***The Knuckleballers 2010-2010 NCAAF Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (23-20-2) +12.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) +3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-2) +8.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-6-1) +.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-10) -4 Units

Total Unit Based Record (53-39.6-.7) +12.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (56.81%)

Arizona -8 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Arizona is dominant on 3rd down, both offensively and defensively. Arizona converts 46% of their 3rd downs on offense and allows opponents to convert just 31% of their 3rd downs attempts. In contrast, Oregon State struggles on 3rd down converting a mere 29.8% on offense and allowing opponents to convert 54.8% of their 3rd down attempts. This could spell disaster for the Beavers today. My system has the fair value of this line at Arizona -14.5. Look for Arizona to force 3rd and long situations then force the Beavers to punt or make a mistake and commit a turnover.

LSU +6.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): This is today’s UPSET ALERT! My system has this game capped at Florida +1.5. Florida has the edge on offense, but LSU has the advantage on defense. LSU is allowing just 2.28 yards per rush this season, which forces teams to throw the ball. Also, LSU has 16 sacks. This could spell trouble for Brantley who as looked far from spectacular this season with just 6 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Look for this to be a defensive battle with limited scoring. I predict that LSU pulls off the upset by the score of 20-17.

Toledo +39 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Simply put, THIS LINE IS OFF! The spread on this game should be Boise State -24 at the very most.

Pittsburgh +6 (Risking 2.2 Units t Win 2 Units)

Washington State +36.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Arizona State +1 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Minnesota +22.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Indiana +23 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Tennessee +11 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Army +1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

San Diego State -5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Missouri -11.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Utah -6 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[joepa66]

BOL today Knuckler.......:thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (30-25-3) +13.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) +3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (6-4) +4.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-6-2) +4.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-13) -3.3 Units

Total Unit Based Record (64-49.5-.9) +13.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.94%)

Louisville +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Louisville has a very balanced offensive attack, but the key to tonight’s game will be their defense’s ability to get pressure on the quarterback. Cincinnati’s offense has allowed 19 sacks this season, while Louisville’s defense has recorded 18 sacks this season. Look for Louisville to exploit this advantage and bring pressure on 2nd and 3rd down. Thus far, Louisville’s defense has allowed teams to convert just 26.2% of their 3rd down attempts, and I don’t expect this trend to change tonight. My system has this game capped at Louisville -4. Good luck and enjoy tonight’s UPSET ALERT!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (30-26-3) +10.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) +3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (6-5) +1.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-6-2) +4.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-13) -3.3 Units

Total Unit Based Record (64-52.8-.9) +10.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.38%)

Kentucky +5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): All eyes are on the Gamecocks this weekend. Can Spurrier’s team handle the pressure of being in the spotlight after defeating Alabama last Saturday? Kentucky has played well most of the season, and this is their opportunity to make a statement by beating an unpredictable South Carolina team that typically struggles on the road. Kentucky has done a great job protecting Hartline this season, allowing just 3 sacks. They must continue this tomorrow as they face a South Carolina defense that has forced 19 sacks this season. Also, Kentucky must find a way to get South Carolina off the field on 3rd down. Thus far, South Carolina has converted an impressive 55.2% of their 3rd down attempts. If Kentucky can do these two things consistently they will have a chance to win this game. My system has Kentucky outgaining this South Carolina team by about 75 yards tomorrow and pulling off the upset by the score of 34-28. Thus, I am putting South Carolina on UPSET ALERT!

Syracuse +1.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Vanderbilt +14.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Iowa State +22.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

San Diego State +1 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Duke +19.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Ole Miss +20.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Maryland +14 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Army +7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Oklahoma State +3 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

UTEP +2.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Utah -20.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[jpix]

Like KY myself......:thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (37-31-3) +12.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-2) +7.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (7-8) -5.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (11-6-2) +8.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (14-15) -2.5 Units

Total Unit Based Record (78-64.9-.9) +12.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.24%)

We have a big card filled with underdogs today. This will likely be the largest card of the season. My system has 17 picks, one of which is 5 Unit UPSET ALERT! Below are today’s picks:

Missouri +3 (Risking 5.5 Units to Win 5 Units): Missouri has all of the ingredients to pull off the upset tonight. The Tigers are returning 19 starters, and they have the most effective defense in college football (per my ratings). Missouri’s defense is allowing just 10.8 points per game, which should prove to be critical against Oklahoma’s potent offense. Oklahoma is converting 47.1% of their 3rd down attempts, which could pose a problem for Missouri, but according to my system, the Tigers should be more than up to the challenge. My system has Missouri winning this matchup by the score of 30-21. Enjoy today’s UPSET ALERT!

Iowa State +21 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Syracuse +13.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Tennessee +16.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Vanderbilt +12 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Minnesota +9.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Purdue +24 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Duke +27 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Ball State +11.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Kansas +14 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

North Carolina +6.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Rutgers +12.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Indiana +13.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Navy +6.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Houston +8.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Kansas State +6.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Washington State +36.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[Franchise]

I like a handful of them...GL my man:thumbs::thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (45-40-3) +9.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-2) +7.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-10) -6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (12-11-2) -.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (18-17) -.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (95-84.7-.9) +9.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.60%)

Louisiana Tech +37.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): The “experts” have this spread wrong. My system has tonight’s line at Boise State -23 with Boise State winning by the score of 41-18. Louisiana Tech’s defense gives up a ton of yardage, but they have held their opponents to just 26.6 points per game. That may seem like a lot, but I don’t foresee them giving up more than 50 points tonight, which means that Louisiana Tech’s offense only has to score 14 points to cover. This a line based entirely on public perception. Meaning this line is inflated, because everyone and their mother will be on Boise tonight. Good luck to those that follow me and fade the public!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (46-40-3) +12.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-2) +7.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-10) -3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (12-11-2) -.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (18-17) -.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (98-84.7-.9) +12.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.38%)

Below is tonight’s pick, but I encourage you to check back tomorrow morning for Saturday’s card. Should be a good weekend for some football. Good luck!

Connecticut +6 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (47-40-3) +15.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-2) +7.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (11-10) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (12-11-2) -.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (18-17) -.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (101-84.7-.9) +15.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.13%)

Thus far, we have had a great week, and I expect that to continue today. We have a full card, and I hope you enjoy the picks. Good luck!

Baylor +7.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Texas is coming off of a tough loss against Iowa State last Saturday. Unfortunately, they have to play a Baylor team that has a very potent offense led by Robert Griffin III. Griffin has 14 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions, and he is completing 70.9% of his passes. This spells trouble for Texas. Also, Baylor’s defense is deceptively effective. In fact, my ratings have Baylor’s defense ranked 35th in effectiveness. This should be a very close game, but my system has Baylor winning by the score of 26-24. Thus, this is today’s UPSET ALERT!

Virginia +15 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Vanderbilt +20.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Minnesota +25.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Tulsa +8.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

UL Monroe +16.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Louisville +9.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Tennessee +17.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Kansas +18.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

UTEP +2.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Central Florida -7.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Arizona -9 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Maryland -6 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Missouri +7.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

New Mexico State +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[joepa66]

GL today Knuckler and nice work with UConn last night! :thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (56-46-3) +20.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-2) +11.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (12-12) -3.6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (14-11-2) +3.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (23-21) -.1 Units

Total Unit Based Record (117-95.7-.9) +20.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.78%)

Below are my system's picks for Thursday and Friday. I hope you are enjoying the winners, and I welcome all input. Good luck to all that follow!

Georgia Tech +12.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): I wish we had caught this line when it first opened at +14.5, but there is still some value in this line at +12.5. My system has this game capped at Georgia Tech +8.5. Look for the Yellow Jackets to rely on their running game to keep this one closer than the “experts” think. Good luck and enjoy the game!

Western Michigan +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (57-47-3) +22.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-2) +11.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-12) -.6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (14-11-2) +3.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (23-22) -1.2 Units

Total Unit Based Record (120-96.8-.9) +22.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.12%)

Texas A&M +3 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): The Aggies will win this game with their defense. Currently, Texas A&M is allowing teams to convert just 28.5% of their 3rd down attempts and they are holding them to an average of 2.98 yards per rush. Combine this with a team such as Oklahoma that has struggled to run the ball consistently (averaging just 3.46 yards per rush) and the favorite could be in for a long day. My system has Texas A&M winning by the score of 30-26. My one concern is that Johnson won’t get enough protection. Thus far, Johnson has been sacked 27 times. That must change tonight if A&M has a chance to pull off the upset at home against the Sooners. Good luck and enjoy the UPSET ALERT!

UTEP +6.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Simply put, UTEP is the better team. They have the 35th most effective defense, while SMU has the 83rd most effective defense (per my ratings). Also, UTEP manages to convert over 50% of their 3rd down attempts. Few teams in the country can match that statistic. If UTEP can continue to protect their quarterback, they should walk away with a win tonight against SMU. My system has the fair value line at UTEP -3.5. Once again, I hope you enjoy the UPSET ALERT!

Army +6.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Hawaii +21 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Idaho +11 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Indiana +17.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Minnesota +24 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Purdue +20 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Vanderbilt +14 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Northwestern +6.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Arizona +7.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Virginia -1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Kansas +9 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Fresno State +2 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[jpix]

I like them all, especially 5 of them. Of the 5 A&M is one I will be on tonight....:thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (63-55-3) +16.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-15) -10.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-15-2) -1.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (25-23) -.3 Units

Total Unit Based Record (134-116.6-.9) +16.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.28%)

Below is tonight’s pick. I hope you enjoy the game, and I will be back later this week with more college football picks. Good luck!

Bowling Green +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)