***The Knuckleballers 2010-2010 NCAAF Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (63-55-4) +16.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-15-1) -10.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-15-2) -1.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (25-23) -.3 Units

Total Unit Based Record (134-116.6-1.2) +16.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.22%)

Idaho +34.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): Idaho will definitely lose tonight’s game, but they will lose by less than the “experts” predict. My system has the fair value of this line at Idaho +20. Per my ratings, the Broncos have the 10th most efficient offense and 9th most effective defense in college football. Also, Idaho has allowed their quarterback to be sacked 30 times this season, while Boise State’s defense has forced 31 sacks this season. These stats combined with the fact that Boise State averages 47 points a game on offense would lead you to believe that Idaho will struggle to cover this spread. My system disagrees. I have Boise State winning by the score of 38-17. Good luck and enjoy the action as we gear up for a big Saturday!

[joepa66]

BOL Knuckler.....I hear the lone wolf howling! :thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (63-56-4) +14 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-15-1) -10.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-16-2) -3.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (25-23) -.3 Units

Total Unit Based Record (134-118.8-1.2) +14 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.76%)

The lone wolf did not howl last night, but I think today is going to be a great day. Good luck and enjoy the picks!

Texas Tech +15.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Texas Tech and Oklahoma are very evenly matched on offense. In fact, their offensive stats are almost identical. The question is can the Red Raiders get a few stops on 3rd down and force the Sooners to punt? Texas Tech’s inability to make stops on 3rd down paired with the Oklahoma’s fast paced offense, designed to wear down opposing defenses, scares me, but my system has the fair value line for this game at Oklahoma -10. My prediction is that Oklahoma wins by the score of 35-25 and fails to cover the 15.5 points.

Northwestern +9.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Cal +19.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Central Michigan +14 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Indiana +22.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Minnesota +21 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Southern Mississippi +10 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Purdue +13.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Kansas State +13.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Colorado +2.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

San Diego State +27.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Washington State +24 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Utah -5.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Kansas +35 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Oklahoma State -5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[Guest]

Hey Knuckle,

Do you use something like excel? Or do you use some free software like R? Or do you use Matlab? Or do you have a stand alone program you wrote?

vglnT-

[Nicky Santoro]

The first rule of his tracking system.........you do not talk about his tracking system.

[Guest]

lol its not like I asked him to give me formulas. I saw some other guy ask a couple of questions earlier and i wouldnt mind knowing the same stuff.

I really enjoy some of the articles written at AdvancedNFLStats.com. You guys should check it out. He explains everything he does in detail there. VERY interesting studies that guy does. He also supplies play by play data for like the last 5 years if anyone is interested.

and ftr, its a tracking thread, not a tracking system. lol

vglnT-

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (75-59-4) +32.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (16-16-1) -5.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (23-17-2) +8.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-24) +.6 Units

Total Unit Based Record (159-125.4-1.2) +32.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.67%)

Thursday night provided us with a much needed NFL victory with the Bears pulling off the “upset” againt the Dolphins. Now we look to kick off our college football action and roll into Saturday with a couple of W’s under our belt. Enjoy the game!

Fresno State +30 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Boise State is 7-2 ATS this season. Thus, odds makers have been forced to inflate their lines (especially home lines) to reflect their success ATS and account for public perception. My system has the fair value line for this game at Boise State -14.5. This paired with several other variables makes this a 3 Unit Pick. Look for Fresno State to focus on time of possession in an attempt to shorten this game and keep Moore on the sidelines. The blue turf may be intimidating, but I think that Fresno State has more than enough fortitude to keep this game within the number. Good luck!!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (75-60-4) +29.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (16-17-1) -8.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (23-17-2) +8.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-24) +.6 Units

Total Unit Based Record (159-128.7-1.2) +29.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.04%)

Maryland +3.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Per my ratings, Maryland has the most efficient offense in college football. Look for that to be the deciding factor in tonight’s game. My system has the fair value line for this game at Maryland -7, meaning that Florida State should be put on UPSET ALERT! My one concern is the Seminole’s ability to convert 3rd downs, and Maryland’s inability to get off the field on 3rd down. Florida State converts 50% of their 3rd down attempts, while Maryland’s defense allows team to convert 40.2% of their 3rd down attempts. This must change in order for Maryland to pull off the upset tonight. Good luck and enjoy today’s college football action!

South Florida +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Indiana +10 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Virginia +7 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Iowa State +11 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Kansas +24 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Wake Forest +14 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

UTEP +17.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Tulane +18.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Army +8.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

NC State +2.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Rutgers +13.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[jpix]

GL with MD. I like it...:thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (78-69-4) +10.9 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-3) +14.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (17-20-1) -15.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (24-21-2) +1.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (28-25) +.5 Units

Total Unit Based Record (165-152.9-1.2) +10.9 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.71%)

Last week was terrible, and we are off to a slow start this week going 0-3 in NFL action on Thursday. My system has a proven track record, and I fully expect to finish in the black in both college football and NFL this season. Please don't panic. Remember this is a marathon not a sprint. We still have 7+ weeks of NFL action and plenty of Bowl games to finish with a nice winning percentage this season. Good luck! Below are Friday's picks:

Arizona +19 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Alabama -4 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): The much anticipated Iron Bowl is finally here. Alabama and Auburn fans alike argue about the outcome of this game all year. Today, the outcome will be decided on the field. At a neutral site, my system has the fair value line for this game at Alabama -4, but with home field advantage my system has the fair value line at Alabama -8.5. This is due in large part to Alabama’s defense, which is the 2nd most effective defense in all of college football (per my ratings). Can Alabama stop Cam Newton? Highly Unlikely! Can Alabama slow down Cam Newton? My prediction is YES! Look for Cam to account for no more than 3 total touchdowns tomorrow (rushing and passing). This should be a fun game to watch. Good luck and enjoy the rivalry game action this weekend!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (78-70-5) +9.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-3) +14.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (17-20-1) -15.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (24-21-3) +1.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (28-26) -.6 Units

Total Unit Based Record (165-154-1.4) +9.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.50%)

Below are today’s Rivalry Game picks. Please understand that I will likely be back with three more picks for this evening’s games, but I am finishing up some late analysis. Good luck and enjoy the football!

Virginia +23 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

South Florida +12 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Maryland +2 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Tulane +11 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Kansas +24.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Western Kentucky +13 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

UConn -2 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Cal -7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Added Games:

Houston +9 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Per my ratings, Houston has the 23rd most efficient offense, while Texas Tech offense is ranked 66th in efficiency. This paired with the fact that Houston converts 52.7% of their 3rd down attempts should be enough to keep Houston within the number this evening. My system has Houston winning by the score of 33-31. Good luck and enjoy this shootout!

Idaho +10.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Notre Dame +5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (83-76-5) +6.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-4) +10.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (20-21-1) -9.6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (25-24-3) -3.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (29-27) -.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (177-169.4-1.4) +6.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.89%)

Below are today's picks:

Nevada/LA Tech Under 71 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Oregon State +16.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Nebraska +4 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (85-77-5) +8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-4) +10.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (20-21-1) -9.6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (27-25-3) -1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (29-27) -.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (181-171.6-1.4) +8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.13%)

It has been a while since I last posted, but I needed some time to clear my head and make some small adjustments as we head into Bowl Season and gear up for the NFL Playoffs. Good luck today and enjoy this afternoon’s pick!

Northern Illinois -1.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (86-77-5) +9 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-4) +10.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (20-21-1) -9.6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (27-25-3) -1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (30-27) +.3 Units

Total Unit Based Record (182-171.6-1.4) +9 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.27%)

Below are the remainder of my Bowl picks for this week. Good luck and have a Merry Christmas! I will be back next week with more winners as we gear up for a big New Year's Day! If you have questions about specific games let me know, as I will be checking this forum periodically.

December 22, 2010

Utah +15.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

December 24, 2010

Tulsa/Hawaii Under 74 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)