Probable BCS Teams

[Underdog88]

VT -2.5 is the "trap" of the bunch. There will be 80% of the public on that one if you ask me. I hope it climbs....

Agreed. It opened at a pick & is now standing at 3. Lean to the Kansas ML. Everything else is staying the same... I don't think the books want to move off of 14 in the USC game, but if that goes to 13.5, I'm all over the Trojans. I think they have a field day against the Illinois pass D, & Illinois will struggle against a very good run defense. I almost want to grab it now, because I don't want the hook to come out...

I've been hard on Hawaii all season, but if there is a game they'll be up for, it would be this. the Bulldogs have to be less than thrilled with how things ended up, I don't care what anyone says. IMO if Hawaii beat Washington by 21+, this line would be sitting at 7.5.

[NittanyLions94]

VT to -3

Georgia to -11

[Skinsfan]

my thoughts....

I think OSU matches up pretty well with LSU. LSU no doubt has the talent edge, but i think their style of play on offense plays right into OSU's hands. I am concerned on how OSU will score though.... from the OSU games I watched, i noticed defenses played about 10-15 yards off the OSU receivers almost exclusively, all but surrendering the slant. LSU wont do that because they have the speed to play m2m.

Georgia game may be the most interesting game to me.... I think GA will do what they do well... run the ball and keep Hawaii's offense on the sidelines. Pretty sure GA will come to play after seeing what happened to Oklahoma last year. But they better take HAW seriously.

I think Vatech has the potential to ROLL Kansas... Kansas was overrated all year, imo, and Vatech is by far the toughest defense they will have played. Would have rather seen Vatech play WVA though.

I agree with whoever said Illinois not ready for this stage (Stif, i think). Great story this year with a great win @ OSU... but USC is hot right now... bad time to catch the Trojans imo. that being said, i will be rooting for illinois.

I also think Oklahoma is going to win convincingly, for two reasons: 1) They will be coached up big time after last years embarrassment and 2) WVA may come out flat after BLOWING their NC hopes.

Just my initial thoughts and i reserve the right to totally contradict myself in the coming weeks.

[EddieP]

Delaware at Southern Illinois
Fri 12/7 141 Delaware +1½ -110
8:00PM (EST) 142 Southern Illinois -1½ -110
Richmond at Appalachian State
Sat 12/8 143 Richmond +2 -110
4:00PM (EST) 144 Appalachian State -2 -110

[Underdog88]

Skinsfan- based on your thoughts on how Georgia will play, it would make sense to look into the under. Sitting at 68 right now, & you know where the public will stand on that one...


USC down to 13 @ 5Dimes.... I can't see it getting to 12, I may jump on it now.

[Stifler's Mom]

I agree with most of what you said Skins. Good stuff....and made me look at the Oklahoma/WV game from a different angle than before, and it makes it alot easier to justify OU being a -6.5 fave. I believe the public will remember Boise/Oklahoma last year, and they'll remember WVU over UGA 2 years back, and think WVU is a pretty good play getting that TD. The early numbers show a 50/50 split on this game, and I'm interested to see where it goes from here. One thing to note though, both WVU and Boise jumped out big early in those games, but it was apparent that UGA and OU wore them down at the end each time and could basically score at will in the late 3rd and 4th qtrs. Unfortunately for them, it was too late. OU avoiding some early strikes by WV is probably the key there, and who should know it better than Oklahoma? They should be ready this time.

Oddly enough, early public numbers show 75% on USC, but the line has dropped as low as -13 at 5dimes. If it's sharp money, I think they might be wrong on that one....as I still do not believe the Illini have the talent or experience to compete with USC in the Rose Bowl, and USC could win that by 30+

Here's a small sample of what the public is saying on the VT/KAN game, from a VT fan on another message board:

like i said we ended up 3rd in the bcs rankings because we were first in the computers but we got no respect in the coaches or harris poll

wow. what bias

and by the way if we dont beat kansas by 4 touchdowns, that is sad

Do I trust this guy, and the rest of the betting public who have pounded the line up? Or the oddsmakers who opened it at a pick em? Seems I will easily get my +4.5 with KAN till it's all said and done. It was up to KAN +4 at BetCRIS earlier this morning, who has now dropped to KAN +3.5. Doubt that was public money buying it back down, so if I'm right, it makes me feel that my thoughts of KAN having a completely legit shot of winning that one outright are totally justified. The good thing is that books like SIA, Bodog, and BetUS should definitely hit +4.5 at some point though if the public is indeed pounding VT (haven't seen any public numbers released on that one yet), and if so, I'm all over that one.

I'm also going to jump on USC when that number hits what I believe to be it's low point, which it may have already. Public almost definitely drives that back over 2 TD's, and if I happen to change my mind for some reason, I can always buy it back at maybe +14.5 and hope for a middle....but right now I'm leaning strongly to USC -13.

UGA is getting 67% to Hawaii's 33% as of the time i'm writing this. That line actually opened at -8.5 and jumped to -10.5. Seems like a strong jump for just 67%, BUT, it could have been a much higher % at opening, with basically all the money coming in on UGA? Or did sharp money move it up early? Hard to tell, cause unfortunately, the books don't release public numbers until they've settled on a line, which they seem to have done at -10.5 (and also why the public numbers aren't out yet for the VT/KAN game IMO). If they did, indentifying sharp money would be way too simple.

The shocker to me is that a whopping 75% are currently backing Ohio St so far, and they've dropped that line to OSU +5.5. If you like LSU, get it now cause it's not going any lower than LSU -5.5 IMHO. Also interested to see where that one goes in the next few days....

[Stifler's Mom]

Skinsfan- based on your thoughts on how Georgia will play, it would make sense to look into the under. Sitting at 68 right now, & you know where the public will stand on that one...


USC down to 13 @ 5Dimes.... I can't see it getting to 12, I may jump on it now.

I just got it at -12.5 at 5Dimes. Locked it in for 2 units. I too doubt it goes down to -12, but then again, I was quite shocked to get the -12.5. That line will be at least USC -14.5 by kickoff, if not more. I suspect sharps are playing games with that line....hitting it early on ILL, to drop the line and try to get people like you and I to follow and drop it even more, and then they're going to max bet USC when they get a low enough line and drive it thru the roof.....

[Underdog88]

FAU moneyline over Memphis as soon as that comes out. They'll be dogged because Memphis went on a little run, but FAU is the better team with the better coach.... I'm hoping to get +200 or more out of it

[Underdog88]

I just got it at -12.5 at 5Dimes. Locked it in for 2 units. I too doubt it goes down to -12, but then again, I was quite shocked to get the -12.5. That line will be at least USC -14.5 by kickoff, if not more.

I would be very shocked if it wasn't 14 at gametime. I was going to jump on, but I ended up playing a teaser USC-6.5/OSU+11.5 3 to win 3 units. I'm likely going to end up on the Buckeyes ML as well, but damn at even $$$ that looks tasty :thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

The thing I worry about in that teaser is OSU +11.5. If they don't win outright, they're going to get hammered, IMHO, which (to me) makes teasing it kinda pointless. I could be wrong though, and getting USC at -6.5 should translate into an easy W, and then at the very least it leaves you with a favorable line on OSU, plus options with the OSU game :thumbs:

[Daws1089]

FAU moneyline over Memphis as soon as that comes out. They'll be dogged because Memphis went on a little run, but FAU is the better team with the better coach.... I'm hoping to get +200 or more out of it

fau is extatic to be in this bowl imo. yea memphis is happy to make it too, but when was the last time the fau team went to a bowl? probly never in my lifetime.


another thing, over the past 5-6 years, VT has been dissapointing in bowl games. From what i remember they choked against cal, louisville, uga, and auburn. for whatever reason, beamer cant get his boys up for bowl games.

[Underdog88]

The thing I worry about in that teaser is OSU +11.5. If they don't win outright, they're going to get hammered, IMHO, which (to me) makes teasing it kinda pointless.

I've been on the LSU fade to end the season,. Look at thier margin of victory vs. the better teams they played. Aside from V-Tech, they didn't beat anyone with a winning record by over 7 pts. I don't think they are anything close to what the Gators were last season, & I really don't see the Buckeyes getting blown out.

Moneylines just came out for those games as well. I got stupid & played one more...

USC-440
Oklahoma-235
Hawaii+21.5-600

2 to win 2.08


That should pretty much do it for me, now I'm just waiting on all the other games to straight play...

[dwd14]

pretty funny how we are already bettin on the games and its 51 days away, thats the definition of gettin the line early.

loving usc and hawaii at early looks.
everyone and their mother is gonna be on va tech and usc in the rose bowl is always a good bet.
leaning to oklahoma cause when they are healthy they look like possibly the best team all year, just my opinion, but they held missouri to hardly any points in the second half when they have been lighting it up against everyone.
early lean to lsu over osu, ohio state is 0-8 against sec teams in bowl games.

[Stifler's Mom]

Update on lines and pub percentage....it's amazing how much they can shift early...

There are now 56% on LSU. Seems like that line is going to stabilize around LSU -5.5 and get some decently even action.

As predicted, a ridiculous 91% are on VA Tech as of now. That line, IMO, is only going to climb....as no one seems to respect Kansas at all.

Oklahoma is up to 73%, which surprises me a bit, and the line is shifting towards -7. I believe that once the true squares start chiming in leading up to the game, the pub percentage will actually shift back in favor or WV. We'll see.

Georgia has climbed to 73% and the line has moved to -11 at 5Dimes.

USC is still getting 73%, and the line is back to -13 after opening at -14 and hitting as low as -12.5 earlier today. Seems getting it at -12.5 is going to be the best line offered on USC, so hopefully I made a good move by buying it early....just in case it lands close to the line.

[FlyersFan]

i would really be hesitant to go out and bet a whole bunch of these games right now, based on the fact that every year, there are lots of key guys who get suspended for academics/being an idiot in these games.

Also, 30-50 days off for most of these teams is a factor and whatever momentum a team had or didn't have at the end of the season is gone by the time they play these games. I think (and we see it ever year) the 2 most important factors in capping these are (1) does the team really give a **** about its bowl game/what does it mean to the program and (2) how do they matchup. But (1) is the most important factor, IMO. Most of these games are truly meaningless to teams, even BCS games to some. And to others they mean everything for a program.