Week October 11-17 Discussion

[FlyersFan]

NEVADA -10..(will run HAWAII in 2 the ground)......:

and HAW won't do the same to UNR??.......let me be the first to tell you after watching them live that their defense is small and can be pushed around...HAW will throw it all over UNR and I think this line is way off....i honestly wouldn't be surprised to see a HAW upset in this one. I will look at the HAW TT as well when it comes out.

[FlyersFan]

Oklahoma St +3 at Texas Tech? What has TT done deserve to be a favorite over a ranked opponent?

ok but here's the flip side.......but honestly, what has OKST done this year either....:dunno:.....they have beaten no one IMO.....Wazzu, Tulsa, Troy, ULL....:dunno:...yes they beat A&M but i wasn't impressed.....game filled with a million turnovers...they are ranked #22 basically by default as an undefeated team in week 7

This is their first real road game against a decent team AND....they do have Nebraska at home on deck so there is always the possibility of catching them peeking at the schedule. I think this line is spot on.....might be a last team with the ball wins type game like the TXAM/OKST game.....i imagine the books will price us out of an over play here like they did in the MichSt/michigan game....tough game to call IMO. When neither team can stop anyone i really don't know how you handicap that except for looking for some form of an over if the price is right......

[MParris86]

ok but here's the flip side.......but honestly, what has OKST done this year either....:dunno:.....they have beaten no one IMO.....Wazzu, Tulsa, Troy, ULL....:dunno:...yes they beat A&M but i wasn't impressed.....game filled with a million turnovers...they are ranked #22 basically by default as an undefeated team in week 7

This is their first real road game against a decent team AND....they do have Nebraska at home on deck so there is always the possibility of catching them peeking at the schedule. I think this line is spot on.....might be a last team with the ball wins type game like the TXAM/OKST game.....i imagine the books will price us out of an over play here like they did in the MichSt/michigan game....tough game to call IMO. When neither team can stop anyone i really don't know how you handicap that except for looking for some form of an over if the price is right......

Here's the thing...Oklahoma State has something that Texas Tech doesnt: a reliable running game. The Cowboys have a very good RB in Kendall Hunter who has run for 700 yds already this year and 9 TDs. This is a kid that went for 1500 and 16 TDs in 2008. He can carry 25+ a game if they need him to.

It's exactly what Oklahoma State did to beat Texas Tech last year...run the ball and control the clock. They put up 243 rushing yards (207 after halftime) last season in a 24-17 win.

Meanwhile, Texas Tech has the 102nd ranked rushing attack in the country.

I also think Blackmon is the best playmaker on either team and Oklahoma State's defense is better and more opportunistic; they are 10th in the country in turnover differential (+1.25). TT hasn't forced a turnover in either of their past two games while allowing 90 pts in the process. Also...TT's best DLineman has been suspended for the rest of the season.

Here's what Tuberville had to say today about OK State's offense:

"It is what gives you nightmares," he said. "That is what we are working towards. When you get a passing game like Oklahoma State has and you get the running game going it is a double whammy. It gives nightmares to your linebackers. Do you pass coverage or try to stop the run?

Call me crazy, I see value in OK State getting points here.

[FlyersFan]

Call me crazy, I see value in OK State getting points here.

interesting as the line opened OKST -1 and is now TacoTech -3.....sharp early money in on TacoTech......i hear what you're saying but i could care less about stats rung up against a bunch of SunBelt and CUSA garbage programs....they played 1 decent team so far and won a nailbiter at home. My point in this game is that what about OKST's defense or lack there of.....and as for forcing turnovers...that happens when you play Troy, Tulsa, Wazzu and ULL. GL if you play OKSt.....:thumbs:......for me i think TacoTech finds a way to get it done at home and i will most likely be looking at the total(s) when they come out (team and game) to see if i can find any value there. To crow about either team's defense in this game is laughable IMO as OKST's D has given up 30+ PPG to some real junk teams. OKST does have a fantastic RB i will give you that.

I likely won't make decisions on games like this until Friday honestly....just giving you my 2 cents....:thumbs:

[MParris86]

interesting as the line opened OKST -1 and is now TacoTech -3.....sharp early money in on TacoTech......i hear what you're saying but i could care less about stats rung up against a bunch of SunBelt and CUSA garbage programs....they played 1 decent team so far and won a nailbiter at home. My point in this game is that what about OKST's defense or lack there of.....and as for forcing turnovers...that happens when you play Troy, Tulsa, Wazzu and ULL. GL if you play OKSt.....:thumbs:......for me i think TacoTech finds a way to get it done at home and i will most likely be looking at the total(s) when they come out (team and game) to see if i can find any value there. To crow about either team's defense in this game is laughable IMO as OKST's D has given up 30+ PPG to some real junk teams. OKST does have a fantastic RB i will give you that.

I likely won't make decisions on games like this until Friday honestly....just giving you my 2 cents....:thumbs:

I thought I read somewhere the total is 69.5...crazy high, but certainly feasible.

I don't think Ok State's defense is great or anything, far from it. But would you rather have theirs or Texas Tech's? I'd take the Cowboys, personally.

As far as strength of schedule, its not like Texas Tech has run the gauntlet. Texas is decent, but that's about it. Iowa State, who rang up 52 on TT, was a fraud that got exposed by 41 last weekend. SMU is a decent CUSA team that might make the Poulan Weedeater Bowl. New Mexico is the worst team in the nation.

[FlyersFan]

got down on a couple more where the line has started to move against me and i don't think is coming back.......HAW +9 -130, TXAM -3....also played ARK +4 -120 as i don't see that line climbing much higher.

also added to Iowa play at -3 -115...honestly don't think the line is in play here and the Hawks win by 10-13 points but couldn't pass up the value in getting them at a FG (was -3 1/2 -105 bought the 1/2pt)

that OREST/WASH line is all over the place...opened PK went to OREST -3/-2 1/2 and now back down around PK. definitely got the best value on that line playing it at the peak.

I am giving A/M one last shot this week...covering a FG at home versus a Mizzou team that really IMO hasn't been tested and may be a semi fraudulent 5-0. We shall see I guess.

[FlyersFan]

I thought I read somewhere the total is 69.5...crazy high, but certainly feasible.

I don't think Ok State's defense is great or anything, far from it. But would you rather have theirs or Texas Tech's? I'd take the Cowboys, personally.

As far as strength of schedule, its not like Texas Tech has run the gauntlet. Texas is decent, but that's about it. Iowa State, who rang up 52 on TT, was a fraud that got exposed by 41 last weekend. SMU is a decent CUSA team that might make the Poulan Weedeater Bowl. New Mexico is the worst team in the nation.

im not really making a case for TacoTech MP...nor am i defending them......i just don't see much difference between what either team has done and i don't see a ton of value in that line either way....think the line is about right IMO....TacoTech has been good at home in these games off first memory and i lean to them in probably a similar game to what the Baylor game was......Tubberville versus "im a man, im 40" doesn't exactly instill a lot of confidence in me coaching wise to pick a side either.

[FlyersFan]

What are the top ML Dogs of the week?

I would have to say mine would be ARK, HAW and possssssibley UKY as dogs of FG+....smaller dogs i like WASH and LATECH.

I am still on the fence with playing UKY spread and ML....bad spot for SCAR...

[MParris86]

im not really making a case for TacoTech MP...nor am i defending them......i just don't see much difference between what either team has done and i don't see a ton of value in that line either way....think the line is about right IMO....TacoTech has been good at home in these games off first memory and i lean to them in probably a similar game to what the Baylor game was......Tubberville versus "im a man, im 40" doesn't exactly instill a lot of confidence in me coaching wise to pick a side either.

I'm just having a good time debating. No worries...everyone's got a different perspective. :thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

UGA starting RB King suspended for 2 games on an arrest for failure to appear.......UGA doing their best to hang with FLA in the arrest and suspension category....:thumbs:.....would beyond surprise me if Richt is there past the end of this year.


Also the vaunted offense of Nostra Damus dealt a blow this week

Notre Dame TE Rudolph done for year - College Football - Rivals.com

[Daws1089]

curious why UGA is favored by so much again this week? I understand last week's line, but is UGa all fo a sudden fixed?

[ChicagoEmpire]

Nobody has mentioned the MSU/Illinois game. Anyone else loving MSU -7 at home? I can't even fathom how UI could keep it close.

[FlyersFan]

Nobody has mentioned the MSU/Illinois game. Anyone else loving MSU -7 at home? I can't even fathom how UI could keep it close.

Another line i found interesting is the ILL/MSU line with MSU -7.5.......some dynamics in that one...you have MSU off of 2 straight huge wins over Wiskydick and michigan, while ILL comes in off of an upset win @ PSU (still not convinced PSU is not garbage this year, though) and a tough fought loss @ home to OSU. Will MSU let down or will ILL run out of gas playing their 3rd straight tough opponent. I tend to think MSU gets it done and the 7.5 is asking for ILL money IMO. Tough game and probably one i will leave alone but i was intrigued by the varying dynamics in that one......

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Tough game to pick. I think MSU is the better and more balanced team but who knows where they are off the michigan game.....letdown spot possibly. One thing is for sure, after this week everyone will have a much clearer read on Illinois.

[FlyersFan]

curious why UGA is favored by so much again this week? I understand last week's line, but is UGa all fo a sudden fixed?

I think the assumption is that AJ Green is back and they will get rolling now off that UT win. One interesting stat is that VANDY is 7-2 ATS @UGA in their last 9 trips to Athens. Caleb King is out for UGA on Saturday, but Ealey should do fine. Vandy has road losses @Uconn by 19 and @ LSU by 24. I personally think the number is slightly inflated and I had the line UGA -13.5. I wouldn't say the line is way off, though, IMO. Not really ready to lay 16 points with UGA in this spot this week, though. Last week was a different story. I think it will be interesting to see how UGA plays this week and if they are a team to possibly watch down the stretch ATS wise.

[hodown]

Nobody has mentioned the MSU/Illinois game. Anyone else loving MSU -7 at home? I can't even fathom how UI could keep it close.

Why? Illinois is actually playing defense this year and its not like Msu typically blows teams out. I think the game is competitive.

I'm a little pissed about not getting A&M at -3. Can't say I feel comfortable with the hook. Week still looks dead to me, top plays still Arky, Arky ML and Iowa.