NCollegiateAAssociation Football Week 4

[Q-Unit]

NCAA Football YTD:
Dogs: 15-16-0 (-2.60 units)
Chalk: 0-0-0 (+0.00 units)
Moneylines: 5-16-0 (-6.75 units)
Totals: 0-0-0 (+0.00 units)
---------------------------------------------
Overall: 20-32-0 (-9.35 units) // 38.57%

Friday:

Southern Methodist University +17.5

1 unit

[joepa66]

POW!
ZAP!
BOINK!


To the Bat Mobile, I like it too..............GL Q!:thumbs:

[bigbag12]

GL Q, opposites, but BoL anyways!:thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

Q-erator- GL!...this weekend...:thumbs:

[Q-Unit]

thanks guys!

Saturday:

11am/11:30am/1pm CDT:

Bowling Green +25.5

University of Central Florida +7
Golden Knights ML +240

Wyoming +13.5


2:30pm/3pm CDT:

Miami-Ohio +20

Tulane +19

Notre Dame +4.5
Fighting Irish ML +160

Colorado State +8
Rams ML +270


5pm/6pm/6:30pm/6:45pm CDT:

Cincinnati +14

Ohio +6.5
Bobcats ML +270

Fresno State +2
Bulldogs ML +110

South Carolina +3
Gamecocks ML +130


7:30pm/8:05pm/9:30pm CDT:

Northern Illinois +4
Huskies ML +160

Memphis +11.5

Arizona State +11.5

1 unit each

GoodL everyone!!

[FlyersFan]

Q- gotta ask you a question. Why do you only play dogs? They don't hit any more often than favorites and pay the same last time i got paid out......I guess to me, you look at the line and see if there is an advantage one way or the other...doesn't matter what it is dog or favorite. If the line is -7 and you think it should be -11 then that is just as much of a play as it is if you have a team +7 and you think it should be +3. Just curious your though process because to me it doesn't make sense and you're leaving off a good chunk of opportunities each week with some favorites. For instance the ARKST line last week i thought was off by about 4-5 points at -4 and it should have been closer to -8 or so. Game was never close.......I guess i find it hard to believe that in 3 weeks you haven't found one line that is off in the favorites direction. As i said, curiosity now has the best of me......:beerbang:...share your thinking dang it.....

[Q-Unit]

FF, just trying to make things easier on me. Still a work in progress, but I had success last year doing it this way. So far this year, it hasnt worked out as well. I figured as much, because everytime I try something it seems like it's a one year wonder profit-wise.

According to my record, dogs are 15-16, which is mediocre, but what hurt me was after week 2, I was 0-10 on MLs, I made up some ground last week on those.

Starting from the beginning, I do agree with you that dogs, or chalk, pay the same, and that no more dogs hit than faves. In any sport, especially football with the spreads, over the course of a whole season, the rate of dogs v. chalk is either 47-52% range, nothing beyond that. Overall total of every game played. I mean it makes sense that Vegas wouldn't allow substantially more dogs to hit than chalks, or vice versa.

Well me, like anyone is always looking for that edge. Tempered expectations, but just that edge to where we can hit that magic spot of 52% right? Over the course of a season. Anyways what I'm trying to say, is, there's just so many games out there. Read any handicapping 101 tips on any site, and they will tell you not to bet the board, just flat bet, and to just cap your games.

I'm trying to take the "emotion" out of capping... like say a team losing its starting QB, or their coach, or revenge factors, grudge factors, key injuries, sandwich games, or look aheads, hangovers, etc... The way I see it, I really do believe those matter, but other guys are better at capping those attributes than me. It's not for me.

After years of seeing me losing by a hook, winning by a hook, I am convinced that Vegas knows or reasonably expects who is going to win. I try to look at it from a number's point of view. So to me, say 30 total games on any given Saturday in college football, you can reasonably expect 47% dogs to hit, or 53%, or even 50% dogs to hit. You can say the same about chalk. If 60% or more hit out of those 30 games, its very very possible, probably happens a lot, I just didn't do the leg work to vouch for that, but I would hazard a guess that more often than not, its in the 47%-54% range. So my reasoning is, limit what plays I make, take emotion out of it, and hope for the best lol.

To be somewhat more clear... the way I see it, like you said, a dog will pay the same as a chalk, and a chalk has as much a chance to hit as a dog. Almost a coin flip in football when you consider the spread system. But I (and other cappers here) will look to a dog first because there are 2 ways a dog will win v. only 1 way a chalk will win (handicapping 101 again lol):

- dog can win SU, and cover
- dog can lose SU, and cover

v.

- fave has to win SU and cover the spread

So taking that into account, I just narrow the field down on which dogs I like based on SOS comparison. It's nothing proven, just something I did last year with success, and trying it again this year. Last year I think I was around 49-51% on sides, and like 30% on MLs, but managed to make 60 units. The key is the MLs, that's where the risk/reward crap comes in.

I read somewhere that since 1995 (don't take my word for it, I don't remember the exact numbers but I got the gist), dogs of spreads 10 points or less WIN SU at a rate of 21%.

And the lower the spread number, the higher that percentage got, but not by much. I think you were looking at a 3 point dog winning SU at a rate of 28%? Again don't quote me, I dont remember the exact number.

Basically the higher the spread, the less likely that dog will hit SU. And this made complete sense to me.

So what I do is pick out the dogs based on SOS comparisons (it's not that easy, but for time purposes, thats the general idea), bear in mind, I did do some small chalks last year with mild success, but this year I just forgot what criterias I needed for those, I would have to dig up old notes that are not unpacked after I moved last month. Anyways yeah I pick out the dogs on SOS comparisons, anywhere from 5-15 games off the board is the idea... and any dogs that are under 10 points, I take the ML, and just hope for the best lol

not very scientific I'm telling ya, but it worked last year, I just know I janxed it, and it so far has been mediocre. We will see how it goes today.

Just something for me to try out, you know everyone has their niche, if I had to go solely on handicapping, I would look to you guys, FF, Joepa, Underdog to name a few; if I need 2H gurus, thats Rah-Stah's neck of the woods, and so on...

Sorry for the novel, anyways hope this somewhat scratches that curiosity, but in the end, just remember wtf do I know? We gamble for fun, not for a living, or I'd be starving! lol

:beerbang:

[Q-Unit]

The cliff notes of that freaking manifesto is:

Make the process as simple as possible for me. Limit the number of plays, and leave emotion out of it.

Flat bet on the sides and even MLs.

The cream of the profit will come from MLs, IF they hit at a reasonable rate (i.e., 30-40%)

In other words, applying the principles of baseball ML betting to football!

:bang:

[akatdrake]

Thanks for the insight Q! :thumbs:

Hope your MLs turn it around this year!!!

[Q-Unit]

University of California, Los Angeles +7.5 2H +115

1 unit

[Q-Unit]

12-10-1 (+3.95 units)

NCAA Football YTD:
Dogs: 25-21-1 (+2.05 units)
Chalk: 0-0-0 (+0.00 units)
Moneylines: 7-21-0 (-7.45 units)
Totals: 0-0-0 (+0.00 units)
---------------------------------------------
Overall: 32-42-1 (-5.40 units) // 43.24%

[RahStahMan]

:beer2:

GL tomorrow, broseph!
:thumbs: