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A few on my card for Saturday. Interesting card in my opinion because I don't see as many home dogs that I like their spots as usual. With the strange matchups I have a different feeling card but overall I think there are a handful of pretty nice plays. Here's what I got and a little something with each.
Auburn -5' 3 Units
I think this is the best offense that LSU has faced, I think Auburn has faced a much tougher schedule and in that some quality offenses (Kentucky and Arkansas) and solid D's (South Carolina and at times Clemson). Auburn's defense has struggled at times but that was against better offenses and more specifically accurate pocket passers. LSU doesn't have that and I think they will struggle to keep up with Auburn. Auburn won't just roll up on LSU but I think Newton will show his passing ability (if he is smart enough to stay away from Patterson) and should have lanes to through if LSU attempts to stop the run. On the other side I like how Auburn has the ability to create turnovers and Jefferson is prone to giving it up. If Lee gets more of the time he has passing skills but he isn't nearly as talented as Arkansas's qb's. And if Auburn is up 3-7 in the late going I don't expect Les Miles to have all of a sudden mastered the art of clock management. I think LSU's clock strikes midnight in a big way with a DD loss here.
Arizona St +130 3 Units
I really like this club. I think Ericson coaches them up well and with their overall team speed and offensive efficiency I like their chances to make some big plays. Cal has been up and down but ASU has been pretty solid against the run and with an extra week I expect a solid effort from ASU. They are a well coached group that won't be surprised. I don't know what Cal brings to the table after getting taken to the woodshed last week. Tough emotional turnaround after a game that had to have circled.
Georgia Tech +5 2 Units
This game for me comes down to two key areas, first can GT run the ball? I think they can and I think the key is the last two games allowing them a chance to get a rhythm on offense. I think their elevated confidence and better precision on offense will help them against Clemson. The 2nd key area is Clemson's passing game. If they can gouge GT for big plays I think they can score quickly. But with the majority of their effective passing game being the short to intermediate type I think that plays into GT's hands. If GT loses it will be because they allow Clemson to get over the top for 2-3 big plays.
Iowa -6' 2 Units
I think it's a little bit of a letdown spot for Wisky although I do think they are improving team now that Gilreath and Toon are back. That being said after they jumped on OSU they really struggled to continue the excellence. This line seems generous enough to draw Wisky bets in a percieved low scoring tight game. I think Iowa was a little overwhelmed by the Michigan athleticism last week but that shouldn't be a problem here. I like the tough, well coached Iowa defense to contain the Wisky running game and force the passing game to win it. It has been their game plan the last two years and both times Wisky threw plenty of picks. I look for more of the same with Iowa winning the turnover battle and the game. Stanzi is underrated for his offensive balance.
UNC +6' 2 Units
These are two teams with very different public perceptions. I like UNC's style of play and their improving balance on offense. I think they have fought hard through the suspensions while slowly getting players back. I expect them to put up a good effort. If Yates plays relatively mistake free I think they move the ball and win the turnover battle. Harris has been to inconsistent and I think based on his comments the critics are bothering him and his focus. If Miami wins it will be because they shutdown Yates and Harris goes nuts. I'm willing to take that chance.
Georgia -4 3 Units
UK has been great the last two weeks but they also caught several breaks. I think Georgia has their way offensively with AJ Green back. If UK doesn't bring a safety into the box I think UGA runs it like USC and Florida did out of more conventional sets. If they bring the safety up I think AJ Green and Kris Durham have a field day over the top. How many times can Cobb save UK? I think he runs out of gas against a team that should be more rested after two big wins and starting to right their ship.
Missouri +120 2 Units
I think Oklahoma is overrated thanks to the FSU game and I think Missouri is more than capable of moving the ball up and down the field like Cincy did. I think Missouri gets enough on the ground to keep drives going and the emotions of homecoming help keep the effort up. I think it will be obvious in the first quarter if Missouri can move the ball and if they make a game of it. If OU shuts down their offense like Nebraska or Texas last year it will get ugly. But I don't think OU's defensive consistency will do that.
I also am considering MSU/NW. It seems obvious that MSU should handle them but it is a letdown spot. I can't tell yet if I think Northwestern is getting too much support for that reason and gets run down in the second half. I don't think NW belongs in a spot where they deserve to be getting less than a td to an upper echelon big 10 team. But it does look a little too easy and that gives me pause on MSU.
glta
Auburn -5' 3 Units
I think this is the best offense that LSU has faced, I think Auburn has faced a much tougher schedule and in that some quality offenses (Kentucky and Arkansas) and solid D's (South Carolina and at times Clemson). Auburn's defense has struggled at times but that was against better offenses and more specifically accurate pocket passers. LSU doesn't have that and I think they will struggle to keep up with Auburn. Auburn won't just roll up on LSU but I think Newton will show his passing ability (if he is smart enough to stay away from Patterson) and should have lanes to through if LSU attempts to stop the run. On the other side I like how Auburn has the ability to create turnovers and Jefferson is prone to giving it up. If Lee gets more of the time he has passing skills but he isn't nearly as talented as Arkansas's qb's. And if Auburn is up 3-7 in the late going I don't expect Les Miles to have all of a sudden mastered the art of clock management. I think LSU's clock strikes midnight in a big way with a DD loss here.
Arizona St +130 3 Units
I really like this club. I think Ericson coaches them up well and with their overall team speed and offensive efficiency I like their chances to make some big plays. Cal has been up and down but ASU has been pretty solid against the run and with an extra week I expect a solid effort from ASU. They are a well coached group that won't be surprised. I don't know what Cal brings to the table after getting taken to the woodshed last week. Tough emotional turnaround after a game that had to have circled.
Georgia Tech +5 2 Units
This game for me comes down to two key areas, first can GT run the ball? I think they can and I think the key is the last two games allowing them a chance to get a rhythm on offense. I think their elevated confidence and better precision on offense will help them against Clemson. The 2nd key area is Clemson's passing game. If they can gouge GT for big plays I think they can score quickly. But with the majority of their effective passing game being the short to intermediate type I think that plays into GT's hands. If GT loses it will be because they allow Clemson to get over the top for 2-3 big plays.
Iowa -6' 2 Units
I think it's a little bit of a letdown spot for Wisky although I do think they are improving team now that Gilreath and Toon are back. That being said after they jumped on OSU they really struggled to continue the excellence. This line seems generous enough to draw Wisky bets in a percieved low scoring tight game. I think Iowa was a little overwhelmed by the Michigan athleticism last week but that shouldn't be a problem here. I like the tough, well coached Iowa defense to contain the Wisky running game and force the passing game to win it. It has been their game plan the last two years and both times Wisky threw plenty of picks. I look for more of the same with Iowa winning the turnover battle and the game. Stanzi is underrated for his offensive balance.
UNC +6' 2 Units
These are two teams with very different public perceptions. I like UNC's style of play and their improving balance on offense. I think they have fought hard through the suspensions while slowly getting players back. I expect them to put up a good effort. If Yates plays relatively mistake free I think they move the ball and win the turnover battle. Harris has been to inconsistent and I think based on his comments the critics are bothering him and his focus. If Miami wins it will be because they shutdown Yates and Harris goes nuts. I'm willing to take that chance.
Georgia -4 3 Units
UK has been great the last two weeks but they also caught several breaks. I think Georgia has their way offensively with AJ Green back. If UK doesn't bring a safety into the box I think UGA runs it like USC and Florida did out of more conventional sets. If they bring the safety up I think AJ Green and Kris Durham have a field day over the top. How many times can Cobb save UK? I think he runs out of gas against a team that should be more rested after two big wins and starting to right their ship.
Missouri +120 2 Units
I think Oklahoma is overrated thanks to the FSU game and I think Missouri is more than capable of moving the ball up and down the field like Cincy did. I think Missouri gets enough on the ground to keep drives going and the emotions of homecoming help keep the effort up. I think it will be obvious in the first quarter if Missouri can move the ball and if they make a game of it. If OU shuts down their offense like Nebraska or Texas last year it will get ugly. But I don't think OU's defensive consistency will do that.
I also am considering MSU/NW. It seems obvious that MSU should handle them but it is a letdown spot. I can't tell yet if I think Northwestern is getting too much support for that reason and gets run down in the second half. I don't think NW belongs in a spot where they deserve to be getting less than a td to an upper echelon big 10 team. But it does look a little too easy and that gives me pause on MSU.
glta
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