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Friday
Cincinnati (-2) @ South Florida 1 UNIT
My biggest reason for picking the small road favorite here was what will probably be the biggest deciding factor in this game, Turnovers. South Florida has lived off of the turnover this year, forcing 16 in 5 games. Two large reasons for this number... 7 Turnovers forced in a 14 point win last week @ Syracuse. Also, in their only real test this year, they forced 4 turnovers at Florida State. While I will stop short of calling the Florida State win a fluke their two touchdowns in that game were to wide open receivers, apparently on missed assignments, and the +2 TO ratio certainly helped. Cincinnati comes into this game protecting the ball well, with only 3 TO's in 5 games. Cincinnati also comes in with a better offensive attack averaging 468 offensive yards per game. South Florida rushing stats are skewed by their early schedule and have been much more down to earth in their last two games. While the Bulls boast a good defense I expect Cincy will eventually wear them down and South Florida's offense will have a hard time keeping up. South Florida will have a raucous home crowd tonight, but they will need much more then that to keep up. GL
Cincinnati (-2) @ South Florida 1 UNIT
My biggest reason for picking the small road favorite here was what will probably be the biggest deciding factor in this game, Turnovers. South Florida has lived off of the turnover this year, forcing 16 in 5 games. Two large reasons for this number... 7 Turnovers forced in a 14 point win last week @ Syracuse. Also, in their only real test this year, they forced 4 turnovers at Florida State. While I will stop short of calling the Florida State win a fluke their two touchdowns in that game were to wide open receivers, apparently on missed assignments, and the +2 TO ratio certainly helped. Cincinnati comes into this game protecting the ball well, with only 3 TO's in 5 games. Cincinnati also comes in with a better offensive attack averaging 468 offensive yards per game. South Florida rushing stats are skewed by their early schedule and have been much more down to earth in their last two games. While the Bulls boast a good defense I expect Cincy will eventually wear them down and South Florida's offense will have a hard time keeping up. South Florida will have a raucous home crowd tonight, but they will need much more then that to keep up. GL
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