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if you had bet the other side of a 75% or more public play (sides and total) starting week 6 you would have went 56-33 ATS based on closing lines (there are a few totals that the public % wasnt available that may have changed the numbers very slightly) if you only played the sides you would have gone 23-9 ats. the week 8 numbers are staggering...
11-2 totals 8-1 sides
i looked into all 75% plays for the college year so far, the public cleaned up week 1 and thru the first 5 weeks were over .500 with totals, with sides the public was around .500 but since week 6 vegas has been cleaning up in these situations. it really makes sense it would be that way too since after 5 weeks vegas can make better lines. i dont think this is a trend that will change anytime soon, in the end vegas wins, i am goign to track this for the rest of the year and see if i can find public %'s from previous years(i dont know if thats possible), i;m also going to track it for college bball season, if it profitable next year i am going to put 1 unit on every game that falls in this situation and ride it out for the year, i will likely wait till week 3 to start it. but i will track this and see how it goes.
here are yearly numbers for fading 75% + sides
week 1: 6-13
since: 92-63
for the year: 98-76
if you expand it to 70%+ sides
for the year: 121-96, 114-81 if you take out week 1
fading totals 75% +
weeks 1-4: 29-37
since: 42-28
so for the year , if you faded all 75% or more sides and totals you would be:
169-141, and that is with a slow start. it looks like it would be best to wait a few weeks into the season to start the fade system. also doing this with reduced juice would be a must, many sites offer the -105 fridays but these numbers are based on closing lines so i'll have to figure that out.
i definately had too much time on my hands to do this :beer2: but it is worth it cuz i may seriously do this system next year.
11-2 totals 8-1 sides
i looked into all 75% plays for the college year so far, the public cleaned up week 1 and thru the first 5 weeks were over .500 with totals, with sides the public was around .500 but since week 6 vegas has been cleaning up in these situations. it really makes sense it would be that way too since after 5 weeks vegas can make better lines. i dont think this is a trend that will change anytime soon, in the end vegas wins, i am goign to track this for the rest of the year and see if i can find public %'s from previous years(i dont know if thats possible), i;m also going to track it for college bball season, if it profitable next year i am going to put 1 unit on every game that falls in this situation and ride it out for the year, i will likely wait till week 3 to start it. but i will track this and see how it goes.
here are yearly numbers for fading 75% + sides
week 1: 6-13
since: 92-63
for the year: 98-76
if you expand it to 70%+ sides
for the year: 121-96, 114-81 if you take out week 1
fading totals 75% +
weeks 1-4: 29-37
since: 42-28
so for the year , if you faded all 75% or more sides and totals you would be:
169-141, and that is with a slow start. it looks like it would be best to wait a few weeks into the season to start the fade system. also doing this with reduced juice would be a must, many sites offer the -105 fridays but these numbers are based on closing lines so i'll have to figure that out.
i definately had too much time on my hands to do this :beer2: but it is worth it cuz i may seriously do this system next year.
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