and probably a pick or two.

Update: the total on Mid Tn St/Jax St has gone up, it now qualifies as a 7 pt differential play

[RBD]

Record: 10-6

And . . .playing too conservative costs me a unit as Mid Ten St/Jax game stays Under.

I just did the final number crunching on the NP plays for this weekend. Line changes took three plays off the list, added two others.
Here are the final plays:
Overs: UL Mon/S 'Bama (quaifies by 7 pts), Utah/Hou (qualifies by 7pts) added play W For/Stan (qualifies by 5 pts)
Unders that qualify by 7 pts: Rut/USC, Wash/Ind, Ok St/Bay,
Unders that qualify by 5 pts: ND/Navy, Kent St/W Mich, added play Tulane/N Tex

Records:
7 pts or >
Ov 7-6,
Un 18-7 (including Mid Tn St/Jax)

5 pts:
Ov 0-1
Un 1-0

Added games:
Ov 1-0,
Un 2-0

Bad news - my hm pg pick, App St game no longer qualifies due to 2' pt line drop.
I already bought it at 63 so it will count on my record but not on the NP play record.

Rutgers game qualifies tonight but I have that stupidstition that says "Don't bet a play you passed on that won." I stayed off this spot on Mid Ten St game because I don't like mid-week games. It won, so I'm not taking the Rutgers spot tonight.

Adding Wash/Ind and Ok St/Bay

Wash/Ind Un 65
Ok St/Bay Un 64'

[RBD]

Record: 10-6

Good move laying off the Rutgers game Under 56' last night. Had I known yesterday that one of the four quarters would be scoreless I would have jumped on that Under.
And I would have lost because they scored 62 in the other three quarters.

Another good move -correctly anticipating line moves and buying my two home page article picks early.
The Irish are sitting at -13'/14 this morning I got them at -13, and the App State total has dropped 3'/4 points, I got 63 it's now at 59'/60.


Open bets:
Wash/Ind Un 54 (Correction, incorrectly posted as 65 yesterday)
Ok St/Bay Un 64'

San Jose State qualifies as a WF asterisk play (Fade SJS, play Fresno State.)
I'll see how the morning games come in before I decide whether I'll buy this 5:00 one or not.

Good luck with your bets today.

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record: 11-7

Weekday 'capping gave me no NP plays.
Did final line checks/update this morning and two games qualify:
Ind/Mich St Un (qualifies by 7 or >, record 19-10)
Haw/Fresno St Ov (qualifies by 5:00, record 0-2)
I'm buying the Under.
Opened 51', 53' with juice on the Over is a common number right now. Two and a half hours until game time, I'm going to wait a little bit longer see if I can get 54.

Today's play:
Ind/Mich St Un (wait to buy)

Update: Our sponsor Bookmaker just moved to 54, everyone else is at 53' with extra juice on the Over.
Grab the 54 if you have bookmaker if not the wait a little longer than I can move it to 50% or pay the two or three cents extra juice to get the 54.

Ind/Mich St Un 54

Update: Indiana game just went Over.
One play left, from the homepage, said I'd post the number when I buy it. Counts for homepage record only.
TCU/Baylor Ov 63

[RBD]

Update: In this week's website post I gave a pick on the Georgia/Mississippi game to go Over. I was waiting to see if the line would move in my favor because I think it was set too high, weighed too heavily on Mississippi's last game and being at home where they tend to score more.

The line was at 54/54' and I was hoping it would drop.
Two houses just moved to 55 so I grabbed the 54 at our sponsor Bovada.
Good luck with your play today.

[RBD]

Between Saturday morning errands and 'capping the huge college basketball card I missed one, Mia-Fla game qualifies for NP Under by 7'.
I just checked the live line too expensive to get a total close to the opening 64 on this one.
Also have an add on play, Army/North Texas qualifies NP Under by 9'. I HATE jumping out of play after I missed one that won ((or at least looks like it's going to win) so what I'm going to do is go back to through this year's charts and see if Army or North Texas were in this spot before and I'll make a decision after I see the records if they have.

Update: Well, that was an easy decision to make.
Army has not been in this spot yet this season but North Texas has.
And it was an add-on play like this morning, one that didn't qualify until later in the week based on line moves.
And it lost.
No buy for me. Looking at the rest of the card so I have something going today besides the pick from my article.

[RBD]

EARLY BUY RECOMMENDATION
For web page column that will be up tomorrow or Wednesday.
Mississippi - 10.

Stats and analysis in the article.
I jumped on the -9' when it opened Sunday morning.
Up to -10 now, some of them have extra juice.
This number should have opened higher and it's going to go up, so posting this today in case anyone's interested.
I got the 9' but I'll use -10, for web record only as that's where it's originally posted, not a forum pick.