***The Knuckleballers Computer Based System Tracking Thread***

[rawhide]

These things tend even out...:beer2:

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Saturday (5-9) -8.6 Units
Overall Record (58-49-1) +27.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-0) +28 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-5) +7.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (18-23-1) -14.8 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (24-21) +.9 Units

As everyone saw, last week was rough. I had a terrible weekend in college and pro football. Fortunately, we are still up for the season and look to finish strong over the course of the next two weeks. This weekend looks to be a BIG card w/ numerous 2 unit picks. I have one pick for Friday night that I will go ahead and post. I have Utah State keeping this game within the number. My system shows Utah State losing by no more than 15 points tomorrow. Diondre Borel and the Utah State offense will have to keep this game close, because Utah State's defense has struggled all year. Borel's numbers are solid, and he should have a big game under the Friday Night Lights (13 TD's/3 INT's on the season). Should be a good start to a big weekend. GL and enjoy!!!

JMed, last week was definitely a regression to the mean. My core belief is that the public has a short term memory, thus linesmakers must place more emphasis on recent stats and scores as opposed to creating a line that reflects long term stats and scores. By no means do I expect to win every game, every week, or even every month, but I do believe that with a reliable system and good money management you can take advantage of inflated or deflated lines that result from the public's "what have you done for me lately" attitude towards betting. Your thoughts?

**2 Unit Pick**
Utah State +23

[JMED2]

Yup,,,

I agree with most of that. I'm going with
Boise St -23 though tonight. If Hawaii bet
Utah St 49-36, Boise is going to smoke them
going for style points just in case CINCY or
TCU loses a game and Boise can posture
for a higher/better Bowl Game.

GL this weekend!!! :thumbs:

JMED2 :beerbang:

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Night (0-1) -2.2 Units
Overall Record (58-50-1) +25.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-0) +28 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-5) +7.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (18-24-1) -17 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (24-21) +.9 Units

Last night was a rough start to the weekend. I liked the flow of last night's game until Boise State gained momentum and a 14 point lead late in the second quarter. Then, the wheels fell off for Utah State. It happens, and we must press on to Saturday. I have a big card with two 3 Unit Picks and one 4 Unit Pick. I love Arizona at home tonight. Home field should be worth about 5 point in this matchup. I have Arizona pulling the upset and winning by 2 or 3 points at home. Look for Arizona to out gain Oregon by about 60 total yards tonight. This should be a good matchup, but home field and Arizona's ability to convert 3rd Downs should allow them to pull the upset. Arizona converts 45.8% of 3rd downs, while Oregon converts just 35.4% of their 3rd downs. This will be a key stat in this game. GL and enjoy!

****4 Unit Picks****
Arizona +6

***3 Unit Picks***
Mississippi State +11.5
Air Force +9.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Michigan +10.5
Texas Tech +6.5
Iowa State +15
Virginia +21
Vandy +17
Kentucky +9.5
Kansas +27.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Maryland +18
Duke +18.5
NC State +21
Northwestern +7
Indiana +3

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday (9-6) +3.8 Units
Overall Record (67-56-1) +29.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (8-0) +32 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-7) +.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (23-26-1) -11.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-23) +1.7 Units

Not a bad day, but far from a great day. I will never complain about winning 60% of my picks and adding some units to the scorecard. Thus far, this has been a great season, and I hope we finish strong with a solid final week and a profitable Bowl season. GL and enjoy the picks!! Please check out my NBA thread as well, especially since I started out red hot hitting 100% of my picks today!!

[The Knuckleballer]

Saturday (9-6) +3.8 Units
Overall Record (67-56-1) +29.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (8-0) +32 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (8-7) +.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (23-26-1) -11.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-23) +1.7 Units

Happy Thanksgiving!! Tonight, I have one 3 Unit Pick. I love Texas A&M in this rivalry game tonight. I have Texas winning 33-23. A&M converts 50% of their 3rd Downs, which should help them stay in the game. A&M's defense will prevent them from having a chance to pull the upset. Good Luck and enjoy the game!

***3 Unit Pick***
Texas A&M +21

[The Knuckleballer]

Yesterday (1-0) +3 Units
Overall Record (68-56-1) +32.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (8-0) +32 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-7) +3.9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (23-26-1) -11.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-23) +1.7 Units

Last night was an exciting game and a big 3 Unit win. Today, I have 2 picks and they both come from the Nevada/Boise State game tonight. I have this game capped at Boise State -9. Nevada's running game will be what keeps this close. Nevada is averaging over 7 YPR. I have had this game circled on my calendar all season, and I wish that I could make this more than a 2 Unit Pick, but the spread is much more reasonable than I initially expected. Also, I love the Under in this game tonight. I have the total at 59. GL and enjoy the Iron Bowl this afternoon!! Roll Tide!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Nevada/Boise State Under 69

**2 Unit Picks**
Nevada +14

[The Knuckleballer]

Yesterday (1-1) -1.3 Units
Overall Record (69-57-1) +30.9 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (8-0) +32 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-8) +.6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (24-26-1) -9.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-23) +1.7 Units

Last night was tough. At least we cut our losses w/ the Nevada cover. Today is a great opportunity for us to add to our bankroll for the upcoming bowl season. I have a couple of 3 Unit Picks on tap. I will be back later w/ a brief write up for the UCLA/USC game, because I believe it provides a great opportunity to explain the way Vegas must adjust lines to meet the publics perception of various teams. GL and enjoy the picks!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Kentucky +3
Arizona State +3

**2 Unit Picks**
Duke +4.5
Virginia +15
South Florida +6.5
Utah +7.5
Notre Dame +10
UCLA +13

*1 Unit Picks*
Florida State +25
LSU -3.5
Arkansas/LSU Under 53.5

[joepa66]

GL today Mr. Wakefield! :thumbs:

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Saturday (2-8-1) -11.7 Units
Overall Record (71-65-2) +19.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (8-0) +32 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-9-1) -3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (26-30-1) -14.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-26) -1.6 Units

Last week was terrible. We gave back a lot of hard earned Units, but we still have a few games this weekend and an entire bowl season to get them back. Last week was just one of those weeks. Two OT losses and some bizarre mishaps near the end of regulation kept us from bringing breaking even or pickin up some units. Fortunately, that was in the past and tonight is what matters. I have a 3 Unit Pick on the board for tonight. I love Oregon State in this position. Can you say revenge? I can. The Beavers will be ready to play tonight and Canfield could have a huge game if his line can provide the necesary protection. The Beavers O-Line has allowed 27 sacks this season, which scares me when I see that the Ducks have forced 34 sacks on defense. PROTECTION for Canfield will be a key tonight. On a positive note, and in my opinion a much more pertinent note, the Beavers have converted 48.4% of their 3rd Downs this season. Will OSU win tonight? Who knows, but I do feel confident that they will not lose by more than a TD tonight. I have this game capped at Oregon -4. GL and enjoy the game!! Please check back later, because I will have a post pertaining to how I will be calculating my winning % and why I will be doing it in that manner. Once again, GL tonight!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Oregon State '+9.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Night (1-0) +3 Units
Overall Record (72-65-2) +22.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (8-0) +32 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-9-1) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (26-30-1) -14.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-26) -1.6 Units

Last night was a great start to a great weekend. I have one pick for tonight, but I don't have time for a write up. Enjoy, and I will be back with tomorrow's picks soon. GL!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Ohio +13.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Last Night (1-0) +2 Units
Overall Record (73-65-2) +24.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (8-0) +32 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-9-1) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (27-30-1) -12.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-26) -1.6 Units

Today should be a fun day in the college football world. I don't have a pick for the SEC Championship game, but I do have an opinion. This may be the game of the decade. I see the game going down to the wire, and one team will likely win by less than 3 points. My prediction is that Alabama will be trailing 20-14 with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter. Then, the Alabama offense will have a chance to win the game on a late 4th quarter drive. My guess is that Bama seizes the opportunity and wins by a final score of 21-20. Roll Tide!! Each teams defense allows an average of 234.1 total yards per game. Bama has the slight edge in rush defense, while Florida has a slight edge in pass defense. No Dunlap may play a larger role than people expect. Bama wears teams down, and Florida will miss having that depth at the defensive end position. Like I said, this may be the game of the decade, so sit back and enjoy some hard hitting SEC action. Gun to my head, take the Tide at +5. GL!!!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Washington +7
Nebraska +14.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Cinci/Pitt Under 58
Houston/ECU Under 69.5

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (75-67-2) +25 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (8-0) +32 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-9-1) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (29-30-1) -8.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-28) -3.8 Units

Total Unit Based Record (152-115-5) +25 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.88%)


I hope everyone is having a great day. I figured today would be a good time to post about how I track my success and why I do it in that manner. I use the same method used by Dr. Bob, because I respect his long term track record of success and to be quite honest it is the only way that makes sense. In my opinion, a "Total Unit Based Record" must be used to compute your overall winning %. This means that higher unit picks are weighted more heavily than lower unit picks. For example, a 1 Unit win obviously counts as 1 win, while a 3 Unit win counts as 3 wins. Likewise, a 1 Unit loss counts as 1 loss, while a 3 Unit loss counts as 3 losses. This risk adjusted winning percentage is the only way to truly track a handicappers success. Below is my updated record, which includes my "Total Unit Based Record" and risk adjusted winning %. GL and I hope you enjoyed last week's winners!!

I also have one pick for today's Army/Navy game. This line is little inflated for my likings. I have this game capped at Navy -7. GL and enjoy the game!! Ingram for Heisman!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Army +16

[sdyarnell]

You should post your bowl picks before the season begins.

[The Knuckleballer]

Overall Record (76-67-2) +27 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (8-0) +32 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-9-1) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (30-30-1) -6.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-28) -3.8 Units

Total Unit Based Record (154-115-5) +27 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (56.20%)

Bowl Season is finally here. Neither of yesterday's matchups fit my system, but I do have a 2 Unit Pick for tonights game between MTSU and Southern Miss. Southern Miss has struggled away from home today going just 1-5. They should travel well with the game being in New Orleans, but I think the Blue Raiders walk away with the "upset" tonight. I have this game capped at MTSU -1. GL and enjoy the game!!

sdyarnell- Sorry buddy, I was going to try and post all of my lines v. the actual lines, but I ran out of time. GL this Bowl Season!!

**2 Unit Picks**
MTSU +3.5