Week October 11-17 Discussion

[FlyersFan]

some good stuff last week....nice call by wonka on the ND under which i did play so thanks.....:thumbs:

so here i will lead off with my WTF??????? of the week.........how in the world has the University of Arizona earned the right to open a 25 point road favorite?? I had OREST last week and I knew that game would be close....but seriously...this is an Arizona team that has led @ HOME in Pac25 play for a GRAND TOTAL....................of 1 minute in 2 games.....:dunno:....now they go on the road to play a Wazzu team that isn't winning but they sure aren't getting obliterated either. Arizona's defensive numbers were so skewed due to playing ****adel and Toledo to start the year......they got absolutely shredded offensively in that game and couldn't get a stop at any point when they needed it. Wazzu isn't rolling over for teams and I wouldn't be surprised if this isn't a decently close game for most of the time. I think the oddsmakers are still off on Arizona.

Curious to hear thoughts on that line and the game above...:thumbs:

Also, i got nothing but wooohooooo text pages from OSU fans saying "we're #1 now"....that is the last thing they needed going to Wisconsin this weekend to play the Fighting poor sports of Wisconsin. My hope is that OSU is up by about 40 in the 4th quarter and then punches in a 2 point conversion on fat dick head and then says "that's what the chart said to do"....... But I honestly think this is a close football game. Oddsmaker is leaning OSU or the line wouldn't have opened -6.........

Iowa -4 @ Michigan..........2 weeks to prepare on the Iowa side. I think Michigan got exposed and MSU's defense isn't half of what Iowa will bring to the table. I like IOWA in this one at first glance.


haven't looked at much but wanted to get this started.......

[rocjones]

Hmmmmm

i think its a more of a ARIZONA lost so they'll be out for blood factor...an WASH ST u never know what u might get...Line will be 21-24 by friday...As for as MICHIGAN i like them over IOWA...I think RICH ROD and SHOELACES get it 2gether this week..Time to go air....

[rocjones]

i actually think OSU will win by two tds....OSU will take CLAY out the game..an TOLIZEIN or whatever isnt all that impressive...It was genius to use SAINE in the passin game:thumbs: OSU 35 BADGERS 17

[Underdog88]

Oddsmaker is leaning OSU or the line wouldn't have opened -6.........

I was leaning on making a rare straight ML fave play there if I can get -220 or less. Did it with Arkansas last weekend, and think it's a solid play this week.



Arkansas- I think Auburn is living on borrowed time. I think they lose here, if not they lose next week vs LSU. The Cocks put up 27 on Auburn (Garcia threw for 3 tds).... Mallet should be able to move the ball. I think Arky puts up 28+, can't see the team total being under 31 here. Big concern with the Razorbacks is penalties (13 for 108 yds last week), obviously outside of containing Newton.


Kentucky- SCar just knocked off the #1, just a tiny bit of letdown possibility here. Thought Kentucky had a shot last week with the su win, think the same about this one....

[rocjones]

:thumbs:UNDERDOG i like ARKANSAS...MALLET will carve AUBURN secondary.on the other hand...I just think SCAR has to much defense even if GARCIA has a subpar game...LATTIMOREwill have a field day with WILDCATS soft DEFENSE..call me CRAZY but i think TEXAS will cover and slow down MR>MARTINEZ....force NEBRASKA to pass..somthing they dont do much... an i definetly like NEVADA over HAWAII:thumbs:...NEVADA rolls.....

[hodown]

Agree 100% on Arkansas, Kentucky, and Iowa. It would've been an even better spot had Michigan won last weekend, but our defense is a contain defense which should match up well with Michigan. MSU bottled them up and MSU's defense is only above average imo. It's a tough higher than I thought for the line but that's okay.

Agree with Auburn on borrowed time. They've fought hard to win games and I admire that, but they're going down this week. Arkansas didn't impress as much as I'd thought, but I can understand a bit of a look ahead. And at risk of sounding like a broken record, Arkansas' defense is under appreciated. Auburn's is not.

SC in a bad spot, and Kentucky has shown their worth at home. There's atleast 2 or 3 points of value in the line.

I pegged OSU at -3 and was ready to jump on OSU. This is going to be a damn tough game and I don't see value at -6, but I still think OSU wins the game regardless of spread.

I like seeing A&M as the favorite against Mizzou, Vegas is taking a stand. A&M coming off two tough losses in a row but the program didn't have massive expectations coming into the year so I still think there's fight in them.

I'm curious to see how Nebraska handles a defense that's above junior high level, but obviously my dislike for them has clouded my judgement so their games are no plays for me until further notice.

I think it'll be a small card for me this week, just not too much that jumps out at me. I'd say leans are:

Iowa -3.5 @ Mich
Ark +3 @ Aubn
Mizzou @ A&M -3
SC @ Kentucky +6

[Underdog88]

I like Hawaii+pts, and will likely throw down on the moneyline as well. Nevada is overhyped and has played nobody, plus Hawaii has revenge from the 10 pt loss last season @Nev. Over of course has to get a look from me, both teams should score.

I like Texas to keep it tight, looking at the pts there.

[rocjones]

NEVADA BEAT CAL......

[Underdog88]

NEVADA BEAT CAL......

who has Cal beat again?

[rocjones]

YEAH I LIKE MIZZOU...TEXAS TECH...TEXAS....SCAR

[Underdog88]

Speaking of Cal, I think they lose to the Trojans this week

[rocjones]

GOOD 1 UNDERDOGG....CAL IS TRASH:bang:...AN HOW IS PURDUE FAVORED..I KNO MINNESOTE AINT ALL THAT..BUT PURDUE TRASH TO..

[FlyersFan]

also don't agree with the initial line move in the OREST/WASH game.....opened pick and up to OREST -2 1/2.....i had OREST last week, but don't like the spot for them this week. For openers, Rogers is most likely out for the season and he wastheir big play WR. OREST going on the road for the 2nd week in a row in conference and off an upset of overrated #9 Arizona. Washington coming off of a home loss to ASU. I think this is a case of what was the last thing you saw. That will be a 7:15PM kick @ Washington who really needs this game big time. I think it's a good spot to take WASH as a home dog, and even better if that line gets to +3.

Chalkdog- i had HAW circled after watching UNR live last night......and that game should have gone over BTW....really bizarre game with 3 TD's called back by UNR on the same drive and the INT"s and turnovers in the redzone.....these teams will put up points this week. A bad SJSU team gashed UNR on mulitple occasions and HAW will do the same. Even the UNR announcers were saying how tough that game will be next weekend. HAW and OVER in that one IMO.

Another line i found interesting is the ILL/MSU line with MSU -7.5.......some dynamics in that one...you have MSU off of 2 straight huge wins over Wiskydick and michigan, while ILL comes in off of an upset win @ PSU (still not convinced PSU is not garbage this year, though) and a tough fought loss @ home to OSU. Will MSU let down or will ILL run out of gas playing their 3rd straight tough opponent. I tend to think MSU gets it done and the 7.5 is asking for ILL money IMO. Tough game and probably one i will leave alone but i was intrigued by the varying dynamics in that one......

SDSU +4 @ home to AFA......i mean last week they are going to BYU and are a 5.5 point favorite and now they are a 4 point dog @ home to AFA. I honestly don't think the oddsmaker knows what to do with SDSU. I actually am debating an SDSU play grabbing a FG+ as a home dog.

some bounce back lines....Florida -9.5 bet down to 8 early....Alabama opened 19 and up to 20 (sabin factor i guess).....Clemson opened 12 and up to 14.5....somiss after blowing a 20-0 first quarter lead on some just bonehead penalties/plays opened 14.5 and early money up to 15......


I did jump on Wazzu as i think that line is going to go down as the week goes on.....i may lose that game and Arizona may prove me wrong but i think they are the most overrated team in the top25 IMO.

[FlyersFan]

GOOD 1 UNDERDOGG....CAL IS TRASH:bang:...AN HOW IS PURDUE FAVORED..I KNO MINNESOTE AINT ALL THAT..BUT PURDUE TRASH TO..

Purdue isn't trash...they have some key injuries and are playing a RSFreshman QB i believe....their O-line is weak but improving IMO. Oddsmaker knows all of this too so it isn't like they are giving away free money. Just like the TENN game last week....:thumbs:...remember how UGA was trash and there was no way they were going to win.......not sure if i get involved in that one, as PUR has no passing game and their pass D is suspect IMO which is MINN strength (if there is one), but MINN doesn't excite me as a small road dog....and early money in on PUR.....

[FlyersFan]

I was leaning on making a rare straight ML fave play there if I can get -220 or less. Did it with Arkansas last weekend, and think it's a solid play this week.

gonna be a battle of the OSU rush D versus the Wisky Rush offense IMO. The interesting thing is that OSU is 5-1 ATS and Wiskydick is 1-5 ATS.....some early money in on Wisconsin......