***The Knuckleballer's 2011-2012 NCAAF Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Many of you may have followed my posts over the last couple of seasons, but for those of you that have no clue what I'm talking about I have provided some background info. In summary, my passion for sports has led me to create a mathematical system designed to extrapolate value in Vegas’ lines. The system enables me to eliminate the lines that have little to any value and exploit the lines with a high probability of winning. Also, the system allows me to have an objective opinion and it mitigates the human element of handicapping. You must remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. My system gets stronger and stronger as the season wears on, because there is more and more relevant data to utilize.

Last year was tough. We finished the College Football season down 4.3 Units and the NFL season down 1.4 Units. Don't let this turn you away from following this thread. My system is designed to win over the long haul. The 2009-2010 College Football season ended up 38.4 Units, while the 2009-2010 NFL season added another 1.3 Units. Meaning that over the last two years we are up a total of 34 Units in College Football and NFL combined. This is not a magic formula, but it is consistent. Plus, unlike other handicappers that come and go, I am here to stay and I won't hide after a bad week, month, or year. I hope you enjoy the picks, and I look forward to hearing your comments. Good luck!!

[The Knuckleballer]

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Overall Record (0-0-0) 0 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (0-0) 0 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-0) 0 Units

Total Unit Based Record (0-0-0) 0 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (0.00%)

Finally, College Football season has arrived. Tonight, my system has three picks. My 3 Unit pick is UNLV +34.5. With the addition of Russell Wilson, Wisconsin is a team that has been overhyped throughout the offseason. Will Wisconsin have a great season? Likely. Will they win the Big 10? Maybe. Will they cover tonight's spread? Doubtful. My system has Wisconsin beating UNLV by the score of 45-17 and outgaining them by approximately 150 yards. Despite the huge disparity in yardage, UNLV will find a way to cover this spread. 60% of the public is on Wisconsin, yet we are seeing reverse line movement. This game is an opening day trap for the average joe. Good luck!

***3 Unit Pick***
UNLV +34.5

*1 Unit Picks*
North Texas +14
Memphis +29.5

[DukiesBaby]

1 question about your mathematical system, Where do your numbers come from for your system if this is game #1 of the season?

shouldnt you start your system in week #2 after you have some data to plug in your formula?

[The Knuckleballer]

DukiesBaby- Until Week 4 the majority of my data comes from previos seasons with adjustments made for increases and decreases in talent, quality and number of returning starters, home field advantage, etc... Like most mathematical models the more data the better, so I have years of data at my fingertips. Yes, my system is definitely more accurate mid-season than it is the first few weeks, because I have more data from the current season to utilize. That doesn't mean the first few weeks will not be profitable. I hope you enjoyed tonight's nailbiter. Good luck this weekend!

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Overall Record (1-2-0) .8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) 3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (0-0) 0 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-2) -2.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (3-2.2-0) .8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (57.69%)

Today should be an exciting start to the season. I have two 3 Unit Picks on the card, as well as a number of 2 Unit and 1 Unit Picks. In total, we have 30 Units at risk on this first Saturday of the College Football Season. As you can see, my system likes a lot of underdogs to keep it close today. Looking at Western Michigan against Michigan, I have this game capped at Michigan -5 with a very slight chance of Western Michigan pulling off the upset. My prediction is that Michigan will win by the score of 33-28 and outgain Western Michigan by about 15 yards, but don’t be suprised if the score ends up in favor of Western Michigan. As for MTSU, I have the game capped at Purdue -6. Good luck and enjoy today’s action!

***3 Unit Picks***
Middle Tennessee State University +16.5
Western Michigan +13.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Kent State +38
Florida Atlantic +35
UL Monroe +29
Troy +15.5
Arkansas State +20
Rice +24.5
UL Lafayette +38
Fresno State +10
Tulsa +25

*1 Unit Picks*
ECU +21
Minnesota +24
Houston -2.5
Buffalo +30.5
Oregon -3
Boise State -3

[The Knuckleballer]

Sunday, September 4, 2011

Overall Record (9-10-0) -3.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (2-0) 6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (2-7) -11.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (5-3) 1.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (15-18.7-0) -3.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (44.51%)

Yesterday was a long day. At times it looked as if we were going to have a great day, but we ended up down 4.5 Units on the day. Of note, the Western Michigan/Michigan pick was cancelled due to the cancellation of the game in the 3rd quarter. As for today, I have just one 2 Unit Pick. I have the total in the Marshall/West Virginia game capped at 44, which means that 53 is too high. Good luck, and I hope everyone is enjoying the games!

**2 Unit Picks**
Marshall/West Virginia Under 53.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Thursday, September 8, 2011

Who doesn't love Thursday night football? Tonight, I have Oklahoma State winning by no more than 8 points. In fact, there is a chance that we might even get to see an upset tonight. My predicted score for this game is 33-28 Oklahoma State. Arizona’s ability to keep this game within the number will depend primarily on their ability to convert 3rd downs. Last season, Arizona converted over 49% of their 3rd down attempts. Let’s hope that continues as the Wildcats travel to Stillwater. Good luck and enjoy the game!

***3 Unit Pick***
Arizona +13.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Friday, September 9, 2011

Overall Record (9-11-0) -7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (2-1) 2.7 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (2-7) -11.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (5-3) 1.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (15-22-0) -7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (40.54%)

Tough loss last night. The Wildcats did not show up to play. My system gave Arizona about a 91% chance of covering, but you always have to contend with that remaining 9%. Time to look towards the weekend. Tonight, I have one 1 Unit Pick. No time for a write up, but I will be back tomorrow picks and write ups. Good luck!

*1 Unit Pick*
Missouri +9

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday, September 10, 2011

Overall Record (10-11-0) -6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (2-1) 2.7 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (2-7) -11.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (6-3) 2.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (16-22-0) -6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (42.11%)

Below are today's picks. Sorry I posted so late, but I had some late night and early AM computer problems. I have two 4 Unit Picks, and I will try to provide some write ups later today if I get a free second. Good luck and enjoy the picks!

****4 Unit Picks****
Nevada +27
Ball State +20

***3 Unit Picks***
ECU +17
Georgia +3
North Texas +21

**2 Unit Picks**
NC State/Wake Forest Over 50.5
New Mexico State +20.5
MTSU +11
UTEP +19.5
Indiana +7
Fresno State +28.5
UAB +23.5
San Jose State +21

*1 Unit Picks*
Auburn +5.5
Central Michigan/Kentucky Over 48
Florida Atlantic +32.5
Hawaii +5.5
Southern Miss/Marshall Over 51
Northern Illinois -4.5
Northern Illinois/Kansas Under 62
UAB/Florida Over 53.5
UConn +2.5
Utah +8.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Overall Record (19-24-1) -14.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-2) -8.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (3-2-1) 2.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (8-9) -3.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (8-11) -4.1 Units

Total Unit Based Record (33-47.3-.3) -14.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (40.94%)

After struggling last Saturday, Week 3 has finally arrived. Today's card is stacked full of big plays. I have three 4 Unit Picks, two of which are UPSET ALERTS! Look for Temple to beat Penn State and Utah to upset BYU. I have both dogs covering and winning these matchups. As for my final 4 Unit Pick, I have Navy keeping it close against South Carolina. This will shock the SEC nation, but I have Navy losing by less than a touchdown. Even in a worst case scenario, my system doesn't see this game getting outside of 17 points. The score for my worst case scenario is South Carolina 35 and Navy 18. Thus, this is a strong 4 Unit Pick that was on the verge of becoming a 5 Unit Pick. Good luck and enjoy today's games!!

****4 Unit Picks****
Temple +7
Navy +16.5
Utah +3.5

***3 Unit Picks***
Eastern Michigan +28.5
Army +5
Arkansas State +24
Idaho +35.5
Louisville +4.5
Tulsa +13.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Wyoming +9.5
Miami Ohio +5
Kent State +17.5
UTEP +3

*1 Unit Picks*
West Virginia +2
West Virginia/Maryland Under 57
Ole Miss/Vanderbilt Over 47
Michigan State +5
Virginia +10.5
Tennessee +9.5
Akron +34
Nevada -6
Tulane +13
Houston/Louisiana Tech Under 69.5
North Texas +47
Ohio State +2
Syracuse +15

[The Knuckleballer]

Today should be fun. We are starting to accumulate some 2011 data and the "general public" is getting overconfident after two weeks of hanging with the oddsmakers. Today's card is filled with value. Good luck and enjoy the action!

P.S. I will be checking in from time to time today if you have any questions regarding specific games. I will be happy to share my line in relation to Vegas' line.

[jpix]

I always enjoy tracking this system...... and playing a few.....

thanks for the work..:thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Friday, September 23, 2011

Overall Record (33-36-1) 2.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) 3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-3-1) 13.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (10-11) -4.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (12-20) -10 Units

Total Unit Based Record (68-64.9-.3) 2.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.05%)

Last weekend was great. We picked up 17.4 Units and went 3-0 with our 4 Unit Picks and 5-1 with our 3 Unit Picks. Now we must move on to Week 4. Tonight, I am starting off the weekend with a strong 4 Unit Pick. I wish we had spotted this game earlier when the line was at UCF +3.5, but I still love this pick at UCF +2. I have this game capped at UCF -9 with a total of 44.5. The public loves BYU in this spot, but I fully expect UCF to win this game by 7+ points tonight. In fact, my system is giving a UCF a 66% chance of winning this game by at least 7 points. Should be a good start to another strong Saturday of College Football. Good luck and enjoy the pick!

****4 Unit Pick****
Central Florida +2

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Overall Record (33-37-1) -1.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-3) -1.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-3-1) 13.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (10-11) -4.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (12-20) -10 Units

Total Unit Based Record (68-69.3-.3) -1.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.42%)

Time to bounce back from a tough Friday night loss. UCF outgained BYU by 139 yards tonight, but 3 turnovers and a few special teams mistakes prevented them from winning. Saturday, I have my first 5 Unit Pick of the season with Missouri at +19.5. Even in a worst case scenario, my system doesn't have Missouri losing by more than 15 points. My system has this game capped as a pickem with a total of 48.5. Thus, I would recomend taking Missouri and the Under in this matchup. In fact, this game has the makings of a potential upset. I also have a couple of 4 Unit Picks and three 3 Unit Picks for your viewing pleasure. Enjoy the action and check out my NFL Picks on Sunday!

*****5 Unit Pick*****
Missouri +19.5

****4 Unit Picks****
Kansas State +12.5
Wyoming +21

***3 Unit Picks***
California +1
Tulsa +28
Missouri/Oklahoma Under 56.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Pitt +7
Ohio +4
Middle Tennessee State University +12.5
UL Lafayette +16.5
LA Tech +19.5
Kentucky +19.5
UTEP +29.5
Nebraska/Wyoming Under 58
Colorado State +10.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Eastern Michigan +28.5
Memphis +23.5
UCLA +4.5
Florida State +2.5
Arkansas +11
Tulane +10
Vanderbilt +15.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Thursday, September 29, 2011

Overall Record (45-47-1) 5.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) 5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-4) -1.6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-5-1) 10.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (17-13) 5.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (14-25) -13.5 Units

Total Unit Based Record (96-90.2-.3) 5.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.47%)

Last week, we put together a solid College Football and NFL performance picking up some Units in both sports and putting us back in the black. Tonight, I have UTEP covering with relative ease. My system has this game capped at Houston -6 with a total of 60. Steer clear of the total, but look to take UTEP at +17. Houston will likely outgain UTEP by about 70 yards, but UTEP should have very little trouble keeping this game within the number permitting that they don't lose the yardage battle by more than 140 yards. Good luck and enjoy the games!

****4 Unit Pick****
UTEP +17