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Got one game tonight that I like in the MWC. I'm on the Falcons tonight for two big reasons.
1) Rodney Ferguson of New Mexico, MWC leading rusher is averaging over 6 ypc in home games and under 4 ypc on the road. The whooping they put on SDSU double his TD numbers. In last years 34-31 win over the Falcons he ran 41 times for 3.5 ypc... and that was at home.
2) Air Force ran the ball 68 times against UNLV in their 1 point win and averaged over 5 ypc. You can dominate a game getting 5 yards at a time. Jefferson looked better than Shea in the triple option and should get better. Collectively AF has thrown 31 passes this year, but they're 21 for 31 with 3 TDs. The reason... only 1 sack. They got a good consistent O-line. Lobos conversely are 38 for 82 in the air on the season with only 1 TD and 9 sacks.
Safe to say after a 70-7 performance, you're not getting gimme points in this game despite the Falcons success in the series. This line opened as a buy-up line of -6½ and is now at -4. I'm taking one more point and lowering my bet... Good luck to everyone tonight!
1% SPREAD ($325) - AIR FORCE -3 (-130)
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1) Rodney Ferguson of New Mexico, MWC leading rusher is averaging over 6 ypc in home games and under 4 ypc on the road. The whooping they put on SDSU double his TD numbers. In last years 34-31 win over the Falcons he ran 41 times for 3.5 ypc... and that was at home.
2) Air Force ran the ball 68 times against UNLV in their 1 point win and averaged over 5 ypc. You can dominate a game getting 5 yards at a time. Jefferson looked better than Shea in the triple option and should get better. Collectively AF has thrown 31 passes this year, but they're 21 for 31 with 3 TDs. The reason... only 1 sack. They got a good consistent O-line. Lobos conversely are 38 for 82 in the air on the season with only 1 TD and 9 sacks.
Safe to say after a 70-7 performance, you're not getting gimme points in this game despite the Falcons success in the series. This line opened as a buy-up line of -6½ and is now at -4. I'm taking one more point and lowering my bet... Good luck to everyone tonight!
1% SPREAD ($325) - AIR FORCE -3 (-130)
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