--- WEEK 4 DISCUSSION ---

**BUNK MORELAND** · 09-19-2011, 08:22 PM

West Virginia

My play of the week will be WVU and i'll write it up in this thread i guess.

This is a good spot for a big upset IMO. Quarterback Smith is really coming into his own. I think the bowl game loss to NC ST really motivated THE EERS and SMITH.

I'm a big fan of the HOME DOGS at NIGHT in the big games. This is a huge game in Morgantown Saturday Night.

LSU is very good on defense i do understand. THey are a bit young though and Austin and Bailey are very skilled players who can make big plays on offense and on special teams.
WVU will have to take care of the ball which SMITH does a very good job of doing. They will also need to get something going in the run game to keep LSU off balance.

My thoughts are WVU will get ahead and hang on late or win it with a late BITANCOURT field goal.

:thumbs:

**hodown** · 09-20-2011, 09:57 PM

A lot of line movement toward Clemson in their game hosting FSU. FSU is fairly beat up, may play without Manuel, and in a nice letdown spot on the road against a conference rival.

I was surprised to see the ASU line move against them to -2.5 ASU is coming off of a loss where they played a road, night game half way across the country, outgaining the Illini 360-240. USC has shown nothing so far, seems like a generous line to back the Sun Devils.

Alabama -11.5 seems a bit inflated, considering they are built around the run game and defense and have a first year starting QB. Unless Arkansas gets killed in the turnover battle and/or gets dominated up front on both lines, I don't see why this isn't a one possession game all the way through. If Alabama does build a solid lead at least Arkansas has enough firepower to possibly backdoor the line.

**DaBullz** · 09-21-2011, 08:25 AM

I haven't been posting my plays this season but I figured I would throw out a couple of games that have caught my eye so far this week and what I think about them.

Utah State -10 vs Colorado State
I see a USU offense that Colorado's depleted defense would not be able to stop even without all the injuries they have had so far this season. This is a CSU team that looked to be on the way up going into the season but it's tough to improve when you have to replace as many starters as they have by week 4. My biggest worry with this one is that I'm falling into the trap with a mediocre(at best) team giving too much chalk after some high profile games where they overachieved. Anyone think I'm crazy for thinking USU is worth 10 points even if it is their homecoming game?

South Carolina -16 vs Vanderbilt

I see Vandy as the classic overvalued team that has had a few good wins(albiet against UCONN and Ole Miss teams that are in "rebuilding" to put it nicely). The 95 ypg rushing that their defense has allowed have been against the #77 and #99 rushing offenses and FCS Elon. I tend to take consensus numbers that I find online with a grain of salt but it seems like the public is liking Vandy in this game and I think that the bookies will clean up on this one if that really is the case(the line moved from -15 to -16 early on despite the public Vandy love).

Curious what everyone else thinks about these games...

**Underdog88** · 09-21-2011, 09:12 AM

neither of those games caught my eye when I was looking through... I couldn't lay that kind of chalk with Utah st, though a team total over could be solid there....

Colorado is catching way too many pts @ Osu. I don't care that the Buckeyes are off a loss, because they are turrble. Colorado finally got a win under their belt after some tough losses, IMO they are much better than ppl think

I'm on the other side of Clemson with FSU. I don't think this is a letdown spot for FSU at all coming off the loss to the Sooners. If anything I think it's a letdown spot for Clemson off the Aub win. FSU with the far superior defense, and they should be able to get the passing game going vs Clemson....

UNc/GT over- I think UNC keeps this close and it could be a nice ats play as well. Both teams should be able to score...

**DukiesBaby** · 09-21-2011, 03:29 PM

Toledo +2� -110

suprised at this line, because from what i have watched, syracuse flat out sucks donkey balls, i mean they look really bad... probably gonna play toledo hard, ill look into this more maybe im missing something...

California at Washington U
Sat 9/24 339 California +3 -110
3:30PM 340 Washington U -3 -110

the over in this game, love it! i mean washington can put up points and their defense is awful, colorado cal game gonna be like this game, 30+ for both teams in my opinion... just gonna tail the over in huskie football till they dont cover:thumbs:

LSU -5� -110

i just dont see wvu even keeping this close, i think too much respect given to the home team here, and even though oregon didnt play too well, they still showed that they can play good defense vs the spread.. wvu is not as young on the offensive line as oregon, but they also are not as good as oregon either, if wvu still had that awesome running attack like 2 years ago i would probably tail them here, but this offense is pass heavy, and that big front 4 of lsu and those excellent corners, this game could get ugly fast... i hope i am wrong cause as a fan i wanna see les miles get his teeth kicked in always, but i just dont see it happening here, it will come vs the likes of florida or alabama or maybe @ Tennessee... maybe lol

Notre Dame -7

Brian Kelly Coached at Cinci for a bit, he has seen pitt a few times, i have feeling he knows how to prepare for this team, i expect same type of game as last week again for the irish, win this in a big way 14+

Fresno State -5�

Not impressed with idaho at all, tailed 1 time at the begining of the year, wont do it again, fresno state had played a couple decent games this year just were outmatched hard vs a better nebraska, idaho got smashed by bowling green, and beat only a shallow north dakota team, i think fresno wins by 10 on the road

UCLA +3� :nuts::nuts:

Wow i really thought i would see a -7 for ucla here, oregon state is injured all over and looks AWFUL i mean wow i dont even care if they match up well vs UCLA, The Books are Smoking some good **** before they put this line out, and i want some of it... this team even to win does not , does not, does not deserve to be favored in any game... i am in aww of this line, confused as to do i bet massive amount on UCLA here or do i just walk away and not play this, man this will be on my mind all week too kickoff .....

Oklahoma State +3�

Pick the winner here, i will be playing ok st team total, but the spread and money line seem to much of a gamble, i personally believe they should win this game as i think they are the better team, but a&m is good too, gonna be a good good good one to watch... my lean is ok st

**hodown** · 09-21-2011, 09:05 PM

Can't see how anyone can back UCLA at all with their QB problems.

I do like ND though. Pitt completely cratered last week at Iowa and I have to think there's some letdown after blowing a 17 point lead with 9 minutes to go against one of the least explosive schools in the country. A lot of Pitt's ball movement through the air came on busted coverages and I think ND has the athletes on both sides of the ball to control the game. I agree with a 14+ point win.

**hodown** · 09-21-2011, 09:07 PM

After looking at the Colorado/OSU game that UDog brought up, I must say that is a lot of points for a team to cover that has no offense whatsoever. Good find...

**rocjones** · 09-21-2011, 09:56 PM

Originally posted by hodown

Can't see how anyone can back UCLA at all with their QB problems.

I do like ND though. Pitt completely cratered last week at Iowa and I have to think there's some letdown after blowing a 17 point lead with 9 minutes to go against one of the least explosive schools in the country. A lot of Pitt's ball movement through the air came on busted coverages and I think ND has the athletes on both sides of the ball to control the game. I agree with a 14+ point win.

i back UCLA also cause Oregon St has just as many problems....

**hodown** · 09-22-2011, 09:00 AM

I don't see how saying Oregon State has problems warrants a backing of UCLA. Osu is at home and coming off a bye which atleast gives them a peripheral advantage.

**Stifler's Mom** · 09-22-2011, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by DaBullz

South Carolina -16 vs Vanderbilt

I see Vandy as the classic overvalued team that has had a few good wins(albiet against UCONN and Ole Miss teams that are in "rebuilding" to put it nicely). The 95 ypg rushing that their defense has allowed have been against the #77 and #99 rushing offenses and FCS Elon. I tend to take consensus numbers that I find online with a grain of salt but it seems like the public is liking Vandy in this game and I think that the bookies will clean up on this one if that really is the case(the line moved from -15 to -16 early on despite the public Vandy love).

Curious what everyone else thinks about these games...

I totally agree here. I'm guessing Vandy isn't near as good as their 3-0 record, and they've never been a good road team either. My instinct is that they get absolutely crushed this week, and the line seems to suggest the same.

--- WEEK 4 DISCUSSION ---