OK...Somebody Explain This To Me.....

[Stifler's Mom]

Looks like about a 60/40 split right now in favor of Florida. Line moved from -10.5 to -9.5.

How much more could they really favor Florida by over the #1 team? I think the fact that the line is what it is probably tells the story about what the oddsmakers think of this matchup.

[tdawgmd]

I actually doubt that stiff--ESPN gives the gators and Tebow a nob job every 5 minutes, and there is a public perception that the Gators are the best team to ever grace a football field.

Living down here in the SEC, I have watched nearly every Fla game, and they aren't nearly as good as their scores indicate. They win a lot of those games huge because the other teams just hand them the ball and beat themselves. If you watched the FlaSt game the other day, you could see how the offense really struggles at times. They have been winning big based on turnovers.

The recipe for beating them is being physical, with good defensive line play. Alabama has that in spades. Add to that really good coaching, and I'm fairly certain the tide won't beat themselves. I actually think UA wins in a close game, but really doubt UF covers that number. I grabbed the 10, because I think the sharp money will have that line heading south going towards saturday.

[Underdog88]

I agree with TDawgmd here. I would venture to say that most late (public) money will pour in on the Gators. Line had to be set over the td mark, as a 7 would have resulted in severely lopsided money on Florida. Florida could very well cover the number, but I just don't see Tebow running all over Bama. Florida hasn't faced a team as physical as Bama, with the closest one being Ole MIss, who held Tebow to 7 yrds on 15 carries. I would expect a ton of blitzing with zone coverage this game from Bama. Also nobody is mentioning the Bama O-line (specifically Andre Smith- god I wish the Bills could get him). IMO they have the O-line necessary to wear down the gator D & control the clock. Honestly I don't think any line move will come into play here..... Bama+pts & ml for me

[Daws1089]

I agree with TDawgmd here. I would venture to say that most late (public) money will pour in on the Gators. Line had to be set over the td mark, as a 7 would have resulted in severely lopsided money on Florida. Florida could very well cover the number, but I just don't see Tebow running all over Bama. Florida hasn't faced a team as physical as Bama, with the closest one being Ole MIss, who held Tebow to 7 yrds on 15 carries. I would expect a ton of blitzing with zone coverage this game from Bama. Also nobody is mentioning the Bama O-line (specifically Andre Smith- god I wish the Bills could get him). IMO they have the O-line necessary to wear down the gator D & control the clock. Honestly I don't think any line move will come into play here..... Bama+pts & ml for me

:thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Bama :beerbang:

[FlyersFan]

if you think Florida's offense struggles at times have you watched ALA play this year?? If ALA wins or covers it's going to be in a game played in the low 20's or even the teens. If this thing gets into the 30's bama isn't covering.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Gators :beerbang:

[Stifler's Mom]

No offense to you Bama backers, and you might be right for all I know....but the one thing I don't hear anyone mention is Bama's cupcake schedule. The kicker for me was when they struggled with AWFUL LSU....who has no real defense and is easily one of the WORST teams in the SEC.

Can you guys honestly argue that ANY of their 12 wins are quality wins? Maybe UGA, but UF shelled them even worse....and quite honestly UGA is a mess this year and were so overrated from the start this year that it's not even funny.

Speaking of which, I've been hearing the same old song and dance about Florida since the week they played UGA and EVERYONE was piling on that UGA +7.5 line. Basically I heard alot about how all the teams they played beat themsevles, and that Florida is getting lucky that every team they are playing plays like **** and keep turning the ball over, etc.

It's quite the coincidence that every team just happens to play like **** when the Gators roll into town ever since the loss to Ole Piss, i guess?

Now I'm by no means saying Alabama isn't a really good team, but in the end, I think FLA is better, and will show it come Saturday.....plus if FLA gets a DD lead and ALA has to play catch up....that's not really a spot where I'd want to have my $$.

[Daws1089]

You bring up good points stif, and I will say John Parker Wilson is not going to win this game for Bama.

[FlyersFan]

You bring up good points stif, and I will say John Parker Wilson is not going to win this game for Bama.

i mean great posts and all but i don't think it really takes a rocket scientist to figure this matchup out. If ALA defense can keep florida in check, i think ALA is in the game and has a very good chance of covering. Lets not sell bama's d short especially the D-line. They haven't been giving up a whole lot this year and i don't give a **** who they've played. They are 3rd in PPG allowed, 3rd in YPG allowed, tied for 1st in INT's for TD, 5th in the nation in YPC against.....and i don't want to hear any **** about who they played. That is impressive period.

It's real simple. If you believe in ALA D then the game has a very good chance of staying low scoring in which case 10 points is a bunch to cover. If you think FLA can move the ball on ALA then i would have a hard time backing ALA because their offense stinks. And they won't cover if they are in catch up mode.

Im sure people will line up on both sides of that argument. Im not sure who i like in that one.

[CuseFan10]

Random thought: Sure would be fun to see Boise State matchup with one of these teams.

With all due respect, no it wouldn't Boise State is not that good this year. Who did they beat? Oregon? Big deal... Boise State needs to get the heck out of the WHACK CONF and get into the Mountain West where they will at least play BYU, Utah, and TCU ever year instead of them thinking beating Fresno State and Hawaii are big accomplishments. If BSU were in the MWC they'd have two losses most likely. They need to get that done and play some decent football teams instead of the pansies in the WAC.

And I know, people will say, "Well, they beat OU a couple years ago in the Fiesta Bowl". Yup, very true. That point, however, is moot with regard to this team which has maybe 5 players who even played in that game left on it.

[CuseFan10]

Im sure people will line up on both sides of that argument. Im not sure who i like in that one.

I personally think FLA and OKLA are two most offensively gifted teams in the NCAA and USC is obviously on defense. Bama's D got shredded by UGA in the 2H and I'm not really convinced it is as good as their stats say they are. Also, even one thinks Bama's D can hold FLA to say, 24-27 points, I'm not sure BAMA can score 17-20 themselves to cover. They're offense consists of Jones and running game they pray shows up week to week.

[tdawgmd]

Cuse---again, if you have watched very much UF football--they don't light up the scoreboard with their offense. They aren't even close to Oklahoma in terms of offensive prowess, and I would take Bradford over Tebow(as will all the NFL scouts) all day.Turnovers have put UF in a position to have Tebow make a lot of short runs. I really don't think that Bama beats themselves the way my Dawgs, Carolina, Ky jelly, or any of the other teams that rolled over for them did.

I personally think that Bama is a matchup nightmare for the Gators. This reminds me of the Orange bowl when Nebraska just beat the mighty gators to a pulp. UF has the speed, but those big D linemen just kept sacking Wuerffel and beating him to death. I think the same thing happens Saturday, on both sides of the ball.

UF isn't physical on either side of the ball with the exception of Tebow. Harvin gets a hang-nail and he can't go. Their defense is very fast, and very small. UA will be able to run on them. They will get first downs just grinding the clock on the ground, and UF's D will be on the field all day.

[FlyersFan]

I personally think FLA and OKLA are two most offensively gifted teams in the NCAA and USC is obviously on defense. Bama's D got shredded by UGA in the 2H and I'm not really convinced it is as good as their stats say they are. Also, even one thinks Bama's D can hold FLA to say, 24-27 points, I'm not sure BAMA can score 17-20 themselves to cover. They're offense consists of Jones and running game they pray shows up week to week.

cuse- agree and disagree. Bama's D and the whole bama team went to sleep in the 2H of that game. I don't put too much stock in that. They ripped the piss out of UGA when it mattered. I don't think FLA has faced anyone all year long with a decent defense and that's not to take anything away from their offense. The SEC was horse**** this year especially defensively (though not as bad as the Big12).

Completely agree on your boise comment and i have said this for some time. Boise and San Diego State need to switch conferences for a bunch of reasons. First, SDSU fits better in the WAC as they can play Fresno State, San Jose State and more CA/West coast teams. Boise fits better in the MWC with other mountain schools like Wyoming, CSU, Utah, BYU etc......also SDSU has demonstrated that they have no interest in competing in D1 football....the BYU/SDSU rivalries are lonnnnnnnnng gone. I find it beyond pathetic that a team like SDSU who recruits in CA can't outrecruit and beat teams like Wyoming, New Mexico, CSU etc....just a joke. If i were the MWC i would boot SDSU in a minute and take on Boise. Then the WAC can grab SDSU and it all works out.

And completely agree on this year's Boise team. They beat ORE when oregon was a mess and they have the 115th ranked schedule in the country. They would get destroyed in a meaninful regular season game by any of the top 10 teams.

And honestly, who gives a **** about them beating OKLA. Bowl games if people haven't figured it out by now usually involve one team that could care less about its matchup. Boise went down to UGA and got their fking ass handed to them a couple of years ago and i think that's more the norm. I remember that line opened like UGA -8 or so and everyone hammered Boise. I think UGA just scored again on them...lmao.....

[Underdog88]

Bowl games if people haven't figured it out by now usually involve one team that could care less about its matchup.

:thumbs: