***The Knuckleballers 2010-2010 NCAAF Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Many of you may have followed my thread last season. We ended the season up 38.4 Units, and we are looking forward to a new season. Week 1 is always a slow week, because my system has limited data to work with. Remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. Today, I have two 2 Unit picks to kick off the season. Good luck and enjoy the games!

**2 Unit Picks**
Northwestern -3
Notre Dame -10.5

[The Knuckleballer]

With kickoff quickly approaching, I wanted to provide readers with a little analysis on each pick. Below are my write ups:

Notre Dame -10.5: Based on my effectiveness ratings, Purdue had the 102nd ranked defense last season. This season they are only bringing back 5 defensive starters and to make matters worse they have to visit South Bend for their first game. There are a lot of variables to this equation, but that is the case with any week 1 game. Per my system, I see a great deal of value in this line. Notre Dame has a new coach, new attitude, but they are getting no respect. Notre Dame is returning 17 starters this season, which makes Kelly’s job a little easier. Especially since 9 of the starters are on the defensive side of the ball. I have Notre Dame winning this game by 14+ points, and I love the fact that the public seems to be fading the Fighting Irish.

Northwestern -3: Northwestern is returning 16 starters, and they are opening the season against a team without a true identity. Vandy has a new coach and a lot of question marks. Vandy is returning just 11 starters and will likely continue to struggle on offense. Last season, Vandy moved the ball fairly well on the ground averaging about 4.3 yards per rush, but Northwestern had a tough rush defense allowing just 3.7 yards per rush. Northwestern’s defense struggled against the pass, but that will likely be a non issue in tonight’s matchup. I have Northwestern winning this game by 10+ points tonight.

[sdyarnell]

so...

I followed you all of last year and plan to put some money on your plays this year. Good luck for real!

Would you be willing to start an email thread with me discussing you computer model? I have played with it in excel last year a couple of different ways, and have struggled a little. I can program, so if you are doing it will C or C++ or Java or whatever, I can follow. If so, email me at sdyarnell at gmail

FTR, i dont need to know your logic. I am just interested in how you implemented it.

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (1-1-0) -.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-0) 0 Units

Total Unit Based Record (2-2.2-0) -.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.62)

Today, I have one small Labor Day Play. It is listed below with full analysis. Good luck!!

* 1 Unit Picks*
Boise State +1.5

As much as I think Boise State is overrated, my system has Boise State winning this game by no less than a field goal. Boise is returning more starters than any other team in college football. Per my ratings, Boise State had the most efficient offense in the nation last season, and I don’t expect much change this season with all eleven offensive starters returning. Boise has a plethora of weapons on offense and Coach Peterson has had an entire offseason to prepare for Virginia Tech’s simplistic approach on the offensive side of the ball. Tyrod Taylor could give Boise some trouble, but I expect Peterson’s team to be well coached and ready. Per my rankings, both defenses were very effective last season ending the season ranked in the top twenty. Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, they will be looking to replace six defensive starters. Over the course of the season, I don’t expect this to be a problem, but I would not be surprised to see some growing pains tonight. My prediction is that Boise State wins this game 28-24. This may leave you with the impression that I expect to see Boise State run the table this season. Quite the contrary, Boise State will slip up, I just don’t know when. Will it be Oregon State?

[joepa66]

GL Knucksie.......will be with ya on BSU! :thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (2-1-0) +.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (1-0) 1 Units

Total Unit Based Record (3-2.2-0) +.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (57.69%)

Below is tonight's pick:

*1 Unit Picks*
Central Michigan +7.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (3-1-0) +1.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-0) 2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (4-2.2-0) +1.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (64.52%)

We are off to a good start this season. I have one pick for tonight. Good luck!

*1 Unit Picks*
UTEP +19.5

UTEP upset Houston last season, so I’m certain that Keenum and the other 16 returning starters will be seeking revenge tonight. Similar to the lines makers, I believe that we will see a high scoring game tonight. My system has the total capped at 68 and the spread at Houston -10. There is enough discrepancy in the spread to make this a 1 Unit Pick. It is true that Houston averaged more total yards per game than any team in college football last season, but per my ratings, their offense ranked 45th in efficiency. This team is getting too many points in what should be a closer than expected game. My prediction is Houston 38 – UTEP 28. Good luck and get ready for a fun filled weekend!

[JMED2]

Nice Pick on CMU

Way to go!!! :beerbang:

CMU covered, Keep it UP!!! :goodjob:

UTEP looks very interesting. :thumbs:

That's not a bad DOG call at all. :punch:

Keep up the good work!!! :gulp:

[joepa66]

Nice call on the Chipps Knuckler and I like the curve ball with UTEP as well! GL :thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (3-2-0) +.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-1) .9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (4-3.3-0) +.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.79%)


Kansas +13.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): With visions of North Dakota State still on our minds it is hard to pick Kansas against a top 25 team such as Georgia Tech, but my system sees some value in this line. My system has Georgia Tech winning this game by the score of 31 -27, which would put the fair value of this line at Georgia Tech -4 with a total of 58. There may be some value in the Over as well, but I prefer to pick only spreads early in the season. My thought is that this line is likely inflated due to Kansas’s horrific performance last Saturday. My one concern is whether Kansas’s defense can stop the run. Per my ratings, the Jayhawks’s defense was ranked 90th in defensive effectiveness last season. This scares me, but when my system sees value, I capitalize.

Eastern Michigan +14 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Miami Ohio had a good showing against Florida last Saturday, but this is a team that won only one game last season. They are obviously a much improved squad with 20 returning starters, but do they deserve to be 14 point favorites in their home opener. My system shows this line as heavily inflated. If Miami Ohio wins this game, it will be by no more than 5 points. I predict that Miami Oho wins 27-24, which provides us with an easy cover. Both teams were highly inefficient on offense and very ineffective on defense last season. I don’t expect any huge improvements this season, but I do see some value in Eastern Michigan at +14 today.

Oklahoma -7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): Finally, I have a pick on a big, top 25 matchup. My system has Oklahoma beating FSU by 10+ points. Per my ratings, Oklahoma had the 7th most effective defense last season. They are only returning 4 starters on the defensive side of the ball, but so is Florida State. I give Oklahoma the edge on defense, and home field advantage should give Oklahoma the necessary spark to pick up the win and cover this spread. My prediction is that Oklahoma wins this game 34-21.

Iowa State +13.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): Some analysts believe that Iowa is a National Championship contender, but I beg to differ. Iowa played in a plethora of close games last season, and I don’t expect that to change much this season. The only thing I expect to change is Iowa’s good fortune. Look for Iowa to accumulate 3 or 4 losses this season. My system has Iowa winning by no more than a TD today. Both Iowa and Iowa State had very effective defenses last season, ranking 12th and 13th respectively according to my ratings. Iowa State should show improvement this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball with 8 returning starters. Look for Iowa to be tested and win a close one by the score of 23-16.

Tennessee +11.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Dooley will have his hands full tonight against #11 Oregon. Unlike many analysts, I think Tennessee is ready. They have 7 starters returning on a defense that was deceptively good last season. Yes, they have undergone a lot of changes, but most of these changes should provide Tennessee with a more stable program. Tennessee has a very young offense, but they will have the advantage of playing this game at home in front of 100,000+ orange clad fans. My system has UT losing by no more than a field goal tonight. I would not be surprised if the Vols pulled off the upset and gave pollsters something to talk about. I predict that Tennessee wins this game 31-28 and breaks into the Top 25 next week.

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (6-4-0) +1.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (3-2) +1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-1) .9 Units

Total Unit Based Record (11-9.9-0) +1.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.63%)

Cincinnati +2 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): Both Cincinnati and NC State are returning 13 starters from last season, but the main change that you will see tonight is no Brian Kelly on the Bearcat’s sideline. My system has this game capped at Cincinnati -3. My main concern is the 10 sacks that the Bearcats have allowed in the first two games of the season. If they can’t protect the quarterback this could be a long night. Hopefully the ACC’s struggles will continue in out of conference matchups tonight against the Big East. Good luck and enjoy this Thursday night matchup!

[JMED2]

KnuckleBall in full EFFECT!!!

GL man this weekend. :thumbs:

Best to YA!!! :beerbang:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (6-5-0) +0 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (3-2) +1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-2) -.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (11-11-0) +0 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.00%)


Today, my system has 9 picks, but due to lack of time, I only have write-ups for my system’s top two picks. Please forgive me and trust that due diligence has been done on each pick. Enjoy the games today, and remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. My system’s lines will get more and more accurate as we progress through the season. Below are my picks:

Arkansas +2 (Risking 5.5 Units to Win 5 Units): Going into the 2010-2011 college football season, I had Arkansas finishing 2nd in the SEC West and above Georgia in the overall SEC rankings. This is great time to take advantage of a bad line. I don’t have many 5 Unit Pick’s, but when I do, I’m usually right (just look at my 2009 record). My system has the fair value line at Arkansas -6. Arkansas has a much improved defense this season (ranked 5th in defensive effectiveness, per my ratings). Plus, Arkansas’s offense is converting 50% of their 3rd down attempts this season. Look for Mallett to have a big day against a Georgia defense that has struggled to get off of the field on 3rd down (allowing teams to conver 40% of their 3rd down attempts). Take advantage of the 5 Unit Pick and enjoy a great start to your day! The Razorbacks will leave Athens with a big “W” today!

Arizona -2 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Very rarely do I have a 5 Unit and a 4 Unit pick on the same day, but there is a lot of value on today’s card. This will be a nice nightcap. The Wildcats have revenge on their minds against a team that is much OVERATED! The Hawkeyes have managed to fool pollsters, but they can’t fool my system. The public likes Iowa, while the odds makers like Arizona. Look at the line movement in this matchup. My system has this line capped at Arizona -7. Per my ratings, Arizona has the 3rd most effective defense in the country and their offense is converting greater than 60% of their 3rd down attempts. These are telling statistics. Combine all of this with a hostile environment, and you get a Wildcat victory. The Wildcat’s win tonight and jump Iowa in the polls next week!

Maryland +9.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

ECU +20.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Minnesota +12 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Tennessee +13.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Air Force +16.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Clemson +7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Michigan State -3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

JMED2- I hope you have had a great start to the 2010-2011 college football season, and I also hope you are enjoying the picks and write-ups. Good luck today and thanks for the feedback!

joepa66- Thanks for the feedback and good luck today!

sdyarnell- Good luck today! I will shoot you an email when I have a chance. Very busy right now.

[JMED2]

Nice Picks!

Great Start, but this maybe a TRAP week.

CAL :flush: really Reamed me-over-last night and
went down the TOILET, OoooooF!

But that's how it goes in this Business, roll with the Punches
and all, etc etc et-al. :gulp:

GL this weekend and always,,,

Best to YA!!! :beerbang: