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Wake Forest -3 vs Navy
It's almost impossible for a team to beat the other team twice in the same season, especially when they are evenly matched. Perhaps WF came out a little flat the first game, or perhaps they were a little overrated as a 17 point homechalk, or both. But I think the WF defense gets the job done, allowing 30 points only once this year, and yielding only 3.4 ypc.
TCU -2.5 vs Boise State
Well favoring TCU here tells us who Vegas likes imo. I usually have a "no bet against" policy against Boise, and they always seem to do well as underdogs or when the spread is small. Will probably take some more thought.
Florida State -5 vs Wisky
Wisky will try to grind this thing down but I just don't see it happening. The defense is bad and the season has turned into a disappointment. On the other hand, FSU was a goalline fumble late in the game against GT from being in the ACC title game and possibly the Orange. I think FSU is actually a decent football team and I dont think this game will be all that close.
Northwestern +13.5 vs Missouri
I was thinking more along the lines of Mizzou -7 to -10 but this seems a little ridiculous. Mizzou really hasn't beaten anyone all year and they've done even worse down the stretch, and now theyre giving almost two touchdowns to a ranked team??? I know its NW, but they aren't that bad. And I bet NW is alot happier to be in the Alamo Bowl than Missouri is. If NW can contain Maclin then I think they can win s/u.
Minnesota +10.5 vs Kansas
Again, what has KU done to be a double digit fave? I know Minny backed themselves into a bowl after a hot start, but KU isn't that good. Their defense is pathetic. Both defenses are pathetic. Now that I look at it I see four Big 10 teams as double digit dogs which is some great value for a conference that isn't as bad as people think. I'm not going to argue them against the SEC or the Big 12 this year, but the conference definitely has some value in these bowl games with regards to the lines.
Georgia -7.5 vs Michigan State
Both teams are vastly overrated, but MSU being 9-3 is just misleading. Hoyer is not a good qb and in MSU's two games of note against PSU and OSU, they just rolled over and died. The Big 10's inability to field a respectable third team means that MSU probably goes into a bowl one spot too high.
Clemson -3 vs Nebraska
When looking at Clemson's schedule, they actually didn't have any real bad losses. The level of talent underpeformed but the defense has looked good for most of the year. I think in the end you have two coaches who are very motivated to get a win here, but I cant back that Nebraska defense, no way.
Ole Miss +6.5 vs Texas Tech
Again, one team is happy to be in the Cotton Bowl and one team isn't. I think Leech staying also has something to do with the pending outcome of this game, but I think this game stays very competitive throughout. Ole Miss at +7 would be a lot nicer, but not sure if its gonna get there.
Just some of my early thoughts
It's almost impossible for a team to beat the other team twice in the same season, especially when they are evenly matched. Perhaps WF came out a little flat the first game, or perhaps they were a little overrated as a 17 point homechalk, or both. But I think the WF defense gets the job done, allowing 30 points only once this year, and yielding only 3.4 ypc.
TCU -2.5 vs Boise State
Well favoring TCU here tells us who Vegas likes imo. I usually have a "no bet against" policy against Boise, and they always seem to do well as underdogs or when the spread is small. Will probably take some more thought.
Florida State -5 vs Wisky
Wisky will try to grind this thing down but I just don't see it happening. The defense is bad and the season has turned into a disappointment. On the other hand, FSU was a goalline fumble late in the game against GT from being in the ACC title game and possibly the Orange. I think FSU is actually a decent football team and I dont think this game will be all that close.
Northwestern +13.5 vs Missouri
I was thinking more along the lines of Mizzou -7 to -10 but this seems a little ridiculous. Mizzou really hasn't beaten anyone all year and they've done even worse down the stretch, and now theyre giving almost two touchdowns to a ranked team??? I know its NW, but they aren't that bad. And I bet NW is alot happier to be in the Alamo Bowl than Missouri is. If NW can contain Maclin then I think they can win s/u.
Minnesota +10.5 vs Kansas
Again, what has KU done to be a double digit fave? I know Minny backed themselves into a bowl after a hot start, but KU isn't that good. Their defense is pathetic. Both defenses are pathetic. Now that I look at it I see four Big 10 teams as double digit dogs which is some great value for a conference that isn't as bad as people think. I'm not going to argue them against the SEC or the Big 12 this year, but the conference definitely has some value in these bowl games with regards to the lines.
Georgia -7.5 vs Michigan State
Both teams are vastly overrated, but MSU being 9-3 is just misleading. Hoyer is not a good qb and in MSU's two games of note against PSU and OSU, they just rolled over and died. The Big 10's inability to field a respectable third team means that MSU probably goes into a bowl one spot too high.
Clemson -3 vs Nebraska
When looking at Clemson's schedule, they actually didn't have any real bad losses. The level of talent underpeformed but the defense has looked good for most of the year. I think in the end you have two coaches who are very motivated to get a win here, but I cant back that Nebraska defense, no way.
Ole Miss +6.5 vs Texas Tech
Again, one team is happy to be in the Cotton Bowl and one team isn't. I think Leech staying also has something to do with the pending outcome of this game, but I think this game stays very competitive throughout. Ole Miss at +7 would be a lot nicer, but not sure if its gonna get there.
Just some of my early thoughts
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