Bullz Picks Week 3

[DaBullz]

Hey all, first time posting here but I've been following the NCAA Football board here for 3 or 4 seasons now decided to start posting my picks. As a disclaimer I have had the worst start to a season of my life (week 1: 0-5, lost the 2 weekday picks I made for week 2 before finally coming out slightly on top on Saturday) so please feel free to fade, insult, or completely ignore these picks. Let's get this show on the road:

Texas -4 @ Texas Tech
Although this game has trap written all over it I couldn't resist. Although neither team has really been tested, this Texas D is one of the best in the nation and with the fact that Tech has a new set of coaches it is tough to see them pulling this one out (or even keeping it very close). Gilbert has been somewhat restricted in the first few games only throwing as much as was necessary and I see the Texas offense really opening up in this game. The only things that scare me about this is the fact that Gilbert really hasn't had to carry the team as much as he probably will need to in this game and the fact that nearly 70% of the public agrees with me.

Some other picks I'm looking at early on are:
SDSU +16 @ Missou
Western Mich -4.5 vs Toledo
WVU -13 vs Maryland

GL to everyone on week 3 :beerbang:

[MParris86]

:welcome:

Here's a set of knockers for good luck. :showtits2:

[DaBullz]

Adding:

WVU -10 vs Maryland
This West Virginia front 7 is much bigger, faster and more experienced than anything this new-look Maryland offense has faced so far this season. The suspension of CB Brandon Hogan shouldn't hurt this defense too much with a Maryland squad that has only shown success through the air against Morgan State(only completing 11-25 passes). Noel Devine has "only" had 223 yards rushing against some mediocre-at-best competition and is due for a big game against a very inexperienced Maryland DL. Geno Smith has played his role well so far but should get more of a chance to shine in this game. Also expect big things from WR/KR Tavon Austin this season. The public's short term memory is the only reason I can even imagine that this line is so low.

As a quick note all games are for 1 unit at -110 unless otherwise specified.

MParris - Thanks for the knockers. We'll call 'em Rally Knockers after how bad the first two weeks have been for me :puke:

[irishmike]

Best of luck!!!:thumbs:

[joepa66]

Good DaLuck and DaWelcome to the forum DaBullz.......GO BRONCOS! :beerbang:

[FlyersFan]

GL!...this week..:thumbs:

Hard for me to lay 4 with Texas @ TacoTech, though, even though TacoTech is probably down a little this year......

[DaBullz]

Adding:

NC State/Cincy U 28 (2nd half)

Tailing Rastah on this one. I almost played the under for the game but didn't pull the trigger. Its a little late but I'm trying to place my bets and post from my phone at work with almost no reception (here's where I would put the head bashing agaist the wall picture but I'm using quick reply since I'm posting from the phone)

[DaBullz]

Thanks McMike, JoePa and Flyers

Cashed last night on the NC St/Cincy under for the 2nd half. Adding one more play before I put in my last couple of picks saturday morning (thinking about doubling up on the West Vagina play as well).

Adding:

Utah St +4 vs Fresno St

On first glance I didn't think I would touch this game but when I saw a few other people had it on their list and I looked at the Utah State team this year it seems like a solid play. USU brings back an experienced QB that put up pretty impressive numbers last year and almost put up 350 yards against one of the best defensive backfields in the country against OU. Seems like both teams will likely be missing their top RB in this game but with Michael Smith coming in for USU (who put up 6.3 ypc last year and is continuing the trend with 6.7 ypc so far this year) and FSU losing 4 of their top 5 backs from last year I could see a turnaround here. Fresno has been known for moving the ball on the ground but this experienced USU defense looks to do a lot better than the 210 yds on 30 carries that they allowed last year. Last point that looked pretty significant to me is the fact that FSU QB Couburn is facing a pass D that held Landry Jones to 6 yards/attempt and picked him off twice. The more I look at it the more it seems like USU can pull off the upset but I'll take the points as it could be a close one.

[DaBullz]

Adding:

Notre Dame ML @ Michigan St (+130)

In a nutshell I see this game as a toss-up and love ML odds. Although both teams looked to be greatly improved from where they were last year I think one of the biggest changes in either of these teams from last year to this year is the Notre Dame defense. There is loads of experience on this side of the ball and the new 3-4 that Chip Kelly has installed worked very well at Cincinnati with less talent to work with (in general). The biggest question mark on the Notre Dame team coming into this season was probably Dayne Crist and he has come through and played well as his injury is probably a big factor in the Michigan loss.


Virginia Tech -19 vs ECU

I can't see the guys in those big buildings in Vegas putting this line out to give large sums of money away. Usually I won't make plays purely based on consensus and line movement but this one was too much for me to ignore. Opens much higher than anyone expects with the public being big on the ECU offense and VA Tech's 0-2 start and then after the public hits the ECU side the line moves up and makes VA Tech even more of a favorite. I see VA Tech bouncing back BIG in this one and maybe we'll see that D and special teams we've come to expect over the last 10 years from a Frank Beamer coached team. This should be the week that we see why Holtz skipped town for greener pastures (sorry, I couldn't help it).

This is just about it for me but I'm still looking at a couple more games and might make another play or 2. GL to all my fellow cappers and Happy Saturday :drunk:

[DaBullz]

Adding:

Arkansas/Georgia U 24.5(2nd half)

[DaBullz]

Adding:

Arizona -2.5 vs Iowa

Tailing the board on this one as it seems like most posters here agree on this one. Like the high flying Arizona offense at home under the lights.

[DaBullz]

Adding:

Arizona/Iowa OVER 21.5 (2nd half) (-115)

[DaBullz]

Week 3 Recap:

Thursday
WINNER NC State/Cincy under 28(2nd half) (-110) - 1.1 unit to win 1 unit

Saturday
WINNER Texas -4 @ Texas Tech(-110) - 1.1 units to win 1 unit
WINNER WVU -10 vs Maryland(-110) - 1.1 units to win 1 unit
LOSER Utah State +4 vs Fresno St(-110) - 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
LOSER Notre Dame ML @ Michigan State(+130) - 1 unit to win 1.3 units
WINNER VA Tech -19 vs ECU(-110) - 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
LOSER Arkansas/UGA under 24.5(2nd half)(-110) - 1.1 units to win 1 unit
WINNER Arizona -2.5 vs Iowa(-110) - 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
WINNER Arizona/Iowa over 21.5(2nd half)(-115) - 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Week 2: 6-3 (+2.8 units)
Guess I should have taken the points on the ND play but I figured the game would be a toss up and saw value in both plays... Couldn't predict Kirk "Icebox" Ferentz would run that "Little Giants" fake FG. Would be more pissed if it wasn't such a good game and I didn't still end up on top this week. Hope everyone had a good week and if you didn't then go get 'em in week 4 :beerbang: