JoePa's Bowlin 'Em Over Picks

[joepa66]

UPDATED YTD: 51 - 43 - 3
UNITS: +9.00
MAC: 25 - 15

I plan on having a preview of each game then my pick! Here we go......

POINSETTIA BOWL
DECEMBER 20, 9PM - ESPN
NAVY vs. UTAH

The bowl season kicks off with a game matching two 8-4 teams on a roll. Navy is on a four-game winning streak, and Utah had a seven-game streak late in the season before a 17-10 loss in the regular-season finale against MWC Champion Brigham Young.
Navy's triple-option offense, handled by QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada, leads the nation with 351.5 rushing yards a game. The Midshipmen move the chains with FBs Adam Ballard and Eric Kettani. Utah's defense, third in the nation with 15.6 points allowed a game, will be the best Navy has seen this season.
While the Utah defense has plenty to worry about, the offense is hungry to get on the field. Navy's defense has allowed more than 40 points in seven games this season, including 59 to Delaware and 62 to North Texas. The Utes spread the field to run, and RB Darrell Mack, averaging 102.6 yards a game, will be a load for Navy's small defense. The Middies rarely get defensive pressure on the quarterback, and Ute signal caller Brian Johnson should pick apart a secondary that ranks 119th in the nation in pass-efficiency defense.
Utah is in the postseason for the fifth year in a row, and the Utes have won six consecutive bowl games. Only Boston College (seven) has a longer current streak.

PICK: UTAH -8 LOOZER...Where's the sleeping D-Back?

BOWL RECORD: 0 - 1

[wsox08]

GL this bowl season, JP.. I'm leaning towards the Utes too.. Just not sure about them stopping the Navy run.

[joepa66]

NEW ORLEANS BOWL
DECEMBER 21, 8PM - ESPN2
FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. MEMPHIS

In a college football season full of surprises, one of the most unexpected results was Florida Atlantic's first bowl berth the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl at the Superdome.
The Owls (7-5) are one the best feel-good stories of the year, winning a share of the Sun Belt Conference and making the postseason in only the seventh year of the program which didn't exist until 2001 as a Division I-AA team. It all led to the Owls beating Troy 38-32 on the final day of the regular season to tie for the league title.
Sophomore Rusty Smith became the Sun Belt's best quarterback throwing for 3,352 yards and 27 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, and the Owls future looks bright as they have only one senior starter.
Memphis overcame the tragic September murder of Taylor Bradford to win five of its final six games and finish 7-5 overall, 6-2 in Conference USA. The Tigers are a prolific passing team in the spread attack, throwing for 307.8 yards a game 12th in the nation. Senior QB Martin Hankins' favorite targets are sophomores Duke Calhoun (58 receptions for 850 yards and five touchdowns) and 6-8 Carlos Singleton.
FAU's secondary will be busy, led by freshman Tavious Polo, Corey Small and Taheem Acevedo, made 17 interceptions this season. The turnover battle will be critical, and Florida Atlantic can trace its success to forcing 33 takeaways and leading the nation in turnover margin at 1.58 a game. Memphis is tied for 17th at 0.75 a game.

PICK: Still up in the air on this one.....

[joepa66]

PAPA JOHNS BOWL
DECEMBER 22, 1PM - ESPN2
CINCINNATI vs. SOUTHERN MISS


This will be the final go-around for Southern Mississippi coach Jeff Bower, who will stay on for the bowl against Cincinnati after tendering his resignation. Bower, the coach for 17 years, led the Eagles to a winning record in each of the last 14 seasons, including a 7-5 mark in 2007. But the program is stale, and Southern Miss' last Conference USA championship came in 2003.
Cincinnati, in the first season with rising coach Brian Kelly, beat three ranked teams — South Florida, Rutgers and Connecticut — and went 9-3, its most victories since 1953. The Bearcats' big story has been Kelly's no-huddle spread offense, which set school records for touchdowns (59) and points (441).
Now Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio left Kelly plenty of playmakers, including senior QB Ben Mauk. The Wake Forest transfer is second only to Louisville's Brian Brohm in the Big East in passing yards a game and total offense. Mauk has two of the leading receivers in the conference: Dominick Goodman and Marcus Barnett, who had a league-high 13 touchdown receptions.
Southern Miss has a solid defense, among the best in Conference USA. Sophomore Gerald McRath (131 tackles) was the C-USA defensive player of the year. Senior DLs Matthew Chatelain and Martavius Prince were first-team all-league, as was CB Brandon Sumrall. The Eagles' strength in their offense is the running game, but nothing will come easy against the Bearcats, who lead the Big East in rushing defense, giving up 105.67 yards a game.
The Bearcats hoped for a better postseason venue but were passed over in favor of South Florida (Sun) and Connecticut (Meineke Car Care). Still, it's the sixth bowl bid in Cincinnati's history, and the program can reach 10 wins for only the second time, and it's only a couple of hours from home which should seem like a home game for UC!

PICK: CINCINNATI -10


BOWL RECORD: 0 - 1 - 1

[joepa66]

NEW MEXICO BOWL
DECEMBER 22, 4:30PM - ESPN
NEW MEXICO vs. NEVADA


New Mexico gets a second chance to win its home bowl game, an opportunity it squandered last season when it lost 20-12 to San Jose State in the inaugural New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos are 0-4 in the postseason under coach Rocky Long. They have lost their last five appearances and haven't won a bowl since beating Western Michigan 28-12 in the Aviation Bowl in 1961. AND, they just lost their starting TB due to academics!
New Mexico picked up a big win at Arizona early this season but lost two of its final four regular-season games. The Lobos (8-4) were shut out by TCU and scored only 10 points while losing to Utah. Those are two of the best defenses in the Mountain West; Nevada isn't in that class.
That's good news for UNM QB Donovan Porterie and the Lobos' pair of all-conference receivers, Travis Brown and Marcus Smith. Brown will look to atone for two fumbles in last season's bowl game.
Nevada squeezed into the postseason with a 6-6 record as the fourth team from the Western Athletic Conference, making the field when league champ Hawaii moved up to the BCS. The Wolf Pack field an entertaining offense, led by QB Colin Kaepernick, the WAC freshman of the year. Taking over as an injury replacement in the fifth game, Kaepernick completed 120 of 216 passes for 2,038 yards with 19 touchdowns and only three interceptions. The team's MVP is RB Luke Lippincott, who led the WAC with 115 rushing yards a game.

PICK: NEVADA +3.5

BOWL RECORD: 0 - 2 - 1

[joepa66]

LAS VEGAS BOWL
DECEMBER 22, 8PM - ESPN
UCLA vs. BYU


The Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl features one team confident and excited to be here (Mountain West champ Brigham Young) and one eager to forget an inconsistent regular season (UCLA).
The big news for the Bruins is that their head coach Karl Dorrell was fired two days after a regular-season-ending loss to Southern California, ending his five-year tenure. The team, which suffered several injuries, tried to win games late in the season with a walk-on at running back and a quarterback who started the season at receiver. UCLA will have top QBs Patrick Cowan and Ben Olsen healthy for the bowl game, the only time all season that both will be 100%. With either one, the Bruins weren't going to blow anybody away with their offense, which ranks 90th nationally at 22.9 points a game.
That output is about what UCLA's offense got when it met BYU at the Rose Bowl on Sept. 8. The Bruins won 27-17, helped by Trey Brown's interception return for a TD. At the time, BYU QB Max Hall was making only his second career start, his first on the road. Freshman Harvey Unga, a bulldozer of a running back, was just getting started. The Cougars are much stronger now.
Hall (3,617 yards, 24 touchdowns, 28th nationally in passing efficiency) developed into an all-MWC first-teamer. Unga ran for 1,211 yards and 13 touchdowns, adding 41 catches and four receiving touchdowns.
Although it appears the situation is reversed, consider UCLA's postseason last year. The Bruins had all the advantages, coming off an upset of Southern California and playing in its home-state Emerald Bowl against a Florida State team coming off its worst regular season in about two decades. None of that mattered as the Seminoles dominated 44-27.

PICK: BYU - 5.5

BOWL RECORD: 0 - 3 - 1

[Whaleydog]

Good Luck with your bowls this year Joepa!

[manmythlegend]

I like every single one of your picks so far joe....that has me feelin pretty good headin into this bowl season, lets make some cash :thumbs:

[hodown]

nice writeups joepa.. i follow you as well on all of them, and i lean to memphis but also think thatll be tite

[hodown]

regarding ucla, scoresandodds has olson as questionable and cowan as out

[joepa66]

HAWAI'I BOWL
DECEMBER 23, 8PM - ESPN
BOISE STATE vs. EAST CAROLINA


The Sheraton Hawaii Bowl appears to be the biggest mismatch of the bowl season. Boise State followed up on its 2006 season with a 10-2 record and a No. 24 spot in the BCS rankings. East Carolina went 7-5 and squandered a chance to play for the Conference USA championship when it lost to a Marshall team that finished 3-9.
Boise State might have been back in the BCS if not for a 39-27 loss to Hawaii. Broncos RB Ian Johnson started the season on the Heisman radar. He never became a serious candidate but had a fine season (1,030 yards and 16 touchdowns in 10 games).
The surprise star was first-year starting QB Taylor Tharp, who ranks eighth nationally in passing efficiency. He is completing 68.3% of his passes for 3,070 yards, 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions. BSU averages 42.8 points a game, fifth in the nation.
East Carolina's offense doesn't have that kind of explosiveness, but one of the tag-team quarterbacks Rob Kass and Patrick Pinkney can get hot. This is also a chance to see one of the nation's under-rated talents, Chris Johnson. He rates behind only Michigan's Mike Hart among senior running backs, according to NFLdraftscout.com. Johnson (5-11, 195) is a breakaway threat who was first-team all-league as a kick returner and second-team as a running back. He leads the nation in all-purpose yards (212.7 yards a game) and has scored 22 touchdowns.
Boise State's defense has been good for most of the season but had major breakdowns against Nevada and Hawaii. Other than Nevada, though, almost nobody had success running against BSU (114.9 rushing yards a game).

PICK: BOISE STATE -10.5


BOWL RECORD: 0 - 4 - 1

[joepa66]

MOTOR CITY BOWL
DECEMBER 26, 7:30PM - ESPN
CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. PURDUE


Central Michigan QB Dan LeFevour could decide the outcome of the 2007 Motor City Bowl himself, but the game will most likely come down to how much his defense helps! The Motor City Bowl is a rematch of a Purdue blowout Sept. 15, when the Boilermakers had 583 yards of offense in a 45-22 victory.
Purdue jumped on the Chippewas early and LeFevour ran just seven plays before CMU trailed 17-0, and the Boilermakers led 38-0 into the third quarter. A lot has changed since mid-September. Purdue sputtered late in the season, while the MAC champions averaged 38.6 points a game starting with a 58-38 win at Ball State on Oct. 6.
LeFevour had 40 total touchdowns and was the MAC offensive player of the year. The sophomore ran for 1,008 yards and threw for 3,360. Vince Young is the only other member of the 1,000-3,000 club. He's nifty outside the pocket, averaging 6.5 yards a carry and rushing for 17 touchdowns. His top two receivers are Antonio Brown (98 catches, 909 yards, five TDs) and Bryan Anderson (83-1,003-7), but six players caught at least 20 passes. The Chippewas allowed 35.9 points a game, and nine opponents went for at least 30 points this season.
Boilermakers QB Curtis Painter completed 62.3% of his passes with nine interceptions and was dominant in the early meeting with the Chippewas (29 of 39, 360 yards, three TDs). But he is also streaky and threw three picks in the final two games, losses to Michigan State and Indiana.

PICK: PURDUE -7.5


BOWL RECORD: 0 - 5 - 1

[joepa66]

HOLIDAY BOWL
DECEMBER 27, 8PM - ESPN
ARIZONA STATE vs. TEXAS


The Pacific Life Holiday Bowl always one of the pre-New Year's Day treats features another good matchup, with a first-ever meeting between Texas and Arizona State.
It's also the first battle between coaches Mack Brown and Dennis Erickson. Brown (188-99-1 in 24 years) won the national title in 2005. Erickson (158-67-1 in 19 years) won national titles at Miami (Fla.) in 1989 and 1991.
Erickson is the Pacific-10 coach of the year, guiding the Sun Devils to a league co-championship in his first season. Sure, the schedule included eight home games. But he instilled a confidence that, early in the season, allowed the Sun Devils to storm back after a 14-0 deficit against Colorado and a 19-0 deficit to Oregon State. ASU rolled from there.
Brown, meanwhile, presided over a 9-3 regular season that didn't meet expectations. The Longhorns defense has been shredded at times, especially late in the season and through the air. Texas yielded an average of 35.3 points and 512.5 yards in its last four games. On offense, season-ending injuries to receiver Limas Sweed, tackle Tony Hills and center Dallas Griffin have taken a toll. To motivate the team, Brown declared that all jobs were open in practice before the bowl game.
Overall, the Sun Devils are a solid team that doesn't beat itself and has a confident quarterback in Rudy Carpenter, who finds a way to make plays, because running back Ryan Torain was lost to injury in the seventh game The defense has only one first-team all-Pac-10 player: linebacker Robert James.
Texas has more flash on offense. Colt McCoy has passed for 3,129 yards and is second on the team in rushing with 408 yards. Jamaal Charles led the Big 12 with 121.5 yards a game, and he's averaging 6.3 yards a carry. If this game is anything like Texas' other trips to the Holiday Bowl this decade, it should be a thriller. The Longhorns have a five-point loss to Oregon, a four-point win against Washington and an eight-point loss to Washington State.

PICK: TEXAS -2


BOWL RECORD: 1 - 5 - 1

[joepa66]

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
DECEMBER 28, 5PM - ESPN
BOSTON COLLEGE vs. MICHIGAN STATE


Boston College lacked the finishing kick to squeeze into the Orange Bowl and was passed over for a Gator Bowl trip in favor of 9-3 Virginia, a team six spots behind BC in the BCS rankings. The Eagles arrive at the Champs Sports Bowl with a point to prove. They are the only 10-win team from a BCS conference playing before Jan. 1.
Boston College won the Atlantic Coast Conference's Atlantic Division with Jeff Jagodzinski, a first-year head coach, and quarterback Matt Ryan in the lead. Ryan threw 607 passes 207 more than any other ACC passer and topped 300 yards in nine games (and 400 four times).
BC doesn't have a big star receiver, and senior running back Andre Callender might be Ryan's favorite passing weapon. Junior Brandon Robinson had 774 yards receiving but has only five catches in the last three games. The defense's strength is the linebackers. Jamie Silva averages 8.8 tackles a game, and Alex Albright, a sophomore, was third in the ACC with 81⁄2 sacks.
One concern for BC is whether it has an answer for Michigan State running back Javon Ringer. He has game-breaking speed, and the Spartans are creative getting him the ball in space. He averaged 112.2 rushing yards a game and caught 34 passes. Jehuu Caulcrick can be a hammer at the goal line for MSU, though he didn't rush for 100 yards in a game this season, he had 21 touchdowns.
If the Eagles put a safety near the line of scrimmage to control the power and pure speed combination of Caulcrick and Ringer, they will need Tribble to lock down junior wide receiver Devin Thomas. He led the Big Ten with 102.2 receiving yards a game (ninth in the nation).


PICK: MICHIGAN STATE +4

BOWL RECORD: 2 - 5 - 1

[joepa66]

TEXAS BOWL
DECEMBER 28, 8PM - NFL NETWORK
HOUSTON vs. TCU


TCU was hyped as 2007’s version of the 2006 Boise State Broncos. The Horned Frogs opened the season No. 22 in the USA TODAY Coaches' poll and led Texas in the third quarter before losing 34-13 in Week 2. TCU had difficulty replacing QB Jeff Ballard, offensive lineman Aaron Brown was lost with a broken ankle, and DE Tommy Blake missed four consecutive games during a medical leave. So instead of reprising Boise State's run to the BCS, TCU will meet a Houston team with its own issues in the Texas Bowl.
Still, DE Chase Ortiz and RB Joseph Turner picked up the slack as TCU's season progressed. Ortiz led the Mountain West with eight sacks and had 141⁄2 tackles for loss, and TCU gave up only 19.2 points a game. Turner rushed for 226 yards and four TDs in the final regular-season game, a 45-33 victory against San Diego State.
Meanwhile, Cougars coach Art Briles bolted for Baylor after the regular season, and the top lieutenants on offense followed. So Houston might have to rely more on defense than usual, and the Cougars allowed more than 29.9 points a game this season despite being 49th in the nation in total defense.
That puts more pressure on the Cougs offense. Here's the test for TCU's defense: Houston was fourth in the nation in total offense — 513.2 yards a game — and 10th in rushing offense (239.2 yards a game). TB Anthony Alridge was 13th in the nation in all-purpose yards. He was third in the C-USA in rushing — the league boasts two 2,000-yard rushers — and averaged 6.4 yards a carry, and he has the speed to get to the edge and the ability to run between the tackles. He also had three 200-yard receiving games this season. WR Donnie Avery is the Cougars' other dynamite playmaker. He averaged 111.3 yards a game.

PICK: HOUSTON +4


BOWL RECORD: 2 - 6 - 1