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This is one of those games for the 3rd straight week for the Illini where the line looks off by at least a FG. Yup, one of those "that line looks too good to be true and probably is" games. If I were a "public" bettor on either coast who hadn't seen these teams play, I would have been all over PSU and Wisky. This week, I would be all over Iowa. And this is exactly what scares me. I know the public is gonna be all over my Illini as the line has already rose a point. However, the lines the last 2 games, the public was all over PSU and Wisky at over 80% both times and only the Wisky game saw a half point drop, whereas this week's line has already moved up a point. I am hoping this week is one of those cases where the public pounces on a line and it actually works out for them.
In terms of the game (granted, I may be slightly biased), but I don't see much of a way Iowa can win. The IL players I know and have talked to the last few days, I can't notice a different attitude in them than at a different point in the season. They seem very grounded and aren't acting real cocky like they are finally the ****. I do slightly worry about a sandwich game coming off the biggest win in recent memory and the game that was sold out before the season started and the only one people were really talking about (since they can bust out their "Muck Fichigan/Ann Arbor is a whore" shirts). However, if you look at Iowa, they are just not very good. Brodell and Moeaki are both out, leaving them w/a very inexperienced WR corps - not good for an OL that is equally inexperienced while ranking 118/119 in sacks allowed, esp. since IL is finally getting a pass rush this season. Their run game has bogged down the last few weeks. Christensen's #s look good but his completion % is just lower than Juice's, which is pretty bad.
On the other side of the ball, Iowa's defense is solid but I don't think that will be enough. IL has the 5th ranked ground game in the nation that will put their D to the test, a D that got shredded by PSU last week. Even if our run game suffers slightly, Zook is not afraid to put McGee in there to get the passing game going, as he managed to put up some solid #s in his only extended action against Mizzou.
I can't predict a score for this game but I just can't see reasons why IL should lose this game. We also haven't beat Iowa since '99 so we are due - why not this year? Anyways, just my two cents.
Moose
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