***The Knuckleballers 2010-2010 NCAAF Tracking Thread***

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (11-9-0) +10.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-1) -.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-6) -4.6 Units

Total Unit Based Record (26-15.4-0) +10.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (62.80%)

Week 3 was good to us, and I'm looking to start Week 4 off with a bang. Below is my Friday night pick:

SMU +17 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): At the close of last season my system had a game between these two teams on a neutral field capped at TCU -15.5. Currently, my system has this game capped at TCU -11.5. Thus, there is some value in this line. Both teams return 9 starters on the offensive side of the ball, which should prove pivotal in this matchup. My two concerns are TCU’s ability to protect Dalton (TCU has allowed just 2 sacks this season) and convert 3rd downs (TCU is converting 60% of their 3rd down attempts). Fortunately, SMU is allowing just 2.7 yards per rush this season, which should help create 3rd and long situations. Then, this SMU defense, which has racked up 9 sacks this season, must step up to the challenge and put pressure on Dalton. This should be a good game, and I fully expect TCU to win by no more than 2 touchdowns. Good luck and get ready for another big college football weekend!!

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (11-9-1) +10.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-1) -.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-6) -4.6 Units

Total Unit Based Record (26-15.4-.2) +10.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (62.50%)

My system is starting to heat up, and I fully expect another big day in college football. Unfortunately, I don’t have time for full write-ups today, but I have provided analysis for my biggest pick. With kickoff quickly approaching, my picks are posted below:

Kentucky +14 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Tonight’s game is a trap game for Florida, as they look ahead to their big game against Alabama next Saturday. I have Florida winning this game by less than a touchdown. Kentucky has improved since last season, while Florida is still searching for an identity. In my opinion, the key will be Kentucky’s ability to run the ball and keep the speed of Florida’s offense sitting on the bench. Thus far, Kentucky is averaging 6.1 yards per rush, which is eighth best in all of college football. My system shows that on a neutral field Kentucky might be able to sneak away with a “W”. I don’t expect that tonight, but stranger things have definitely happened. Good luck!!

Boston College +4 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

NC State +8 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Central Florida +7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Stanford -4.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Nevada -4 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Cincinnati +14 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

South Carolina +3 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[JMED2]

Good Luck Man,,,

Nice call on SMU last night!!! :thumbs:

GL today!!! :gulp:

Best to YA!!! :beerbang:

[jpix]

GL today KnuckleSandwich...........:thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (16-12-1) +10.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-2) -4.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-3-1) +7.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-7) -2.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (34-23.1-.2) +10.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (59.34%)

Texas A&M +3 (Risking 5.5 Units to Win 5 Units): Tonight, we have a match-up between two unbeaten Big 12 teams. The masses are on Oklahoma State at -3, but my system has the fair value line at Texas A&M -1.5. Texas A&M has been dominant on the defensive side of the ball allowing teams to convert just 24.1% of their 3rd down attempts and rush for a mere 2.16 yards per carry. It is critical that they continue this dominance tonight against a very good rushing team in Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is averaging 5.33 yards per rush, which sets up very manageable 3rd down situations. We will see strength against strength tonight, but I have a feeling that Texas A&M will be able to force just enough 3rd and long situations to disrupt this Oklahoma State offense and pull off the upset. Good luck to all of those that stray from the herd and take the underdog tonight!

[joepa66]

GL Knuckler! :thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (16-12-2) +10.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-2) -4.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-3-1) +7.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-7) -2.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (34-23.1-.7) +10.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (58.82%)

Utah State +3.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): BYU will be on UPSET ALERT tonight, as they travel to Logan, Utah, to take on the Aggies of Utah State. Granted BYU has played a tough schedule thus far, but this is a defense that is struggling to stop anyone. BYU has given up an average of 433.2 yards per game. In addition to allowing teams to rack up yardage, this defense has not been able to get teams off the field on 3rd down. In fact, their opponents are converting 46.9% of their 3rd down attempts. Utah State’s defense is allowing teams to convert a more reasonable 37.7% of their 3rd down attempts. My system has the fair value line at Utah State -7.5. Thus, I will predict that Utah State pulls off the upset and wins by a final score of 28-21. Good luck tonight and get ready for a big weekend!

[rocjones]

WOW

:bang:HAS BYU FALLEN THAT FAR...SMH...HMMM DONT WHICH WAY 2 LEAN ON THIS 1...I WANNA CHOOSE BYU...GUESS I'LL THINK BOUT A LIL MORE...I CAN SEE IT THOUGH I'M GONNA TAKE BYU AND HOPE JAKE HEAPS CAN PULL IT 2GETHER.....GL FELLAS:thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (17-12-2) +13.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-2) -4.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (3-0) +9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-3-1) +7.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-7) -2.7 Units

Total Unit Based Record (37-23.1-.7) +13.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (60.86%)

Today, I have a full card. My system is finally hitting on all cylinders, and I fully expect a big Saturday. Both 4 Unit Picks were on the verge of becoming 5 Unit Picks, but several minor variables prevented the upgrade. Below are my picks with analysis on the two 4 Unit Picks:

Indiana +10 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Not only does Indiana cover the 10 points today, but there is a good chance they walk away with a “W”. Michigan may be looking ahead to next week when they will square off against the Spartans of Michigan State. All eyes will be on Robinson to see if he can bounce back from last week’s knee injury, but in my opinion, the quarterback to watch in this game will be Chappell. Chappell has thrown 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions this season. If he can avoid turning the ball over today, the Hoosiers may stun the Wolverines. I have this game capped at Indiana -3, which should shock most people. I predict that Indiana will pull off the upset and win by the score of 33-27. Laugh if you want to, but 10 points is way too many points to give this Hoosier team at home with Chappell at the helm.

Arizona State +3.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Yes, Arizona State will be playing in a hostile environment with only 8 returning starters from last season, but this is a team that is full of potential on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. The Beavers will have trouble getting Arizona State off the field (Arizona State converts 43.1% of 3rd down attempts and Oregon State allows opponents to convert 58.7% of 3rd down attempts). These stats don’t bode well for the Beavers. Also, Arizona State will likely have a great deal of success running the ball against an Oregon State defense that allows 4.79 yards per rush. Look for Arizona State to rely on their running game to eat up clock and move the chains on 3rd down. My system has this game capped at Oregon State +2. Don’t be surprised when Arizona State pulls off the upset.

Clemson +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Virginia +6.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Illinois +16.5 (risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)

Army +6 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Boston College +2.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Stanford/Oregon Under 65.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)

Tennessee +16.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

NC State +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Maryland -9 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Toledo -4.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

Oregon -6.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (22-20-2) +9.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) +3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-2) +5.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-6-1) +.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-10) -4 Units

Total Unit Based Record (50-39.6-.7) +9.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.37%)

Rutgers +5.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Tonight, I have my first pick of the week. Defense wins big games, and this Rutgers team has a dominant defense. Per my ratings, Rutgers has the 5th most effective defense in college football. They allow just 2.71 yards per rush and opponents only convert 23.5% of their 3rd down attempts. Combine these stats and you get a team that allows opponents to score just 12 points a game. My system has this game capped at Rutgers -5, and I predict that Rutgers pulls off the upset by the final score of 23-17. Good luck and enjoy this UPSET ALERT!

[ATLien]

GL! I'm taking your advice on this one :beerbang:

[rocjones]

OK I LIKE THAT STAT...I WILL TRAIL....RUTGERS IN THE UPSET:beerbang::thumbs:

[jpix]

Hot,,, on fire.

[rocjones]

I SECOND THAT MOTION:beerbang:

[ATLien]

Thanks for the pick! $$$$

Keep em comin brother :thumbs: