Week 8 Lines are out Discussion

[JayCol]

Christ..who am i kidding....RU will win it...already down to -2 at 5dimes:laughing:

I agree RU will win it, the coach knows how to get the team ready for a big game.

JC

[Irish Sooner]

Skinsfan I agree with Maryland. Maryland teams always start the season off slow andthen build momentum throughout the year, this is due to the complex offense that they run. Maryland is always a nice team to start making money with towards the middle of the year. :thumbs:

[birdsfan5]

Rutgers will win SU:beerbang:

Miss st +23 I came up with 10. Miss st is a solid team with a good defense and running game. I feel they will run the ball and pull out a late SU win.

[NathanUK]

I agree with those above that like:

Louisville -3 at UCONN
Maryland -4 vs. Virginia

I also like:
Colorado +4 vs. Kansas
I just don't think Kansas is as good as their record shows, and we know how well home dogs have been performing this season.

I like my Cats +7 vs. Florida too, but I stay away from betting on my team.

[Livin tha Life]

[QUOTE=NittanyLions94;89396]I am aware of the trap line, which is why I want talked off the ledge.[/QUOTE

[pitch21]

These are public plays but I like both Oklahoma -29 @ Iowa St. and Texas -24.5 @ Baylor......anyone else have the same feeling?

[Underdog88]

SFLA IS NOT going to go undefeated this year. It just is too hard. These are 19 and 20 year old kids that don't come to play every week. If they did, we wouldn't have the Stanfords beating the USC's every week. I think this is a sucker line. As HD says, if it looks too good to be true it probably is. RUT will be sky high for this game and lets not forget, they still have a chance to win the conference with some help. If you play the old, team A beat team B and team B beat team C **** Nitts, you wouldn't have any upsets. I think Rutgers was looking ahead last week at Syracuse which is why they came out asleep. I can promise you one thing, SFLA will get Rutgers best game whatever that may be. And all you guys who were singing the praises of Shiano (sp?) last year....what, all of a sudden he can't coach now? I think it is a trap/sucker line.......

and look at what happened to the vaunted Cincy team last weekend. Held to 24 points by a brutal LOU D and turned it over 40 times in the game. **** happens. I do think it is funny how all of a sudden we have annoited SFLA as the only team that could beat the Patriots. They are human and they will lose at least once along the way....

:thumbs:



IMO the line alone is telling you they expect a close one, I'm leaning Rutgers. Nobody is talking about the actual matchup, just about how it looks like a trap line, or how thursday homedogs cover a lot, or how sweet USF is. Rutgers averages 182 rushing/307 passing, while USF averages 180 on the ground & 213 passing. Let's look at the passing attacks. Rutgers has the edge there (The Scarlet Knights are the 12th best passing attack, while USF is ranked 73rd), & Teel has thrown for 300 yards in the last 3 games. However, this is far & away the best pass D Rutgers has faced this year (USF #15 pass D in the nation). Maryland is #30, while Cuse Navy & Cincy are 96, 101, & 102! For USF, this is the best pass D they have faced, as the Rutgers pass D is ranked 5th in the nation. On the ground, both are able to move the ball. As Nitts mentioned, Rutgers has allowed some big yardage on the ground... They allowed 150 to Cincy, but the Bearcats ran the ball 40 times, so 3.8 ypc allowed really isn't that bad. They allowed 254 to Navy, but that's really not bad as Navy does nothing but run. The Terps game worries me a bit, as they allowed 239 there... I think the key for the Rutgers D is to stop Grothe from running, as he has more yards than his rbs. Rutgers is usually able to get a good pass rush on the qb, so I think they have the ability to limit those big runs by Grothe. IMO it will come down to who wins the turnover battle... Rutgers has now lost 2 games because of turnovers (4 vs Cincy & 3 vs. Maryland). I'm sure Schiano will be preaching about them protecting the football. If you really look, this is only USF's 2nd big test on the road, with Auburn being the 1st. They won the Auburn game because of turnovers, Aub had 5 of them!

[BoKnows]

Can we talk a little more about this USF at Rutgers game? I'm very confused as to why this line is set at -2.5. The oddsmakers have to take public perception in to account, and USF is seen as an invincible force at the moment and to get even action they could probably set this thing at -7, even dangle the hook at -7.5. Rutgers does have a very good offense, but USF is giving up less than 300 YPG, including their last game in which they held UCF to 145 yards of total offense. USF went in to Auburn and scored 26 and held the Tigers under 300 yards of total offense. That was also the same game that USF was held to their lowest rushing output, 135 yards(not too bad if you ask me). That's the same Auburn D that held McFadden and co. to 67 yards rushing and Tim Tebow's Gators to 111 yards on the ground. Looking at Rutgers' D in comparison, they had nearly 300 yards rolled up on them on the ground by Maryland, 254 against Navy, 150 by Cincy, and 112 by Syracuse(that is the only game all season that Syracuse went for 100+ on the ground BTW).


I feel like I'm losing my train of thought right now but basically what I'm trying to get at is, USF just looks like a FAR superior team at this point in the season. Can someone talk me off the ledge here and show me what I'm missing?

Home Live Dog Thursday night....need I say more. Like you mentioned this line looks a little skinny for such a powerhouse like USF..(see exageration here). Take the points and enjoy. Though betting against USF this year for me has been an issue:bang:

[NittanyLions94]

:thumbs:



IMO the line alone is telling you they expect a close one, I'm leaning Rutgers. Nobody is talking about the actual matchup, just about how it looks like a trap line, or how thursday homedogs cover a lot, or how sweet USF is. Rutgers averages 182 rushing/307 passing, while USF averages 180 on the ground & 213 passing. Let's look at the passing attacks. Rutgers has the edge there (The Scarlet Knights are the 12th best passing attack, while USF is ranked 73rd), & Teel has thrown for 300 yards in the last 3 games. However, this is far & away the best pass D Rutgers has faced this year (USF #15 pass D in the nation). Maryland is #30, while Cuse Navy & Cincy are 96, 101, & 102! For USF, this is the best pass D they have faced, as the Rutgers pass D is ranked 5th in the nation. On the ground, both are able to move the ball. As Nitts mentioned, Rutgers has allowed some big yardage on the ground... They allowed 150 to Cincy, but the Bearcats ran the ball 40 times, so 3.8 ypc allowed really isn't that bad. They allowed 254 to Navy, but that's really not bad as Navy does nothing but run. The Terps game worries me a bit, as they allowed 239 there... I think the key for the Rutgers D is to stop Grothe from running, as he has more yards than his rbs. Rutgers is usually able to get a good pass rush on the qb, so I think they have the ability to limit those big runs by Grothe. IMO it will come down to who wins the turnover battle... Rutgers has now lost 2 games because of turnovers (4 vs Cincy & 3 vs. Maryland). I'm sure Schiano will be preaching about them protecting the football. If you really look, this is only USF's 2nd big test on the road, with Auburn being the 1st. They won the Auburn game because of turnovers, Aub had 5 of them!

I threw down a little on the matchups looking at how bad the Rutgers run D was, in comparison to a good USF rush offense. And there are 2 ways to look at turnovers:

1) Did USF's superior corner play and hard hitting cause the turnovers?
2) Was Auburn just not careful with the football and fumbles snaps, etc.

Looking at Auburn's games, they have had 3, 5(USF game), 5, 1, 1, 1, and 1 turnovers in all of their games.

All the match ups point to USF IMO, but the line keeps throwing me off.

[hodown]

i find it interesting that the public is on kentucky pretty hard. not surprising because they beat lsu last weekend, but the fact that the public never hammers homedawgs. its alot of points to ask from fla on the road against a good team, but i dont think kentucky will have enough in the tank to take lsu and fla down in back to back weeks. and i think its hard to justify betting on a team at +7 if you dont think they can win.

[PhillyFan20]

My Book has Auburn at +11.5 and Michigan at -2.5 I'm thinking about a 6 pt. teaser to make it Auburn +17.5 and Michigan +3.5. Any thoughts about this?

[Larry]

i find it interesting that the public is on kentucky pretty hard. not surprising because they beat lsu last weekend, but the fact that the public never hammers homedawgs. its alot of points to ask from fla on the road against a good team, but i dont think kentucky will have enough in the tank to take lsu and fla down in back to back weeks. and i think its hard to justify betting on a team at +7 if you dont think they can win.

The 2 sites i looked at have Kent @ 60% and 51 % so I don't think that the public is hammering kent that hard. This game definitly looks like one of the tougher ones to figure out this week.

[hodown]

hammering was poor word usage, but 61% at WL. thats pretty high for a homedawg

[FlyersFan]

well i am down on RUT +3 -115...was hoping to get a little bit better ML play than +115 which is the best i can find.

there is NO freeking way that KY can be as up as they have to be 2 weeks in a row to beat FLA this week. There is still a talent edge to FLA and KY had to play a pretty near perfect game vs. LSU to win that one. I just don't see them doing this 2 weeks in a row. FLA went into LSU 2 weeks ago and should have left with a DD W. No reason they don't leave KY with a DD win, IMO.


Really torn on the OSU game. MSU has just given OSU fits over the years and MSU can run the football with Ringer. I haven't seen OSU's run D play a team with a decent running game yet this season, which is my problem in laying 17 1/2, especially now that it has creeped over 17. I have been taking OSU 1H the past few weeks and not looking back. I am even a little hesitant to lay the 1H chalk this week. Seems like a game that could be 27-20 or 41-10.


TENN at +1 is looking better and better. They are quietly flying under the radar right now, and i am still not totally impressed with ALA.



tempted also to look at WASH +11 1/2...that is a nasty rivalry and WASH is a much better team at home than on the road. They were with ASU for a half before getting run over in the 2H. ORE RB is out for the year, as well, i believe.

[DevilsAdvokt]

I agree with those above that like:

Louisville -3 at UCONN
Maryland -4 vs. Virginia

I also like:
Colorado +4 vs. Kansas
I just don't think Kansas is as good as their record shows, and we know how well home dogs have been performing this season.

I like my Cats +7 vs. Florida too, but I stay away from betting on my team.

Not as good as their record shows??? 9th in total yards per game 14th in the pass 16th on the ground and 3rd in points per game?
they beat kansas st on the road? are you mad cause they kick kentucky's ass every time they play you in basketball....


Kentucky winning last week was as big of upset as standford beating USC in other words never should have happened the MOB probably had their hands dirty in those 2 games....

:fire: