JoePa's Bowlin 'Em Over Picks

[birdsfan5]

GL Joepa

[Hackman]

GL Joepa....

Merry Xmas to you and yours.......

[Livin tha Life]

very nice write ups!

[PhillyFan3]

gl Joepa, love the writeups for the games, appreciate the work bud, have a happy new year!

[RahStahMan]

BOL throughout coach!
:gulp:

[joepa66]

SUN BOWL
DECEMBER 31, CBS - 2PM
OREGON vs. SOUTH FLORIDA


How did two teams that were ranked No. 2 in the nation this season end up in El Paso for the Brut Sun Bowl? It's been that kind of season.
South Florida has nobody else to blame. The Bulls were 6-0, including a victory against West Virginia, before a loss at Rutgers began a three-game slide. They also lost to Connecticut and Cincinnati. USF's total margin of defeat in those games: 15 points. South Florida rebounded by winning its final three games, averaging 48 points against Syracuse, Louisville and Pittsburgh.
Oregon can blame Dennis Dixon's left knee. Handling Oregon's spread-option offense, Dixon was possibly on his way to the Heisman Trophy before an ACL tear late in the game against Arizona State on Nov. 3. He tried to play in the next game, vs. Arizona, but crumbled to the turf in the first quarter. Oregon lost that game and its next two. The Ducks (8-4) don't have Dixon, don't have second-stringer Brady Leaf (ankle) and don't have third-stringer Nathan Costa (knee). They do have Cody Kempt and Justin Roper, who go against a pass-rushing terror and the best pair of cornerbacks in college football. Kempt and Roper are a combined 21 of 57 with four interceptions and two TDs. They also have running back Jonathan Stewart, 10th in the nation with 122.4 rushing yards a game.
South Florida counters with a playmaking defense led by a pair of All-Americans — sophomore defensive end George Selvie and senior cornerback Mike Jenkins. Selvie is second nationally with 141⁄2 sacks and has 311⁄2 tackles for losses — one shy of the NCAA record. Jenkins (three interceptions) generally doesn't get many passes thrown his way. That's good for Trae Williams, the cornerback on the opposite side. Williams has six interceptions, three returned for touchdowns.
Quarterback Matt Grothe is the key for everything the Bulls do on offense. The sophomore is the team's top rusher (832 yards). His ability to escape, scramble and improvise gives defenses fits.
Oregon's defense gives up yards — 386.8 a game to rank 62nd nationally — but they led the Pac-10 in red-zone defense.

PICK: OREGON +6.5


BOWL RECORD: 8 - 7 - 1

[joepa66]

HUMANITARIAN BOWL
DECEMBER 31, ESPN2 - 2PM
FRESNO STATE vs. GEORGIA TECH


Fresno State won't need an aesthetic adjustment to feel comfortable on the blue turf in Boise. The Roady's Humanitarian Bowl and Bronco Stadium present a different experience for Georgia Tech, because Fresno State plays every other year at Boise State and beat Atlantic Coast Conference rep Virginia at the 30,000-seat venue in 2004.
Regardless of the site, the Yellow Jackets, coached in this game by defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta, intend to win with the running game. Georgia Tech has the defense 19.3 points a game and ground game to dictate the tempo. Tashard Choice led the ACC for the second consecutive season with 119.1 rushing yards a game despite missing time with hamstring and knee injuries, but he's expected to be at full strength.
Fresno State lacks size and depth on defense, where six Bulldogs starters went down with season-ending injuries. It shows in the Bulldogs' 86th-ranked run defense.
Fresno State averages 406.9 yards and 32.3 points a game. The Bulldogs use five running backs and ranked 16th in the nation in rushing offense (204.7 yards a game). TBs Ryan Mathews, Lonyae Miller and Clifton Smith share the load in the running game. The featured back is Mathews, a freshman who scored 14 TDs and had 866 yards in 11 games. But he's been bothered by an ankle injury, and Miller didn't play in the season finale.
The Fresno State front five has a tough task handling LB Philip Wheeler and All-America candidate DT Vance Walker. Walker (81⁄2 sacks) can collapse the pocket, presenting a threat to Fresno QB Tom Brandstater, who threw only five interceptions in 307 attempts this season. He was picked off 14 times last year. Tech will be wary of Smith and A.J. Jefferson, who combined for four return TDs this season. Jefferson is the nation's leader with his 35.8-yard average returning kickoffs.

PICK: GEORGIA TECH -4.5


BOWL RECORD: 8 - 8 - 1

[joepa66]

MUSIC CITY BOWL
DECEMBER 31, ESPN - 4PM
KENTUCKY vs. FLORIDA STATE

Bobby Bowden, the winningest coach in major college football history, has Florida State in a bowl game for the 26th consecutive season. But a trip to the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl barely registers in Tallahassee, where the attitude has been national champs or bust. And the recent test scandal involving 25+ Noles players may have more than just their fans disinterested in this game or their chances.
Then there's Kentucky. A recent newcomer to national attention, the Wildcats would rate a win vs. Florida State as a gold-star accomplishment. Kentucky won the Music City Bowl last season, 28-20 against another Bowden — Tommy — and Clemson. The Wildcats will attack a vulnerable FSU secondary with QB Andre Woodson and the nation's No. 24 pass offense.
Woodson and running back Rafael Little, who has been in and out of the lineup with injuries, lead Kentucky's high-octane offense. The Wildcats scored 36.7 points a game and lost all three games in which they failed to score 24 points. Little didn't play against LSU, or in a 45-37 home loss to Florida the following week, giving freshman Derrick Locke a chance. Locke leads the team with a 5.5-yard rushing average.
Tight end Jacob Tamme and wide receivers Keenan Burton and Steve Johnson will draw attention from FSU's defense. All three, and junior Dicky Lyons, have at least 50 catches. Burton had better numbers last season (1,036 yards, 12 TDs) but still caught five or more passes in seven games this season. Johnson had 11 TD catches, including three multi-TD games, and averaged 17.2 yards on 54 receptions.
Florida State's run defense (114.4 yards a game) and scoring defense (21.9 points a game) rank in the top 32. Kentucky will abandon the run in favor of a short, high-percentage passing game to move the chains. Getting the ball out on time is mandatory. Kentucky gave up three sacks a game, and FSU can bring pressure with Everette Brown and Geno Hayes.
A star quarterback would be welcome at FSU. Drew Weatherford and Xavier Lee had sparse moments of brilliance this season. Weatherford has been the primary quarterback since back-to-back meltdowns cost FSU games against Wake Forest and Miami (Fla.). He has three 300-yard games and only one interception. He'll need to be on with FSU's running game sputtering. Antone Smith averaged 3.8 yards a carry, contributing to the Seminoles' struggles in the red zone.

PICK: KENTUCKY -3


BOWL RECORD: 9 - 8 - 1

[Larry]

I thought the Kentucky line was up to 9? Can you still get it at 3?

[joepa66]

CHICK-FIL-A-BOWL
DECEMBER 31, ESPN - 7:30PM
AUBURN vs. CLEMSON


An intriguing matchup, the Chick-fil-A Bowl is one of two games before New Year's Day pitting two ranked teams and might be the one with the most defense. Auburn, which is making its fourth appearance in the Chick-fil-A Bowl and first since 2001, wins with speed and defense. Clemson features one of the best players some people don't know, QB Cullen Harper, and a pair of playmaking running backs, James Davis and C.J. Spiller.
Auburn DE Quentin Groves, a dynamic pass rusher, could be the greatest beneficiary of a lengthy layoff. Groves (dislocated toes), has been limping for months. With Groves at full strength, Auburn's defensive line can be ferocious. LB Tray Blackmon missed three games but should be set for the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Their pass rush and a skilled secondary won't make life easy for Clemmie’s Harper. The first-year starter has 27 TDs and six interceptions. He completed at least 20 passes in six of Clemson's last seven games. As defenses zero in on Davis and Spiller, Harper-to-Aaron Kelly has become a dangerous combo. Kelly (84 receptions, 1,045 yards, 11 TDs) averaged seven catches for 87 yards this season.
Davis (992 yards) is more of a runner and Spiller is more versatile, finishing third on the team in receptions. Clemson can line up with both in the backfield or with Spiller in the slot. Clemson has never lost when Davis runs for at least 100 yards. Clemson is ranked sixth in total defense, yielding 18.3 points per game (10th) and is in the top 20 against the run and pass.
That's a scary proposition for Auburn. The line is decent and Ben Tate is respectable, but there is no gamebreaker to alleviate the pressure on senior QB Brandon Cox. Clemson senior LB Nick Watkins leads the defense with 100 tackles, and junior DE Phillip Merling had six sacks.

PICK: CLEMSON -2.5


BOWL RECORD: 9 - 9 - 1

[joepa66]

INSIGHT BOWL
DECEMBER 31, NFL NETWORK - 5:30PM
INDIANA vs. OKLAHOMA STATE


Indiana coach Terry Hoeppner died June 19, six weeks before the start of fall practice in Bloomington. His goal became the team's rallying cry to "play 13." Under first-year coach Bill Lynch — a close friend of Hoeppner's and the interim coach for stretches last season and this offseason before taking over full time — Indiana reached Hoeppner's goal. For the first time since 1993, the Hoosiers are going bowling. They're playing game No. 13 in the Insight Bowl. Their opponent is Oklahoma State, a team with four losses to teams ranked at the time. The Cowboys can score (33.4 points a game). They also give up points; in six losses, they allowed an average of 38.3 points.
Indiana quarterback Kellen Lewis (26 TD passes, eight rushing TDs) and wide receiver James Hardy (16 TDs) carry the scoring. Lewis leads the team in rushing, averaging 4.8 yards on 137 carries. Hardy is 6-7, but he's more than a post-up target. Hardy does as much damage against soft zone defenses because he's difficult for cornerbacks to drag down. Running back Marcus Thigpen didn't score a rushing TD among his 127 carries. He logged 20 carries once all season but has good hands and can shake a linebacker in coverage.
Oklahoma State QB Zac Robinson carried 125 times for 777 yards (6.2-yard average) and seven TDs. He also threw 20 TD passes. He's progressed rapidly and, after six interceptions in the first five games, threw only two in the last seven games. Robinson will be reunited with senior wideout Adarius Bowman, the team's leading receiver (61 receptions, 932 yards, seven TDs) who missed games at Baylor and Oklahoma because of a knee injury. Coach Mike Gundy said Bowman will play.
So will senior tailback Dantrell Savage, the Cowboys' leading rusher. He was bottled up by Georgia in Week 1, missed the next two games, and then finished with nine consecutive 100-yard games. Savage also had 25 catches and 10 total TDs.

PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE -4


BOWL RECORD: 10 - 9 - 1

[joepa66]

OUTBACK BOWL
JANUARY 1, ESPN - 11AM
TENNESSEE vs. WISCONSIN


For the fourth consecutive year, Tennessee and Wisconsin will start a new year in a Florida bowl game. The Badgers went 12-1 last season but were denied entry to the BCS because higher-ranked Ohio State and Michigan fulfilled the maximum allotment of Big Ten teams.
This, then, was to be Wisconsin's year. The stage was set with Ohio State losing offensive stars Michigan minus defensive. Wisconsin started this season with five consecutive wins. Injuries on defense came first; then TB P.J. Hill and WR Luke Swan suffered leg injuries. Swan (hamstring) is out for the season. Wisconsin rallied to reach a bowl game for the 11th time in 12 years. The reward? A fifth consecutive bowl game against a Southeastern Conference school, in the Outback Bowl in Tampa.
Tennessee became Wisconsin's opponent after losing to LSU in the SEC championship game. The Vols were bumped out of the Bowl Championship Series despite winning the SEC East and beating Georgia, which received the Sugar Bowl berth. The Vols' 74th-ranked defense will get a workout from Wisconsin's offensive line.
The Badgers depend on a power-running game and physical defense. In addition to Hill, a bowling ball for a tailback with surprising foot quickness, the Badgers feature Travis Beckum, the Big Ten's fourth-leading receiver (73 receptions, 960 yards, six touchdowns), and fifth-year senior QB Tyler Donovan.
On offense, Tennessee can pick apart most anyone. QB Erik Ainge triggers a passing offense that could toy with an inexperienced Badgers' secondary. Ainge also is anxious to atone for his showing in the SEC title game. The Vols averaged 33.4 points a game without a consistent playmaker. Junior WR Lucas Taylor was a 1,000-yard receiver. The return of TE Jeff Cottam is a factor. He can help create running lanes for TB Arian Foster, the SEC's sixth-leading rusher.

PICK: TENNESSEE -2


BOWL RECORD: 11 - 9 - 1

[joepa66]

COTTON BOWL
JANUARY 1, FOX - 11:30AM
ARKANSAS vs. MISSOURI


The AT&T Cotton Bowl should be an appropriate tonic for a holiday hangover with a showcase of superb offensive talent. Arkansas is 16th nationally in total offense, third in rushing and ninth in scoring at 39.83 points a game. Missouri ranks fifth in total offense and seventh in scoring (40 a game) and passing. Neither the Razorbacks (45th) nor Tigers (59th) boast about defense.
Chase Daniel excels in the inventive Missouri offense. He threw 534 passes for 4,170 yards with 33 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. His underrated backfield mate, Tony Temple, averaged 5.2 yards a carry and scored nine TDs in the nine games he was at full strength. TEs Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman and WR William Franklin will leave Missouri in the top five on the all-time receptions list. No player has more than Rucker's 200 career catches. The most dangerous Daniel weapon could be explosive freshman WR Jeremy Maclin. He emerged as a go-to target during Missouri's six-game winning streak with 39 catches for 595 yards and six TDs, often setting up the Tigers with a big kick return.
The Tigers also have defensive playmakers, led by LB Sean Weatherspoon and S William Moore, who had five interceptions in the last seven games.
While Missouri packed the all-Big 12 first team with eight players, Arkansas filled the all-Southeastern Conference teams with offensive players. DB Michael Grant was the lone Razorbacks defensive player honored. A former cornerback recovered from a knee ligament injury, he'll play center field to chase down any Daniel floaters.
These pigs can fly on offense. TB Darren McFadden, the Heisman runner-up, and Felix Jones are big-play backs in Arkansas' running game, averaging 296.8 yards a game. McFadden (143.8 yards a game) logged 25.3 carries a game, and Jones ran for 1,117 yards on 123 carries never had more than 17 in a game. Jones, the Hogs' kickoff returner, has four career returns for touchdowns.
QB Casey Dick's favorite target is FB Peyton Hillis, who also lines up as an H-back or tight end. The offensive line, which has three all-SEC picks, allowed 10 sacks. The Razorbacks introduced Bobby Petrino as their new head coach Dec. 11, but he said defensive coordinator Reggie Herring is expected to coach the bowl game.

PICK: ARKANSAS +3.5


BOWL RECORD: 11 - 10 - 1

[FlyersFan]

I thought the Kentucky line was up to 9? Can you still get it at 3?

JoeP- GL!.....not trying to be a dick, but seriously, what's the point of posting lines that were gone like 2 weeks ago?? KY -3???? GTECH hasn't been at 4 1/2 in quite a while now. The line today is 6. You have the absolute best of the number (and then some on a couple) in EVERY single game you posted. Most of your lines are the high or low point of the range of the game, whichever one you need it to be. What good is that doing anyone here??

[joepa66]

GATOR BOWL
JANUARY 1, CBS - 1PM
VIRGINIA vs. TEXAS TECH


Virginia's Al Groh is an old school defensive coach. Texas Tech's Mike Leach is a new school offensive coach. That should make the Konica Minolta Gator Bowl fun. Even giving opponents extra time to prepare for Texas Tech's offense, the Red Raiders have four wins in the last five bowl trips. They are must-see TV, especially if you missed last year's 44-41 comeback against Minnesota.
Virginia forged its identity by winning close games, but the Cavaliers will be challenged to keep Texas Tech close. After an opening loss at Wyoming, Virginia ran off seven wins in a row and missed a shot at the Atlantic Coast Conference championship game only after a loss to Virginia Tech in the regular-season finale.
Graham Harrell quarterbacks Texas Tech and the nation's top-ranked passing offense (475.6 yards a game). Harrell threw 21 of his 45 touchdown passes to freshman Michael Crabtree. Harrell throws most of his passes within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, scanning the field quickly for a mismatch or single coverage. He'll dump off to avoid sacks. If not, he risks a bearhug from Virginia DE Chris Long. The All-American, ACC defensive player of the year and son of former NFL star Howie Long has 14 sacks.
Harrell also should be prepared for Virginia to drop eight defenders and clog passing lanes. Groh, an offshoot of the Bill Parcells coaching tree, is a proponent of the 3-4 defense. That could make it easier to cloud Harrell's reads. Harrell completed 72.7% of his passes in the regular season. He also had 14 interceptions.
Here's the hook for Virginia: The Cavaliers must score to beat Texas Tech. Texas (59), Colorado (31), Missouri (41) and Oklahoma State (49) didn't exactly stall the clock in beating the Red Raiders. Groh will have to open up the offense. Virginia ranked 100th in total offense and has battled injuries in the backfield with leading rusher Cedric Peerman (foot) lost for the season. Mikell Simpson started the last five games and averaged 4.7 yards a carry and scored seven TDs.
Texas Tech is in a bowl game for the eighth season, while this is Virginia's fifth bowl in six seasons.

PICK: TEXAS TECH -5.5

BOWL RECORD: 11 - 11 - 1