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A Handicapper's Take on Bowl Game Odds
Nebraska minus-14, plus more bowl lines
by Chad Millman, Senior Deputy Editor for ESPN The Magazine
Motivation is a tricky thing to interpret. It's not like a reflection.
What makes me get up in the morning and want to succeed -- being able to pay my heating bill -- isn't necessarily what drives you, the degenerate (being able to gamble more), or Kobe Bryant (winning more rings than Jordan) or Mitch McConnell (I honestly have no idea).
But as I've spoken to more and more wiseguys during the bowl season, the one factor I hear them talk about more than any other is motivation. Forget stats or records or strength of schedule -- which are all important. When I ask someone which team they like in a game, their first response is, inevitably, "Well, what's so and so playing for?" I swear to God Lee Strasberg didn't examine Brando's motivation nearly as much.
And that's what has me thinking about how to intuit something as intangible as someone's desire to succeed. And I'm wondering, is it wise? I know it's sacrilege for me to question a theory that is steeped in years of history. Wiseguys don't pull these ideas out of the ether and then collude so they are disseminated amongst the masses. The motivation-to-win theory is tried and true in the gambling world, especially in college sports, both during the regular season and the bowl season. Now week to week, I think it makes sense to me. There are natural highs and lows during a season. But please forgive me for asking, does it make sense during the bowl season?
Teams have a month off to recuperate from injuries, coaches' slights and whatever else may ail them. That includes any disappointment they may have about playing in a lesser bowl than expected. This occurred to me while I was watching the Boise State Broncos beat up on the Utah Utes. In Bowl Betting Bonanza I, the handicapper I asked to preview the games, Paul Stone, was high on Utah. He wasn't worried about Terrance Cain at quarterback but was very worried that Boise would be disappointed to be playing in the MAACO Bowl and come out flat.
He was right, Boise did come out flat. But then the Broncos realized they were playing in a football game and after a quarter they looked like what they were: One of the best teams in the country, regardless of what the computers say. Now, who knows what would have happened if Boise was playing a team that could move five yards forward or catch a ball or not find a way to draw a flag on every big play. If Utah goes up by 14 in the first quarter instead of three, Stone looks like a genius and I am not having an existential crisis. Same is true if Utah sneaks through the back door that Boise couldn't close and scores on one of its many fourth-quarter near misses.
But none of that happened. It must have been when Boise safety George Iloka sacked Cain for the eight millionth time and jumped up looking like a pro that I thought, hmm, he looks really motivated. And motivation wasn't a factor in the Northern Illinois Huskies-Fresno State Bulldogs game, as many wiseguys expected. Nor did it impact the BYU Cougars-UTEP Miners bowl game.
Of course, it's still early in the bowl season. And there are lots of games where sharps are saying motivation is going to be a key factor in who wins and loses, who covers or doesn't. I believe in their logic, for now. But I'm on alert. And I'm highly motivated to prove them wrong if I have to.
Now, on to the show. Continuing with the "It's a Wonderful Life" theme that I began last week, here is a repeat of key elements from last season's Bowl Betting Bonanza II column. As you'll recall, in BBI, I listed some factors that handicappers consider during bowl season that make it unique. Motivation was one of those. The others were:
1. How a team ended the regular season: "Were they on a run to make the bowl or did they lose a lot?" says White.
2. How much time off a team has had before the bowl: "Ohio State has had horrible bowl experiences because it was off for so long. When you are not playing it's hard to simulate game speed. It's like walking on the highway at 30 mph," says White.
3. The weather on a school's respective campus: "The SEC, Pac-10, even the ACC tend to do better in the bowls than the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East. I think the warm weather has a lot to do with that. Thirty days of practice in warm weather before a bowl game helps you get a lot more done than practicing in a bubble or outside in a cold climate," says White.
In BBBII, I'm adding these fine chestnuts:
4. Throw away any games against non-bowl competition. "What you want to do is see how a team stepped up in class," says Vegas vet Bryan Leonard.
5. Emphasize a team's road performance over its home performance. The point is, for most teams, bowl games are road games.
For some help with the bowl games between now and Dec. 30, I went to Tom Stryker, Kenny White and Brian Edwards (BBBIII will feature the games between Dec. 31 and the BCS title game. BBBIV will be dedicated to Oregon-Auburn.)
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii Warriors vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Line: Hawaii minus-10.5
Over/under: 73
Stryker says: "The first thing I always do in the bowls, especially the early ones, is look to go against a favorite of seven or more. Historically, higher priced teams haven't been worth very much. However, this game gives me a little bit of pause. First, Hawaii is playing on its home field. Second, Hawaii throws the ball well, and Tulsa's secondary is suspect. But I have a scenario that I trust that points in Tulsa's direction: Bowl favorites priced at minus-7 or more facing an opponent that comes off of a straight-up win are 48-81 against the spread. Tulsa beat Southern Miss in the last game of the season and this is a relatively big number."
Little Caesars Bowl
Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Toledo Rockets
Line: Toledo minus-1.5
Over/under: 56.5
Stryker says: "These two teams played last year and Toledo won. So they know each other. But despite that and the fact the location favors Toledo, I will be on FIU. Since 2004 MAC bowl teams are 6-20 straight up and 7-18-1 against the spread, including 4-15 as underdogs of two or less. So I am really going against this conference in this situation. A big part of Toledo's success has been its plus turnover ratio, and if FIU can take care of the ball I think it will be all right."
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Air Force Falcons vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Line: Air Force minus-3
Over/under: 56
Stryker says: "There are a couple interesting situations here. You don't look to go against military teams in bowl games. They are 22-9 against the spread since 1980. However, that is a lot of underdog action and here Air Force is favored. I think that is wrong. If Joshua Nesbitt were lining up at quarterback I would be big on Tech. With Tevin Washington it's a smaller play for me. But still a play. You have Paul Johnson at Tech who, when he was with Navy, beat Air Force five times in a row. And as a dog he is 22-10 in his last 32 games."
Champs Sports Bowl
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Line: West Virginia minus-2.5
Over/under: 48.5
Stryker says: "I have a ton of respect for West Virginia's defense. That being said I will not take this Big East fave. In fact, NC State will be one of my bigger plays. O'Brien is a great bowl coach, 7-1 in bowl games against the spread. And I think NC State came on real strong, with wins over Wake and UNC in two of their final three games. I know West Virginia closed strong, too. But I don't think the Big East was that good this year and that makes for some value. Besides, I worry about motivation for West Virginia. Would you rather be playing in this game or in the BCS bowl?"
Insight Bowl
Missouri Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Line: Missouri minus-3
Over/under: 46.5
Stryker says: "I see this as an opportunity. First Iowa has all kinds of issues with its starting running back and receiver being out. And it hasn't closed the way you would like. But bowl dogs off of two or more straight up losses are 37-17 against the spread if their opponent is .625 or better. That scenario fits this game. And I like Iowa. One big reason is I love Kirk Ferentz. Given time to prepare he can make this situation work. And I think the fact there is some distance between the end of the season and the suspensions helps him settle his squad and get them focused. Also, Iowa doesn't lose games by a lot. Its biggest loss this year was seven at Arizona."
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
East Carolina Pirates vs. Maryland Terrapins
Line: Maryland minus-7
Over/under: 68
White says: "I think this team will play for Friedgen. They had a great year, he was the ACC coach of the year. Danny O'Brien has played some of his best games at the end, and that ECU defense is so bad. I know ECU is a high-scoring team so the defense is on the field a lot and gets worn down. But it gave up less than 30 points just three times this season. Plus it will be in D.C., so this will be a pro-Maryland crowd. Overall, the athletes for Maryland are better and with motivation being so important in bowl games, I think you take your shot with the Terps."
Texas Bowl
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Baylor Bears
Line: Baylor minus-1.5
Over/under: 62
Edwards says: "For this game I am not really looking at the side. The game is in Houston so location is better for Baylor. And so is motivation because Baylor hasn't been to a bowl since 1994. But the over is on a 7-1 run for Baylor and 5-1 run for Illinois. The Baylor defense gave up 42 or more points in four of its last five. And Illinois scored more than 40 in four of its last six. Baylor has actually had a few over/unders in the 70s, so this is low for them."
Valero Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Arizona Wildcats
Line: Oklahoma State minus-5.5
Over/under: 66
Edwards says: "You look at this and you are like, Man, I like Oklahoma State. And I do, but with caution. The Cowboys were 10-1 to end the season and then lost to Oklahoma at home in a game that could have sent them to the Big 12 championship. To go from that, and potentially a BCS bowl, to playing a 7-5 Arizona team is a letdown. Motivation-wise, the edge is to Arizona, and that is the way the money has gone. But I have to go with Oklahoma State. It has a lot of quality wins and Arizona really doesn't. In fact, Zona lost four in a row down the stretch."
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Army Black Knights vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs
Line: SMU minus-7
Over/under: 52
White says: "I had no play on this game, but I lean towards Army. Military academies as underdogs are great plays in bowl games because they tend to be very disciplined and very well prepared. They also tend to control the ball, which keeps games close to the number. I also think the motivation play is with Army. June Jones has done a great job with SMU and their expectations now are to play in the postseason. But Army hasn't been to a bowl in more than a decade, so they will be pumped. I side with the points here."
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Syracuse Orange
Line: Pick
Over/under: 47.5
White says: "This game opened Kansas State minus-3. I'm not sure how the fans are going to travel for the Wildcats. But I know, being played in Yankee Stadium, that it's going to feel like a home game for Syracuse. And that's why the game moved. I think it will be Syracuse winning the game. When Syracuse plays at the Carrier Dome and is good, that can be a 4-5 point advantage. It's hard to say what that equals at Yankee Stadium, but the fans are passionate, so I think it's worth two or three. I don't think that was calculated into the line when the game opened, and that's why it moved the way it did."
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Line: UNC minus-2
Over/under: 50
Edwards says: "There is a huge alumni base for Tennessee in Nashville, obviously, so this is basically a home game. Location to UT. And motivation goes to the Vols, too. They are going to a bowl game after what began as a nightmare year. They were 2-6 and won their last four games with a freshman quarterback to get to 6-6. They also covered their final five games. I really like the quarterback, Tyler Bray. He threw for more than 300 in three of those final four games. But, all that said, I will pass on the side. I like the over. Five of the last seven games for Tennessee went over 51. And UNC did that twice in its final four."
Bridgepoint Education Holiday
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Washington Huskies
Line: Nebraska minus-14
Over/under: 53
White says: "I always love teams that have something to prove. And I think Washington has something to prove. And I think Jake Locker has something to prove. Also, double-digit dogs before New Year's Day cover at around 60 percent. Washington was not well prepared when these two teams met in Seattle earlier this year. But the Huskies finished really strong and they know exactly what Nebraska is going to do. Their game plan is the same as it was early in the season. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers are a team that believed it could be playing in a BCS bowl, not before New Year's Day. I am taking the points, as many as I can get."
by Chad Millman, Senior Deputy Editor for ESPN The Magazine
Motivation is a tricky thing to interpret. It's not like a reflection.
What makes me get up in the morning and want to succeed -- being able to pay my heating bill -- isn't necessarily what drives you, the degenerate (being able to gamble more), or Kobe Bryant (winning more rings than Jordan) or Mitch McConnell (I honestly have no idea).
But as I've spoken to more and more wiseguys during the bowl season, the one factor I hear them talk about more than any other is motivation. Forget stats or records or strength of schedule -- which are all important. When I ask someone which team they like in a game, their first response is, inevitably, "Well, what's so and so playing for?" I swear to God Lee Strasberg didn't examine Brando's motivation nearly as much.
And that's what has me thinking about how to intuit something as intangible as someone's desire to succeed. And I'm wondering, is it wise? I know it's sacrilege for me to question a theory that is steeped in years of history. Wiseguys don't pull these ideas out of the ether and then collude so they are disseminated amongst the masses. The motivation-to-win theory is tried and true in the gambling world, especially in college sports, both during the regular season and the bowl season. Now week to week, I think it makes sense to me. There are natural highs and lows during a season. But please forgive me for asking, does it make sense during the bowl season?
Teams have a month off to recuperate from injuries, coaches' slights and whatever else may ail them. That includes any disappointment they may have about playing in a lesser bowl than expected. This occurred to me while I was watching the Boise State Broncos beat up on the Utah Utes. In Bowl Betting Bonanza I, the handicapper I asked to preview the games, Paul Stone, was high on Utah. He wasn't worried about Terrance Cain at quarterback but was very worried that Boise would be disappointed to be playing in the MAACO Bowl and come out flat.
He was right, Boise did come out flat. But then the Broncos realized they were playing in a football game and after a quarter they looked like what they were: One of the best teams in the country, regardless of what the computers say. Now, who knows what would have happened if Boise was playing a team that could move five yards forward or catch a ball or not find a way to draw a flag on every big play. If Utah goes up by 14 in the first quarter instead of three, Stone looks like a genius and I am not having an existential crisis. Same is true if Utah sneaks through the back door that Boise couldn't close and scores on one of its many fourth-quarter near misses.
But none of that happened. It must have been when Boise safety George Iloka sacked Cain for the eight millionth time and jumped up looking like a pro that I thought, hmm, he looks really motivated. And motivation wasn't a factor in the Northern Illinois Huskies-Fresno State Bulldogs game, as many wiseguys expected. Nor did it impact the BYU Cougars-UTEP Miners bowl game.
Of course, it's still early in the bowl season. And there are lots of games where sharps are saying motivation is going to be a key factor in who wins and loses, who covers or doesn't. I believe in their logic, for now. But I'm on alert. And I'm highly motivated to prove them wrong if I have to.
Now, on to the show. Continuing with the "It's a Wonderful Life" theme that I began last week, here is a repeat of key elements from last season's Bowl Betting Bonanza II column. As you'll recall, in BBI, I listed some factors that handicappers consider during bowl season that make it unique. Motivation was one of those. The others were:
1. How a team ended the regular season: "Were they on a run to make the bowl or did they lose a lot?" says White.
2. How much time off a team has had before the bowl: "Ohio State has had horrible bowl experiences because it was off for so long. When you are not playing it's hard to simulate game speed. It's like walking on the highway at 30 mph," says White.
3. The weather on a school's respective campus: "The SEC, Pac-10, even the ACC tend to do better in the bowls than the Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East. I think the warm weather has a lot to do with that. Thirty days of practice in warm weather before a bowl game helps you get a lot more done than practicing in a bubble or outside in a cold climate," says White.
In BBBII, I'm adding these fine chestnuts:
4. Throw away any games against non-bowl competition. "What you want to do is see how a team stepped up in class," says Vegas vet Bryan Leonard.
5. Emphasize a team's road performance over its home performance. The point is, for most teams, bowl games are road games.
For some help with the bowl games between now and Dec. 30, I went to Tom Stryker, Kenny White and Brian Edwards (BBBIII will feature the games between Dec. 31 and the BCS title game. BBBIV will be dedicated to Oregon-Auburn.)
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii Warriors vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Line: Hawaii minus-10.5
Over/under: 73
Stryker says: "The first thing I always do in the bowls, especially the early ones, is look to go against a favorite of seven or more. Historically, higher priced teams haven't been worth very much. However, this game gives me a little bit of pause. First, Hawaii is playing on its home field. Second, Hawaii throws the ball well, and Tulsa's secondary is suspect. But I have a scenario that I trust that points in Tulsa's direction: Bowl favorites priced at minus-7 or more facing an opponent that comes off of a straight-up win are 48-81 against the spread. Tulsa beat Southern Miss in the last game of the season and this is a relatively big number."
Little Caesars Bowl
Florida International Golden Panthers vs. Toledo Rockets
Line: Toledo minus-1.5
Over/under: 56.5
Stryker says: "These two teams played last year and Toledo won. So they know each other. But despite that and the fact the location favors Toledo, I will be on FIU. Since 2004 MAC bowl teams are 6-20 straight up and 7-18-1 against the spread, including 4-15 as underdogs of two or less. So I am really going against this conference in this situation. A big part of Toledo's success has been its plus turnover ratio, and if FIU can take care of the ball I think it will be all right."
AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Air Force Falcons vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Line: Air Force minus-3
Over/under: 56
Stryker says: "There are a couple interesting situations here. You don't look to go against military teams in bowl games. They are 22-9 against the spread since 1980. However, that is a lot of underdog action and here Air Force is favored. I think that is wrong. If Joshua Nesbitt were lining up at quarterback I would be big on Tech. With Tevin Washington it's a smaller play for me. But still a play. You have Paul Johnson at Tech who, when he was with Navy, beat Air Force five times in a row. And as a dog he is 22-10 in his last 32 games."
Champs Sports Bowl
West Virginia Mountaineers vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
Line: West Virginia minus-2.5
Over/under: 48.5
Stryker says: "I have a ton of respect for West Virginia's defense. That being said I will not take this Big East fave. In fact, NC State will be one of my bigger plays. O'Brien is a great bowl coach, 7-1 in bowl games against the spread. And I think NC State came on real strong, with wins over Wake and UNC in two of their final three games. I know West Virginia closed strong, too. But I don't think the Big East was that good this year and that makes for some value. Besides, I worry about motivation for West Virginia. Would you rather be playing in this game or in the BCS bowl?"
Insight Bowl
Missouri Tigers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Line: Missouri minus-3
Over/under: 46.5
Stryker says: "I see this as an opportunity. First Iowa has all kinds of issues with its starting running back and receiver being out. And it hasn't closed the way you would like. But bowl dogs off of two or more straight up losses are 37-17 against the spread if their opponent is .625 or better. That scenario fits this game. And I like Iowa. One big reason is I love Kirk Ferentz. Given time to prepare he can make this situation work. And I think the fact there is some distance between the end of the season and the suspensions helps him settle his squad and get them focused. Also, Iowa doesn't lose games by a lot. Its biggest loss this year was seven at Arizona."
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
East Carolina Pirates vs. Maryland Terrapins
Line: Maryland minus-7
Over/under: 68
White says: "I think this team will play for Friedgen. They had a great year, he was the ACC coach of the year. Danny O'Brien has played some of his best games at the end, and that ECU defense is so bad. I know ECU is a high-scoring team so the defense is on the field a lot and gets worn down. But it gave up less than 30 points just three times this season. Plus it will be in D.C., so this will be a pro-Maryland crowd. Overall, the athletes for Maryland are better and with motivation being so important in bowl games, I think you take your shot with the Terps."
Texas Bowl
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Baylor Bears
Line: Baylor minus-1.5
Over/under: 62
Edwards says: "For this game I am not really looking at the side. The game is in Houston so location is better for Baylor. And so is motivation because Baylor hasn't been to a bowl since 1994. But the over is on a 7-1 run for Baylor and 5-1 run for Illinois. The Baylor defense gave up 42 or more points in four of its last five. And Illinois scored more than 40 in four of its last six. Baylor has actually had a few over/unders in the 70s, so this is low for them."
Valero Alamo Bowl
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Arizona Wildcats
Line: Oklahoma State minus-5.5
Over/under: 66
Edwards says: "You look at this and you are like, Man, I like Oklahoma State. And I do, but with caution. The Cowboys were 10-1 to end the season and then lost to Oklahoma at home in a game that could have sent them to the Big 12 championship. To go from that, and potentially a BCS bowl, to playing a 7-5 Arizona team is a letdown. Motivation-wise, the edge is to Arizona, and that is the way the money has gone. But I have to go with Oklahoma State. It has a lot of quality wins and Arizona really doesn't. In fact, Zona lost four in a row down the stretch."
Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Army Black Knights vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs
Line: SMU minus-7
Over/under: 52
White says: "I had no play on this game, but I lean towards Army. Military academies as underdogs are great plays in bowl games because they tend to be very disciplined and very well prepared. They also tend to control the ball, which keeps games close to the number. I also think the motivation play is with Army. June Jones has done a great job with SMU and their expectations now are to play in the postseason. But Army hasn't been to a bowl in more than a decade, so they will be pumped. I side with the points here."
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Syracuse Orange
Line: Pick
Over/under: 47.5
White says: "This game opened Kansas State minus-3. I'm not sure how the fans are going to travel for the Wildcats. But I know, being played in Yankee Stadium, that it's going to feel like a home game for Syracuse. And that's why the game moved. I think it will be Syracuse winning the game. When Syracuse plays at the Carrier Dome and is good, that can be a 4-5 point advantage. It's hard to say what that equals at Yankee Stadium, but the fans are passionate, so I think it's worth two or three. I don't think that was calculated into the line when the game opened, and that's why it moved the way it did."
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Tennessee Volunteers
Line: UNC minus-2
Over/under: 50
Edwards says: "There is a huge alumni base for Tennessee in Nashville, obviously, so this is basically a home game. Location to UT. And motivation goes to the Vols, too. They are going to a bowl game after what began as a nightmare year. They were 2-6 and won their last four games with a freshman quarterback to get to 6-6. They also covered their final five games. I really like the quarterback, Tyler Bray. He threw for more than 300 in three of those final four games. But, all that said, I will pass on the side. I like the over. Five of the last seven games for Tennessee went over 51. And UNC did that twice in its final four."
Bridgepoint Education Holiday
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Washington Huskies
Line: Nebraska minus-14
Over/under: 53
White says: "I always love teams that have something to prove. And I think Washington has something to prove. And I think Jake Locker has something to prove. Also, double-digit dogs before New Year's Day cover at around 60 percent. Washington was not well prepared when these two teams met in Seattle earlier this year. But the Huskies finished really strong and they know exactly what Nebraska is going to do. Their game plan is the same as it was early in the season. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers are a team that believed it could be playing in a BCS bowl, not before New Year's Day. I am taking the points, as many as I can get."
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