Discussion Thread....Q on some games

[FlyersFan]

looking at about 4 games that I am seriously on the fence on....wanted to know if anyone has a strong opinion on any of these either way and if so WHY?? It's the WHY i'm after not just the answer......:thumbs:

NAVY either -150 or -3......heavy lean here but for some reason their inconsistent play and the poor QB decision making IMO has me leaning and not playing.

TROY -3/3.5 (@UAB).......TROY has been very impressive IMO and i can hardly call UAB's home field a home field advantage. Line is telling me that TROY is the side

MISST +8.......read LSPoo is something like 2-18 L20 at home as a favorite....I didn't get to see any of the game vs. Auburn last week so I am leary of playing them. I have seen LSU and am not all that impressed.

UGA -2 1/2.........I am just really having a hard time pulling the trigger on UGA with AJ Green out of that lineup. They are not near the offense without him.....ARK can put up the points (though not reading much into dismantling 2 awful teams in their 2 games)

ILLINI -7............fool me once..you know how it goes. On paper it says yes, but once again can't pull the trigger.

[ChicagoEmpire]

looking at about 4 games that I am seriously on the fence on....wanted to know if anyone has a strong opinion on any of these either way and if so WHY?? It's the WHY i'm after not just the answer......:thumbs:

NAVY either -150 or -3......heavy lean here but for some reason their inconsistent play and the poor QB decision making IMO has me leaning and not playing.

TROY -3/3.5 (@UAB).......TROY has been very impressive IMO and i can hardly call UAB's home field a home field advantage. Line is telling me that TROY is the side

MISST +8.......read LSPoo is something like 2-18 L20 at home as a favorite....I didn't get to see any of the game vs. Auburn last week so I am leary of playing them. I have seen LSU and am not all that impressed.

UGA -2 1/2.........I am just really having a hard time pulling the trigger on UGA with AJ Green out of that lineup. They are not near the offense without him.....ARK can put up the points (though not reading much into dismantling 2 awful teams in their 2 games)

ILLINI -7............fool me once..you know how it goes. On paper it says yes, but once again can't pull the trigger.

I really like Illinois -7. They look much better than they did last year with some competent coordinators at the helm.

[FlyersFan]

I really like Illinois -7. They look much better than they did last year with some competent coordinators at the helm.

that game was actually game #2 in the pecking order of what i liked. May still add to it. I really don't see a lot of reason to play NILL here, but I have been toasted by Ron I can't coach Zook so many times ("granite" that was with juice interception guy) I have a hard time going to the window with an Illini play....


screw it.......added TROY.......

[FlyersFan]

bump

[MParris86]

Im also on board with Illini -7. They've never lost to a directional Illinois in-state opponent (12-0).

FWIW, the Big Ten blogger on ESPN picked Illinois winning 26-14. He's 20-1 SU on his picks so far this season. Doesn't mean much, but I'll take the chances that Zooks boys do indeed win this game by a at least a TD. If not, I'll take the push I guess.

[NittanyLions94]

MISST +8.......read LSPoo is something like 2-18 L20 at home as a favorite....I didn't get to see any of the game vs. Auburn last week so I am leary of playing them. I have seen LSU and am not all that impressed.

Prepare for some stream of consciousness:

I watched the LSU/UNC game and the MSU/Auburn game. LSU is a team that has no offensive identity, as it seems is the case most years with them. Their QB makes bad decisions, they misuse their speed on offense, and their defense carries them. Miss State runs Florida's offense almost to a T at times, which is expected with Mullen at the helm. MSU has 2 QBs, one freshman that can absolutely sling it, and another guy that runs a little more but can still throw a little. Not many playmakers at the WR position that I saw, so Patterson should be able to shut down whomever he feels like in that one. MSU had a little D against Auburn, who had the best athlete on the field at all times in Cam Newton. LSU can force some turnovers in this one, and probably wouldn't be a bad play. I sided with MSU mostly as a play against LSU's offense. I don't think they can sustain drives all that well, and I don't like Jefferson at QB whatsoever. Huge arm, no substance, pretty much the MO for another LSU QB that we all know and love. MSU ran the ball pretty effectively against what looked to be a pretty good Auburn D. MSU had a chance to tie late if not for a few bad reads from their QB, some bad clock management, and a dropped pass at the 5 on 4th and the game from about the 35-40 or so.

[FlyersFan]

Nittts- Good stuff.....i may still add MISST yet....:thumbs:


back to the ILL thing......that line hasn't budged all week long and for a big ten team to be laying a TD @ home to a mid to below average MAC team minus their coach.....doesn't instill a lot of confidence in me. If this line were like -10 or -11 I would actually feel a lot better about betting Illinois. The fact that this line is so low leads me to believe the oddsmaker doesn't have a whole bunch of faith in Illinois either. I am most likely going to sit that game out. Game almost seems too easy....maybe i'm over analyzing it.

[Woody12]

I like Illinois to win, and most likely get the cover too.

I watched NIU play against Iowa State and they have a decent ground attack and a scrambling QB. But if they get down, which could happen at ILL, they do not have a way to come back in my eyes.

ILL looked athetic and Zook should have them ready to roll against a decent NIU team.

I say ILL wins and barely covers so the number is right on. maybe win by 10-14?

I am trying to work them in a on a ML parlay somewhere as I don't want to mess with the point.

The line has not moved much either.

[hodown]

I'll help you where I can...

I watched Illinois for the first half against Mizzou and was mildly impressed, since I was predicting them last in the B10. Their redshirt frosh QB is fast and doesn't look timid carrying the ball, don't think he can chuck it though. The secondary looked fast to the ball as well and they bottled Mizzou up for awhile. Obviously NIU brings a different style to the table, and will probably look to pound it. Fact of the matter is Iowa St had their way with NIU and Iowa St looked like **** last week against Iowa, which is usually their Super Bowl. It's hard comparing teams and games due to emotion, but Illinois should be able to get 200+ yards on the ground which is good enough to muster a 10-14 point win. I'd think...

Haven't seen Arkansas play this year (I know they've played cupcakes), but they're my sleeper squad in the SEC. Arkansas' def should be improved, which would probably make them mediocre to above average at best. Georgia's oline, which is supposed to be the strength, hasn't done much and they're without Green. King is back which helps, but we all know Arkansas is going to stack the box to make Georgia call pass plays for Murray to beat them. Georgia's weakness looks like their secondary, which is something Arkansas can exploit. Mallet has not done well on the road, but they let two road games slip through their fingers last year (Fla, LSU), they return 17 starters, and I think they can steal a win. The ranked fave being dogged on the road to an unranked team is in play here, however.

Saw most of the Miss St game against Auburn. As you know, they run the spread, but basically all theyre able to do is chew clock. They're aerial game looks ****ty, but they do grind out 3-5 yard run plays consistently. Defense, per usual, is gritty and stout. Haven't watched LSU but sounds like the same old story. I think you think LSU is fadeable, which they are, just don't know if this is the game to fade. LSU's lack of offense and MissSt's defense will keep it competitive, but the Miss St offense is just flat not very good. MSU's receivers are not dependable and they have no home run hitters at the RB spot. Auburn did everything they could to not win that game and Miss St still couldn't take it. I don't think you're getting any value on the line, and for the mere fact LSU is capable of anything lends evidence to just leave it alone imo, or take the points if you think Miss St's def can control the game.

[Thor24]

FF..Hey..I Can't be on here as much as I Like..Working 6 Days (63 Hrs every Week..So no Writeups)..But Short and Sweet I Like Illy..Troy and Navy this Week..Going to High School Game from Work..But I Know I'm Playing Those 3 this Weekend...BOL to Ya on Whatever ya Do..Hammer em..Bro..:sm:

[BUNK MORELAND]

I'm headin into JOEPA territory

Bowling Green

They played well in their first two games of the season and came out on the losing end of both .

They played at Troy and lost a tight, well played game and went to Tulsa and gave the Hurricanes a good game ... They had a couple td's called back against tulsa and have showed some big play capabilities in both games ..


Marshall lost their SUPER BOWL last week against WVU in that circus .

They are down in the dumps after losing that game


liking BG +3.5

[FlyersFan]

Bowling Green

They played well in their first two games of the season and came out on the losing end of both .

They played at Troy and lost a tight, well played game and went to Tulsa and gave the Hurricanes a good game ... They had a couple td's called back against tulsa and have showed some big play capabilities in both games ..


Marshall lost their SUPER BOWL last week against WVU in that circus .

They are down in the dumps after losing that game


liking BG +3.5

in fairness, they were outgained by almost 250 yards in the Tulsa game. but i hear you on the spot with Marshall off that awful loss last weekend. Might look at a 1H BG play....:thumbs:

[Franchise]

Miss St - I watched the entire Auburn game and although they didn't get the results they wanted their defense was on fire after giving up an early score. They countered Auburn's speed and wide open offense with a deep defense and pressure. I think that can be a factor against a mediocre LSU offense. The key will be getting points offensively. I think that having the long week to get prepared will allow them to come in with a more consistent game plan as I saw a few mistakes that Mullen made from a coaching standpoint. But they will play hard and give a good effort. I like Miss St to atleast hang around if not have the lead while LSU is driving at the end of the game.