JoePa's Bowlin 'Em Over Picks

[joepa66]

CAPITAL ONE BOWL
JANUARY 1, ABC - 1PM
MICHIGAN vs. FLORIDA


Chad Henne, Mike Hart and Jake Long made a pact to return for their senior season, motivated by the prospect of beating Ohio State and winning a bowl game. They opened with a historic loss to Appalachian State but salvaged a New Year's Day game.
Henne, Hart and Long didn't beat the Buckeyes, but the group can improve its 0-3 mark in bowl games. Hart, the emotional leader of the Wolverines, assures Michigan intends to bring its best in coach Lloyd Carr's sendoff. The Wolverines hope for a repeat of the 2001 Outback Bowl, a 38-30 win vs. Florida. That won't come easy.
The Gators were the toast of football at this time last year, winning the national title in a laugher vs. Ohio State in January. But unlike Michigan's seniors, who came back for more, Florida lost S Reggie Nelson, DE Jarvis Moss both first-round draft picks and LB Brandon Siler to the NFL. There was no national title repeat in Gainesville, but a roster loaded with underclassmen started 4-0, including a 59-20 annihilation of Tennessee. The Gators placed eight on the All-SEC first or second team after losing three games this season by an average of 5.3 points.
The biggest reason for continued success at Florida: Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow, who backed up Chris Leak last season but was used on running plays as a freshman, can throw, too. The Gators average 462 total yards and 43.1 points per game. Tebow had 51 total touchdowns (29 passing) vs. six interceptions. He had more carries than any other Gator and made big plays with his left arm four receivers with at least 30 catches averaged 13.9 yards a reception or more.
If Michigan can move the Gators off the ball, Hart can break a decent run or two. Florida led the SEC and was 10th overall against the run because it has depth and speed and shoots gaps to close running lanes.
Provided Henne is at full strength a separated right shoulder has been an issue he could find soft spots in Florida's pass defense. WR Mario Manningham, arguably the team's MVP, averaged 99.6 receiving yards per game.

PICK: FLORIDA -10


BOWL RECORD: 11 - 12 - 1

[joepa66]

ROSE BOWL
JANUARY 1, ABC - 4:30PM
ILLINOIS vs. SOUTHERN CAL


How tradition-minded the folks at the Rose Bowl are....They could have lobbied the Sugar Bowl to release Georgia, ranked No. 5 in the final BCS rankings. They could have picked No. 6 Missouri, No. 8 Kansas or No. 10 Hawaii, the only undefeated Division I-A team in the country. In the end, the Granddaddy of Them All went with your granddaddy's Rose Bowl the Pacific-10 (10-2 Southern California, No. 6 in the USA TODAY coaches' poll, No. 7 in the BCS) against the Big Ten (9-3 Illinois, No. 13 in both polls).
This is the first Rose Bowl meeting between the two schools. They have met 12 times previously but not since 1996, a 55-3 USC win at Illinois. If Illinois wins, it will have won five times as many games as it won last year. That's right, the Illini won two games last year and two in 2005.
It's been a while since there was much fight in the Illini. No surprise, then, that they are relative strangers to college football's biggest stages. Their remarkable turnaround this season coach Ron Zook's third was built on a punishing rushing attack. The Illini are fifth nationally in rushing (266.2 yards a game). The featured back is junior Rashard Mendenhall, who averages 127.2 yards a game, setting a school single-season record with 1,526 yards, which earned him the Big Ten offensive player of the year award.
Sophomore quarterback Isiah "Juice" Williams is also a threat on the ground, having rushed for 774 yards in addition to his 1,498 passing yards. A nice season turned special with a four-game winning streak at the end, including a 28-21 upset victory at Ohio State.
This is USC's sixth consecutive BCS bowl appearance, something no other team has accomplished. Senior quarterback John David Booty, a Heisman contender at the beginning of the season, had an up-and-down year but returns to the site of his best game. In last year's Rose Bowl, he riddled Michigan with 391 yards and four touchdown passes. A loss to 41-point underdog Stanford in October kept the Trojans out of the national championship picture, but they finished strong.
Lacking the game-breaking offensive ability they've had in recent years, the Trojans have relied on what might be the best defense in the country. Defensive linemen Lawrence Jackson and Sedrick Ellis, the Pac-10 defensive player of the year, and linebackers Keith Rivers and Ray Maualuga have been the leaders in holding opponents to an average of 12.5 points the last six games.

PICK: ILLINOIS +14


BOWL RECORD: 11 - 13 - 1

[joepa66]

SUGAR BOWL
JANUARY 1, FOX - 8:30PM
HAWAI'I vs. GEORGIA


Every football season has its turning point! For Georgia, that moment came in mid-October when the Bulldogs rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit to edge Vanderbilt on a last-second field goal. Hawaii had so many defining moments en route to its 12-0 season...there were the overtime victories against Louisiana Tech and San Jose State, the game-winning field goal in the final minute against Nevada and the escape from a 21-0 hole against Washington.
The ability to make the right play at the essential moment is the primary reason the Bulldogs and Warriors earned a place in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Georgia closed with a five-game winning streak that began with an upset of then-No. 11 Florida. Sparked by quarterback Matthew Stafford and the emergence of running back Knowshon Moreno, the Bulldogs averaged 37 points in that stretch. Although he started only six games, Moreno gained 1,273 yards and scored 12 touchdowns. Stafford has thrown for 2,348 yards and 18 TDs, completing 55.4% of his passes.
No team operated with less margin for error than Hawaii in the quest to reach a BCS bowl. Even one loss would doom the Warriors. The man weaving the magic for Hawaii is senior quarterback Colt Brennan. He made the Warriors No. 1 nationally in scoring average (46.2 points), No. 2 in passing offense (450.2 yards a game) and No. 3 in total offense (529.3 yards a game). Brennan's 131 career TD passes (in three seasons) is a Division I-A or Football Bowl Subdivision record. Davone Bess, Ryan Grice-Mullen and Jason Rivers have all caught at least 82 passes for more than 1,000 yards. Despite missing almost three full games with injuries, Brennan has thrown for 4,174 yards and 38 TDs.

PICK: GEORGIA -7.5


BOWL RECORD: 12 - 13 - 1

[joepa66]

FIESTA BOWL
JANUARY 2, FOX - 8PM
OKLAHOMA vs. WEST VIRGINIA


Late on Dec. 1, Oklahoma and West Virginia were football teams seemingly headed in opposite directions. That day, Oklahoma toppled then-No. 1 Missouri 38-17 in the Big 12 championship, a result that, given the what-have-you-done-lately nature of college football rankings, could have sent the Sooners to the national championship game. Meanwhile, West Virginia, ranked No. 2 coming into the day, had lost its chance to claim a national championship berth outright, losing 13-9 to 28-point underdog Pittsburgh.
The next day, though, Oklahoma (11-2, fourth in the BCS rankings) and West Virginia (10-2, ninth in the BCS) found out they were headed in the same direction, paired to play each other in the Jan. 2 Tostitos Fiesta Bowl at the University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.
The matchup makes this year's Fiesta Bowl a consolation game of sorts, pitting one of the nation's top offenses, at West Virginia, against one of the best defenses, at Oklahoma, in the first game between the schools since 1982.
Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops, who stumped for his team to be invited to the title game after the win against Missouri, wouldn't second-guess the process that sent the Sooners to the Fiesta Bowl instead.
The Sooners are in the Fiesta Bowl for the second consecutive year. They lost to Boise State last January in a wild overtime finish deemed an instant college football classic. This time, they're up against a team that won its fourth Big East title in the past five years. Oklahoma overcame upsets by Colorado and Texas Tech during the regular season to win its fifth Big 12 title under Stoops.
Oklahoma's rushing defense, allowing 91.9 yards a game (eighth-best in the nation), will test West Virginia's fourth-ranked rushing offense, which is averaging 292.9 yards a game behind running back Steve Slaton.
In scoring, the Mountaineers are 11th in the nation (38.9 points a game). The Sooners defense, led by big-play linebacker Curtis Lofton, is ninth, allowing 18.2 points a game. Against Pittsburgh, West Virginia struggled on offense after quarterback Pat White left the game with a dislocated thumb on his non-throwing hand in the second quarter. White is expected to be fully recovered for the bowl game. But can the Mountaineers rebound from their disappointment in their season finale.

PICK: OKLAHOMA -6.5

BOWL RECORD: 12 - 14 - 1

[joepa66]

ORANGE BOWL
JANUARY 3, FOX - 8PM
VIRGINIA TECH vs. KANSAS


Ordinarily, choosing an 11-1 team to play in your major bowl game wouldn't raise any eyebrows. But as we all know, 2007 has not been an ordinary year in college football. So it was that FedEx Orange Bowl officials found themselves defending their decision to extend Kansas an at-large invitation to face Atlantic Coast Conference champion Virginia Tech.
One possibility could have pitted the Hokies against their former Big East rival West Virginia. But the committee decided a nod to its own history with the Big Eight was in order. Then it came down to which former Big Eight school to invite. The Jayhawks, the last team to lose from the six conferences with automatic BCS slots, got the nod over Missouri despite the Tigers' victory against KU and higher BCS ranking.
The Jayhawks' schedule is the biggest reason for scrutiny of their BCS credentials. KU faced no other members of the other major conferences, and its Big 12 slate didn't include Oklahoma or Texas. KU did beat Central Michigan, the eventual Mid-American Conference champion. The Jayhawks' resume also includes a 76-point explosion against longtime nemesis Nebraska and a victory at Colorado, where Big 12 champion Oklahoma suffered its first loss. Against overmatched competition, Kansas did what good teams are expected to do: win decisively.
Virginia Tech fits the description of three of the six formulas used in the computer component of the BCS standings and had Frank Beamer's Hokies ranked No. 1. The successful quarterback platoon of veteran Sean Glennon, a classic drop-back passer, and freshman Tyrod Taylor, a dual threat who can provide a change of pace, helped the Hokies bounce back from an early thrashing at LSU to claim the ACC crown. The ability to generate points from the kicking game and defense known as "Beamer Ball" was on full display in the ACC championship game win against Boston College. A blocked extra point resulted in a two-point defensive conversion, and the scoring concluded with a clinching interception return.
But Beamer isn't about to take the Jayhawks lightly. Cornerback Aqib Talib was one of five finalists for the Bronko Nagurski Award presented to LSU's Glenn Dorsey as the nation's top defensive player. KU also boasts a slew of offensive weapons, with junior quarterback Todd Reesing at the controls. Brandon McAnderson and Jake Sharp provide a one-two punch at tailback, and Marcus Henry and Dexton Fields lead the receiving corps. But how that unit handles the speed and athleticism of the Virginia Tech defense will be the key to the game.

PICK: KANSAS +4


BOWL RECORD: 13 - 14 - 1

[joepa66]

INTERNATIONAL BOWL
JANUARY 5, ESPN2 - NOON
RUTGERS vs. BALL STATE


Rutgers' designs on finishing the 2007 season with a bowl game in January worked out … in a two-steps-back sort of way. The Scarlet Knights take on Ball State on Jan. 5 in Toronto, but the International Bowl wasn't the destination coach Greg Schiano had in mind. Rutgers, a Cinderella story in the Big East last season, strived to build a title team this season around RB Ray Rice. The Knights started 5-2 but then lost three of five, including 31-3 to West Virginia, and fell behind the Big East contenders.
Rice enters as the nation's third-leading rusher with 1,732 yards and 20 touchdowns, and Ball State allows 197 rushing yards a game. Ball State's 3-4 defense, which includes 31-year-old sophomore DE Brandon Crawford, is not to be feared. Nebraska (41 points), Central Michigan (58), Illinois (28) and Indiana (38) all posted big numbers to beat the Cardinals.
Ball State's offense averaged 31.6 points, with QB Nate Davis accounting for 32 of the Cardinals' 45 TDs. Davis and Ball State played well against some solid competition, including a win vs. bowl-bound Navy, and has a winning record for the first time since 1996. Davis had more help with TB MiQuale Lewis, who averaged 111.8 yards rushing in the first four games before going down with a torn knee ligament.All-MAC TE Darius Hill and WR Dante Love (87 catches, 1,229 yards), make Davis a dangerous passer. Love had a six-catch showing at Michigan last season and 14 grabs for 177 yards at Indiana on Nov. 3.
The tailback position has been a void since Lewis went down. His primary backup (Frank Edmonds) followed with a broken wrist and ankle trouble, No. 3 (Koreen Burch) is gone after shoulder surgery and Chris Clancy (ribs) couldn't play in the last game. Walk-on Ray Winkler got the call (nine carries, 23 yards). The Cardinals hope Edmonds and Clancy can play.

PICK: RUTGERS -9.5


BOWL RECORD: 14 - 14- 1

[joepa66]

GMAC BOWL
JANUARY 6, ESPN - 8PM
TULSA vs. BOWLING GREEN


In no other bowl game than The GMAC Bowl…..a game program will be important in identifying players and teams!
Start with QB Paul Smith and Tulsa's No. 1 offense (542.5 yards a game) in the nation. Smith isn't perfect 19 interceptions, six games with at least two picks but he hungers for big plays and tossed three or more touchdowns in 10 games this season. The Golden Hurricane will pass in any situation; the goal is to wear down the defense.
WR Brennan Marion (39 catches, 1,244 yards) averaged 31.9 yards a catch. Marion and fellow freshman WR Trae Johnson (67, 1,039) had 11 TDs apiece. Tarrion Adams had five 100-yard rushing games, all Golden Hurricane victories. As often as Tulsa scores 39.5 points a game it is scored on nearly as often (35.4 points a game).
Bowling Green QB Tyler Sheehan, a sophomore, had to win the starting job last summer. He had eight touchdowns (one interception) during the Falcons' four-game winning streak to place them in a bowl game. Sheehan isn't a running quarterback, but he will take off under pressure which can be regular, as he was sacked more than twice a game.
Bowling Green is less likely to run than Tulsa. Converted QB Anthony Turner is the primary back. He can throw it (three TDs in five attempts in 2007) and has a rushing TD in six consecutive games. Sheehan has many capable targets, the most dangerous being sophomore Freddie Barnes. He caught nine TDs and gained 891 yards with 77 catches, including a score in four of the last five games. Possible help could arrive in the form of WR Corey Partridge, who is more of a possession receiver. Partridge had thumb surgery and didn't play in the last four games, but he might be available for the bowl game.
While this game is about the offense, keep an eye on Tulsa LB Chris Chamberlain.

PICK: TULSA -4

BOWL RECORD: 15 - 14 - 1

[joepa66]

BCS TITLE GAME
JANUARY 7, FOX - 8PM
LOUISIANA STATE UNIVERSITY vs. THE OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY


This year the roles are reversed in the Bowl Championship Series title game! Now Ohio State, derided as the "Luckeyes" by some, enter the Jan. 7 game against LSU in New Orleans as both the underdog and the outsider, even though it's their third national title game in six seasons.
Ever since Ohio State was humiliated by Florida in the national title game, the Buckeyes have been continually reminded of that score in various ways. Entering the season, the security code players used to enter their new practice facility was 41 14. All season long, that embarrassment has served as motivation. Again, the Buckeyes find themselves facing a speedy, athletic team from the Southeastern Conference. Again, the Buckeyes will be reminded that they have never beaten an SEC team in a bowl game.
The Buckeyes (11-1) and Bayou Bengals (11-2) both were strong national title contenders in October before each suffered losses to unranked teams in their next-to-last games. The Buckeyes lost to Illinois on Nov. 10, and LSU fell to Arkansas in triple overtime on Nov. 23. The Tigers were favored entering the season, but the Buckeyes' rise has been somewhat of a surprise.
With Ohio State in a rebuilding season with a non-conference schedule that included I-AA Youngstown State, Akron and Kent State, many wondered if the Buckeyes deserved their No. 1 ranking, which they held for four weeks until the Illinois loss. The defense has been impressive all season and the Buckeyes lead the nation in total defense, scoring defense and pass efficiency defense. Ohio State's offense has been steady under quarterback Todd Boeckman, the Big Ten leader in passing efficiency, and bruising TB Chris Wells.
LSU began the season ranked No. 2 and was No. 1 twice during the season. However, after losses to Kentucky and Arkansas in triple overtime, the Tigers thought their national title hopes had dimmed since no team with two losses has ever played in the championship game.
It was a season full of drama for the Tigers, especially of late with rumors coach Les Miles would go to Michigan and with defensive coordinator Bo Pelini being hired by Nebraska. Though ranked No. 3 in total defense, the unit was unsettled at times, too, because of injuries, most significantly to All-America defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey. At quarterback, backup Ryan Perrilloux was the SEC championship game MVP, starting for just the second time in place of Matt Flynn.

PICK: OHIO STATE +5

BOWL RECORD: 15 - 15 - 1
UNITS: -2.25

[joepa66]

.....what's the point of posting lines that were gone like 2 weeks ago?? KY -3???? GTECH hasn't been at 4 1/2 in quite a while now. The line today is 6....What good is that doing anyone here??

FLYER AND LARRY.....I'm simply posting the plays I've made! Not gonna post the "newest" lines but the one's I got the games at when I played them. If so....in cases like the Michigan State/BC game I would have changed my pick to BC since the Spartans lost their top 2 receivers a LB and two lineman since I played it and that's not mentioned in the writeup since I played it a couple of weeks ago. I'm sticking to all my picks and they've been **** so far.....hope yer not tailing.......I had to wait to post the last 16 bowl games cause I don't have internet service at home and needed to finish some of the writeups as I've been on vacation and leaving Monday for Carolina to be there for the Kent/UNC hoops game.:sm:

[bestbet425]

nice write ups....goodluck joepa:thumbs:

[CuseFan10]

GL man. I kind of agree with Flyers. You have the absolutely best possible line on every single game. Cincy -10, Florida -10, Arkansas +3.5, Rutgers -9.5, Oklahoma -6.5, Tennessee -2, Illinois +14, Ohio State +5....

Have a great vacation and BOL man :thumbs:

[joepa66]

Cuse.....best possible lines?:dunno:
If so I wouldn't be doing this because I am 1-5 on those best possibles so far, and 13-14-1 overall! LMAO
Best possible lines, are the ones you get early or at the price you like....in that case I am guilty on those games. Sometimes my local is better than Bodog or Pinnacle and doesn't change as quickly unless something drastic happens like a bunch of "probations" etc......man do I suck at picking winners this year in the bowls.....:puke:

[saidzeppelin]

JP,

Been long gone this season but was rolling through and thought I would say hey. Looks like some people need to unclench their butt cracks in this thread... Good GOD already!! Always appreciate your write ups and insight. I can't stand USC but I think they would have beaten any team in the BCS bowls. I think Tressel performs oral on someone with a lot of clout in the BCS, because that is the only reason they got in this game anyway. USC wipes the field with either of these so called " National contenders". This may be a good game only because neither belong here, Georgia and USC should have been the game. Best new year wishes and positive Karma my man!!! Hopefully next year I will have time to offer more fades to all!! LOL!!! :thumbs:

[joepa66]

WELL SAID....SAID!:beerbang:
Although I'm not sweating it....I post my picks with the lines I played them at like everybody else. It's not like I have a service or anything and am posting for everybody else. We all post for ourselves and hopefully info for all of us to win....:thumbs:


Tressel gives oral.....TFF:laughing:

Hope to see ya in college hoops!:sm:

[joepa66]

On the Calendar.....Tuesday is the anniversary of the Battle of New Orleans......me thinks it's reinacted tonight......:thumbs:



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