***The Knuckleballer's 2011-2012 NCAAF Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Overall Record (46-47-1) 9.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) 5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-4) 2.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-5-1) 10.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (17-13) 5.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (14-25) -13.5 Units

Total Unit Based Record (100-90.2-.3) 9.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.49%)

We picked up a big 4 Unit win on Thursday. Now it's time to roll into Saturday and pick up some more Units as my system is starting to hit on all cylinders. Saturday's card is full of value. As usual we have a huge collection of plays, including two 5 Unit Picks. My system has Nevada covering with ease against Boise State. The line is currently at Boise State -27, but my system has this game capped at Boise State -10. In the worst case scenario for this matchup, my system has Boise State outgaining Nevada by 163 yards and winning by the score of 42-15. Thus, there is enough value in this line to make it a 5 Unit Pick. My other 5 Unit Picks is Idaho at +15.5. My system has this game capped at Virginia -1 with the Cavaliers having very little chance of covering the spread. In the worst case scenario for this matchup, my system has Virginia outgaining Idaho by 159 yards and winning by the score of 36-18. According to my system, this is highly unlikely. Take the points in each of these games and enjoy another great Saturday of College Football. Good luck!

*****5 Unit Picks*****
Nevada +27
Idaho +15.5

****4 Unit Pick****
NC State +10

***3 Unit Pick***
Purdue +12

**2 Unit Picks**
Texas A&M/Arkansas Under 62
Mississippi State +7
Minnesota +20
Buffalo +28.5
Buffalo/Tennessee Under 54.5
Akron +8.5
Kent State +15.5
Bowling Green/West Virginia Under 61
Ball State +39.5
North Texas +23
UAB +17
Hawaii +4.5
Oregon State +18

*1 Unit Picks*
Indiana +14.5
Texas Tech -6.5
Kentucky +30.5
Georgia Tech/NC State Under 63
Auburn +10.5
Arizona +12.5
Memphis +23.5
Nebraska +10

[The Knuckleballer]

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Overall Record (61-56-2) 20.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-0) 15 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-4-1) 2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-6-1) 6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (24-19) 6.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (20-27) -9.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (130-108.9-.7) 20.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.26%)

Last weekend was great. Now we are on to Week 6 of the College Football schedule. I have started plugging the numbers and this week's card is full of value. In fact, I have two 2 Unit Picks to help us get off to a good start this Thursday. Both Western Kentucky and Cal are underdogs, but my system has both teams covering with relative ease. I have the first came capped at MTSU -5.5 and the second game capped at Oregon -10.5. Good luck and enjoy the picks!

**2 Unit Picks**
Western Kentucky +11.5
California +24

[The Knuckleballer]

Friday, October 7, 2011

Overall Record (62-57-2) 20.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-0) 15 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-4-1) 2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-6-1) 6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (25-20) 6 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (20-27) -9.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (132-111.1-.7) 20.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.14%)

Tonight, I have one 2 Unit Pick as we gear up for a big Saturday full of picks. My system has tonight's game capped at Boise State -15 with a total of 58.5. Thus, you should ignore the total and take Fresno State at +21. Good luck and check back tomorrow morning for some more winners!

**2 Unit Pick**
Fresno State +21

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday, October 8, 2011

Overall Record (62-58-2) 18 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-0) 15 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-4-1) 2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-6-1) 6.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (25-21) 3.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (20-27) -9.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (132-113.3-.7) 18 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.66%)

We have a full card today with two 5 Unit Picks on tap. My first 5 Unit Pick is Boston College at +21. My system has this game capped at Clemson -5 with a total of 43. In the worst case scenario, my system has Clemson winning by 18 and outgaining Boston College by 107 yards. My second 5 Unit Pick is Connecticut at +19.5. My system has this game capped at West Virginia -4 with a total of 45.5. In the worst case scenario, I have West Virginia winning by exactly 19 and outgaining Connecticut by 167 yards. I hope you enjoy today's College Football action, and I encourage you to reach out to me with questions regarding specific games. Good luck!!

*****5 Unit Picks*****
Boston College +21
Connecticut +19.5

****4 Unit Pick****
Maryland +15

***3 Unit Picks***
Akron +17
Kent State +16.5
Iowa State +15.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Kentucky +21
Florida +13
Vanderbilt +29
Louisville +13.5
Connecticut/West Virginia Under 58
Eastern Michigan +21
Utah +3.5
Texas A&M/Texas Tech Under 72
Colorado +29
Ohio State +10
San Jose State +13.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Kentucky/South Carolina Over 42.5
Boston College/Clemson Under 52
Auburn +10
Washington State +3.5
Minnesota +14
Memphis +20.5
Indiana +14
Kansas +31
Iowa +4.5
Air Force +14
Marshall +19.5
Arkansas State -2.5
Texas Tech +9.5
Wyoming +12

[The Knuckleballer]

Thursday, October 13, 2011

Overall Record (73-78-2) -7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (6-4-1) 6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-8-1) 3.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (28-29) -7.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (26-35) -12.5 Units

Total Unit Based Record (151-157.3-.7) -7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.87%)

Last week was dreadful, but my system is ready to bounce back with some strong Week 7 picks. We will start it off with a small Thursday night winner. My system has the San Diego State/Air Force game capped at pickem, meaning neither team has a distinct advantage. Take the points and enjoy the football. Also, my system has a slight lean towards Cal at +3 at home against USC, but nothing strong enough to make it a play. Good luck!

*1 Unit Pick*
San Diego State +7

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday, October 15, 2011

Overall Record (74-78-2) -6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (6-4-1) 6 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-8-1) 3.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (28-29) -7.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (27-35) -11.5 Units

Total Unit Based Record (152-157.3-.7) -6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (49.03%)

Last week was dismal, but my system is ready to bounce back with some big winners in Week 7. I have just one 4 Unit Pick. Eastern Michigan is squaring off against in state rival, Central Michigan, and I expect the score to be closer than the "experts" think. My system has this game capped at Central Michigan +1.5, so I would encourage you to take the 12 points and watch for a potential UPSET. Good luck and enjoy Saturday's games!

****4 Unit Pick****
Eastern Michigan +12

***3 Unit Picks***
Utah +6
Memphis +14
UL Monroe +7.5
UAB +21
Arizona State +14

**2 Unit Picks**
Indiana +39.5
Indiana/Wisconsin Under 60.5
Buffalo +21
Duke +12
Colorado +16
Central Florida +3.5
Tennessee +17
Western Kentucky +2.5
New Mexico +29.5
Colorado State +32
Ole Miss +27.5
Wake Forest +6.5
Washington State +21
UAB/Tulsa Under 59
Kansas +35.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Purdue +12
Baylor +8
Rutgers -3.5
Rice +4.5
BYU +3.5
Utah State -3

[The Knuckleballer]

Friday, October 21, 2011

Overall Record (84-94-3) -17.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-4-1) 10 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-9-2) 8.7 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (31-41) -28.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (30-38) -11.8 Units

Total Unit Based Record (174-190.3-1) -17.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.63%)

Above is my updated record after a tough couple of weeks. Hopefully we can get back on track this weekend. Tonight, I have Rutgers winning by a touchdown. Take the points and enjoy the nice start to the weekend. Good luck and remember this is a marathon not a sprint!

*1 Unit Pick*
Rutgers +2

[rollin in it]

So, one thing I notice about your system is that it almost always seems to pick dogs. Why is that?

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday, October 22, 2011

Overall Record (84-94-4) -17.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-4-1) 10 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-9-2) 8.7 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (31-41) -28.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (30-38-1) -11.9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (174-190.3-1.1) -17.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.62%)

Missed field goals and turnovers killed us tonight. We were lucky to walk away with a push. On Saturday, I have two 4 Unit Picks. I have Boise State winning by just 20 points against Air Force. Also, I have Hawaii beating New Mexico State by just 8 points. Look for both of these dogs to cover the spread and help us recover from a rough two week stretch. Good luck and enjoy the action!

****4 Unit Picks****
Air Force +29
New Mexico State +21.5

***3 Unit Picks***
Eastern Michigan +12.5
Colorado +31
Rice +10.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Cincinnati +3
Buffalo +14
Boston College +21
Iowa State +20.5
Minnesota +24.5
Army +11
Tennessee +29.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Indiana +23.5
New Mexico +41
Georgia Tech +2.5
Maryland +18
ECU/Navy Under 64.5
Texas Tech +28.5
Washington State -3

[The Knuckleballer]

rollin in it: Good question. My system is designed from a contrarian view point. Thus, the math often leads us to go against teams that the public likes, and the public doesn't usually like underdogs. Occasionally, my system uncovers a favorite, but that is rare. Many times the lines are overinflated due to the public perception of a given team. Hope this answers your question. Good luck this weekend!

[The Knuckleballer]

Thursday, October 27, 2011

Overall Record (93-104-4) -15.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (9-4-1) 18 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (14-11-2) 5.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (35-44) -26.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (32-43-1) -15.4 Units

Total Unit Based Record (195-209-1.1) -15.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (48.14%)

The last few weeks have been tough, and we have failed to gain much traction. Tonight, I have a 3 Unit Pick on tap. I have tonight's Rice v. Houston game capped at Houston -24.5 with a total of 63.5. Stay away from the side on this game, but look to take the Under at 71.5. There is significant value in this line, and I will be shocked if this game goes over the posted total. Good luck and get ready for a big weekend!

***3 Unit Pick***
Rice/Houston Under 71.5

*1 Unit Pick*
Virginia +14

[joepa66]

Thanks Knucksey, liked the under on the Houston/Rice game from the get-go! Let's rock that thing and kill 'em on Saturday.....

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday, October 29, 2011

Overall Record (94-105-4) -17.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (3-2) 4 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (9-4-1) 18 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (14-12-2) 1.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (35-44) -26.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks* (33-43-1) -14.4 Units

Total Unit Based Record (196-212.3-1.1) -17.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.87%)

Way off on the Under in Thursday's game. Today, I have one 4 Unit Pick. My system has the New Mexico State capped at Nevada -6.5. Take the points and watch for New Mexico State to keep this game close. In fact, my system gives them a 17% chance of winning this game. Either way, 15.5 points is too many. Aside from my one 4 Unit pick, today's card is filled with 1 Unit and 2 Unit Picks. Good luck and enjoy the games!

****4 Unit Pick****
New Mexico State +15.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Washington State +34.5
Minnesota +15.5
Tulane +16.5
Rutgers +6.5
Ole Miss +12.5
Kansas +28
Wyoming +18.5

*1 Unit Picks*
NC State +18.5
New Mexico +30.5
Kansas State +13
Navy +22.5
Western Kentucky +6
Memphis +29.5
Colorado +31.5

[joepa66]

Damn total got covered by Houston themselves.....really liked that bait the other night! Oh well, GL today Knuckler! :thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Good luck today! As a general rule of thumb, my system does better on sides than totals. Why? I'm not sure yet. Always a work in progress.