NCAA Saturday

[BoilerBacker]

Michigan line pounded to -6....hmmm.

198-170-14 +19.28 units

Jumped on these because the line is moving in wrong direction (for me) on all of them

Colorado +3 -110 ..........................................5*

Penn State -3 -125 .........................................2*

Tulsa +1.5 -110 .............................................4*

Nebraska +6 -110 ...........................................2*

GL :beerbang:

[joepa66]

GL Boiler.....like the Huskers too! :thumbs:

[FlyersFan]

come on, you're not backing the fighting tyrell pryors on the road....:laughing:

can't wait for another game changing bonehead play from him on Saturday...:ohman:...mix that in with conservative ****ty offensive play calling and nigel from the replacements doing the kicking and it should be just a beaute to watch......

GL!....

[Jackets_Fan]

Boiler, I’ve followed your picks for several years now, and as with most veteran cappers in the forum, your plays tend to go against the public. Is this intended or a coincidence?

Asked another way, when you analyze games each week, do you look more at the matchups, schemes, players, and teams involved in each game – or do you base your weekly card more on line movement and public betting?

Thanks for the insight.

[Stifler's Mom]

I'd love to hear your insight/reasoning for backing ****bag Tulsa this week if you get a chance.

That game looks/smells/tastes and even feels like a Houston beatdown. I get that the line moved strongly against the public and all, but the public isn't always wrong, and I'll be honest with ya, I have a REAL HARD TIME believing any so called "sharp" player is wasting their money on Tulsa if they've actually seen them play. I'd think the line moved more than likely due to an injury announcement or something. All I really see is that GJ Kinne is probably going to play (concussion), which would make sense to move that line if they were erring on the side of caution that he might not play, since he's one of the few players Tulsa has that actually doesn't suck.

After the first few weeks when they got done playing the Idaho institute of technology and St Mary's sisters of the poor (from the beatdown Oklahoma issued them on minus Sam Houston St, lol), the only game they covered was against equally overrated Boise, in a game that neither team had any business covering because they both sucked.

What I'm saying is that they are (imo) riding the success of former years, but suck anus this year, and that I see no way they match up with or contend with stopping the Houston offense this week.

[Stifler's Mom]

Oh, BTW I like the other 3 picks :beerbang:

[FlyersFan]

while we're at it, i would like to hear your reasoning as to why government run healthcare will failllahhhhhhhhhhh nevermind....

GL!.....

[Stifler's Mom]

LOL. Seriously though, i'm not criticizing his pick. I think Boiler knows better than that from me. I'm just curious on his line of thinking cause obviously if he made Tulsa a 4* play we are both seeing that game quite differently.

If I'm missing out on something, I'm all for finding out....

[BoilerBacker]

Tulsa looks worse than they are. They have a significantly better defense than Houston, but obviously a worse offense. Their offense is 3rd best on a ypg basis in CUSA and the 2nd best defense.

I have faded Houston a few times this year, but have also played a couple of winners...vs. OSU and TT. ConfUSA has some really crappy offenses this season.

In addition to that, the line looks ridiculously low for a team (Houston) that is 7-1 ATS and in the top 25. Houston blasted Tulsa last season 70-30 which I am sure Tulsa remembers...and Houston. Public is pounding Houston at almost a 9 to 1 ratio yet the low line went even lower.

As far as capping I look at the following.

1. Weird lines....like above.
2. Dogs at home.
3. Fade teams off big wins or heartbreaking losses.
4. Fade teams with big games next week vs. mediocre competition this week.
5. Public Dogs....fade big time. Public away faves....look to fade.
6. Early in season play against teams that have been hyped big time....as in Mississippi, Okla State this year. Look to play teams that sucked last year and return most starters.

I play dogs mostly and usually this means I play against the public. The public tends to play favorites and overs. If the public is on an under.....look closely at the over.

Statistically, yards per play I think mean more than anything. If a team avg more ypp rushing and gives up less ypp rushing than the other team, I look to play them. I also think teams with a critical injury going into this week are worth a look. Vegas knows the pub will look at playing the other team and teams tend to play with some extra conviction.

that is just some of it. I try not to make it too difficult or time consuming.

[BoilerBacker]

Add

Central Florida +35 -105 ...............................3*

Syracuse +21.5 -105 ....................................3*

Indiana +10.5 -110 ......................................2*

Minnesota -7 -105 .........................................2*

Maryland +7 -125 .........................................4*

Navy +12.5 -105 ...........................................4*

Army +17 -110 .............................................4*

UCLA -5 -105 ................................................4*

Stanford +7 -105 ...........................................3*

Clemson -8.5 -110 .........................................4*

Hawaii +3 -120 ..............................................4*

GL :beerbang:

[Nicky Santoro]

I really think PSU will win by 7-10 points. I don't like Pryor in this match-up. As usual, you have some nice plays. GL this week Boiler:beerbang:.

[Oracle]

Be careful with UCF Boiler. Seeing reports that their starting QB and starting RB will be out for this game. Liked them too until I saw this.

[recovering77]

really liking Tulsa boiler. Houston was a huge public favorite last week and got that lucky fluke cover at the end when they shoulda just drove it down for the game winning fg.

Tulsa looked terrible last week on the national spotlight, so I look for them to bounce back nicely at home.

[BoilerBacker]

Oracle....Texas could give a rats ass about UCF. I think if they can manage 10 pts they cover.

Add

Purdue +7 -105 ..............................................2*

Purdue is not good, but neither is Michigan. Somebody pounded this up to 7....who, I dont know. Purdue has not won there since Bob Griese, so I may be a dumbass for doing this. Statistically PU is better on both sides of the ball.

GL :beerbang:

[FlyersFan]

Oracle....Texas could give a rats ass about UCF. I think if they can manage 10 pts they cover.

Add

Purdue +7 -105 ..............................................2*

Purdue is not good, but neither is Michigan. Somebody pounded this up to 7....who, I dont know. Purdue has not won there since Bob Griese, so I may be a dumbass for doing this. Statistically PU is better on both sides of the ball.

GL :beerbang:

personally, i thought the over in this game was one of the best plays on the board this week. i like your +7 play as well.