Illinois @ Syracuse

[Q-Unit]

Syracuse at home and on the road are different as night and day.

I could be wrong, but other than last year (cuz i lost taking them lol), the Cuse have pretty much been solid ATS if not SU at home no matter the competition.

[BoilerBacker]

I don't love the -12.5 but Illinois can put up points and seeing them win this by 14+ wouldn't surprise me at all. I will probably pass on this game as for me its the Illini or nothing cause I'd need to see +17 to even consider cuse.

Illinois managed to only score 21 pts vs. W Illinois, a team that went 5-6 last year in 1-AA. This, despite the fact that WIU only had 4 first downs the entire game. Illinois punted 9 times in the game and had a lot of mistakes.... a lost fumble, an INT, 7 penalties for 65 yds, 2 sacks for -18 yds and only averaged 34 yd/punt. They were 6 of 17 on third down efficiency.

Against Missouri, they had 5 turnovers, 7 penalties for 55 yds, 3 sacks for -27 yds, 2 other fumbles that they recovered. Juice is all hype in my opinion (at this point). He is the only Big Ten QB with a rating below 100.

Illinois is mistake prone which makes going against them attractive.

[FlyersFan]

Flyers.... If Illinois is such a suicide play on the road, then why the hell isn't Syr a good play? You are not making sense. Iowa has a GOOD defense. I would never judge a play by how a team looked in one or two games. Plenty of examples of that last week....NEB, WVU (lucky cover), Temple, Cal, Georgia, Wisc... I could go on. Most of their opponents were Crap State and the like.

I agree, if you have better plays then they should be played, but if Ill is SUICIDE, then Syr seems to be a decent play.

lmao...you're classic...when i saw you posted i knew you would completely break down my entire thing like you always do in every thread. you kill me.

just because i wouldn't play one side doesn't mean the other side is a good play. have fun if you want to throw your money on a team that has scored 12 points all year long. i guess you are smarter than the oddsmaker BB.

so i guess the oddsmaker is giving free money away this week....woooohoooo......oddsmaker must not have seen either of these teams play and his opinion on games is obviously nothing when it comes to capping a game.

here is the discussion i am sure BB:

Oddsmaker: hmmmm, i haven't seen ILL or SYR this year, and i remember ILL went to the Rose Bowl in the mid 90's and they have had some good players through the years. Syracuse hasn't done much lately. I think ILL is going to kill them by like 20 points because Jeff George is going to throw 5 TD's this week. Yupp....ILL -12 1/2.

My whole point was ONCE AGAIN just because i don't trust ILL laying 12 1/2 on the road doesn't fking mean that SYR +12 1/2 is a good play. I don't trust SYR either.


i would flip a coin in this ATS battle. the funny thing is that i know people are going to bet one side or the other in this one and then bitch and complain when one of these teams implodes. Guaranteed post for Saturday: Fck "insert either ILL or SYR". They suck. I can't believe they played that way. Im never betting on them again.

[BoilerBacker]

lmao...you're classic...when i saw you posted i knew you would completely break down my entire thing like you always do in every thread. you kill me.

just because i wouldn't play one side doesn't mean the other side is a good play. have fun if you want to throw your money on a team that has scored 12 points all year long. i guess you are smarter than the oddsmaker BB.

so i guess the oddsmaker is giving free money away this week....woooohoooo......oddsmaker must not have seen either of these teams play and his opinion on games is obviously nothing when it comes to capping a game.

here is the discussion i am sure BB:

Oddsmaker: hmmmm, i haven't seen ILL or SYR this year, and i remember ILL went to the Rose Bowl in the mid 90's and they have had some good players through the years. Syracuse hasn't done much lately. I think ILL is going to kill them by like 20 points because Jeff George is going to throw 5 TD's this week. Yupp....ILL -12 1/2.

My whole point was ONCE AGAIN just because i don't trust ILL laying 12 1/2 on the road doesn't fking mean that SYR +12 1/2 is a good play. I don't trust SYR either.


i would flip a coin in this ATS battle. the funny thing is that i know people are going to bet one side or the other in this one and then bitch and complain when one of these teams implodes. Guaranteed post for Saturday: Fck "insert either ILL or SYR". They suck. I can't believe they played that way. Im never betting on them again.

You said SUICIDE play. That is fatal. In other words bet the other side.

And you are the kook making the point that SYR has looked like crap. That is WHY the line is where it is. They know dudes like you and going to say "Syracuse looks like crap and only has scored 12 points". So they can put the line at 12 and a bunch of lemmings will bet on Illinois because they heard about this Juice guy and how good he is and Syracuse has sucked for years...

You know me, I would never say... Iam never betting this side again. This week however, I think Syracuse at home vs. a mistake prone Illinois team is a good bet. And I will give you 100 to 1 odds that Syracuse will not go 0-12 ATS this year. Because, I know, every week this season you could write the same stuff you have written in this post....and odds are Syr will cover 6 games this year.... even if they suck.

[FlyersFan]

You said SUICIDE play. That is fatal. In other words bet the other side.

And you are the kook making the point that SYR has looked like crap. That is WHY the line is where it is. They know dudes like you and going to say "Syracuse looks like crap and only has scored 12 points". So they can put the line at 12 and a bunch of lemmings will bet on Illinois because they heard about this Juice guy and how good he is and Syracuse has sucked for years...

You know me, I would never say... Iam never betting this side again. This week however, I think Syracuse at home vs. a mistake prone Illinois team is a good bet. And I will give you 100 to 1 odds that Syracuse will not go 0-12 ATS this year. Because, I know, every week this season you could write the same stuff you have written in this post....and odds are Syr will cover 6 games this year.... even if they suck.

dude- take a deep breath and see if you can get my point...ok. I don't think ILL is a good play. I completely agree with you in saying they are mistake prone. BUT, that doesn't mean that SYR +12 is a good play either. SYR is one of the worst offensive teams in football and their D is very below average as well. I don't know what part of my point you don't get:

IMO, this game is best left alone. If there are 200+ sides/totals/halfs whatever to bet this week. and you play 10 games this weekend, and include this one, that means you have isolated this play in the top 5 percent of the plays this weekend. I find that a little hard to believe. ****, bet the thing, i don't care. I certainly will find better places for my money this weekend. It may cover....anything can happen. This game is an ATS coinflip. If you can't find anything better on the card this weekend than an ATS coinflip, you haven't done your homework. You tend to write all kinds of negative things BB about the side you don't like and you never seem to look at the negatives of the side you do like. I see TONS of negatives for BOTH sides and that is why i am staying away from the game. Got better things to do with my money and my time than try and guess which team is going to throw 7 picks on Saturday.

Im out....i made my point, it's my point, it's only my thoughts having looked at this game COMPLETELY from BOTH sides. I have no idea what is going to happen in this game and neither does anyone else. What have you seen that makes you think SYR is going to do anything offensively? That is why i consider it a coin flip game. I think there are tons of better plays this weekend. Those are my thoughts, right or wrong, do with them what you want. I agree with things Stif said, as well. Also, If the oddsmaker wanted lemmings on ILL i think he would have set this line a lot lower don't you think. ILL -7 or so? If the oddsmaker likes SYR why wouldn't he make it easier to take ILL? If this was such a bad line, don't you think he would be worried about the big time guys who step to the window in vegas and drop the max early in the week hammering SYR?

GL! if you play this game. It certainly has made for interesting conversation.

[Stifler's Mom]

lmao...you're classic...when i saw you posted i knew you would completely break down my entire thing like you always do in every thread. you kill me.

just because i wouldn't play one side doesn't mean the other side is a good play. have fun if you want to throw your money on a team that has scored 12 points all year long. i guess you are smarter than the oddsmaker BB.

so i guess the oddsmaker is giving free money away this week....woooohoooo......oddsmaker must not have seen either of these teams play and his opinion on games is obviously nothing when it comes to capping a game.

here is the discussion i am sure BB:

Oddsmaker: hmmmm, i haven't seen ILL or SYR this year, and i remember ILL went to the Rose Bowl in the mid 90's and they have had some good players through the years. Syracuse hasn't done much lately. I think ILL is going to kill them by like 20 points because Jeff George is going to throw 5 TD's this week. Yupp....ILL -12 1/2.

My whole point was ONCE AGAIN just because i don't trust ILL laying 12 1/2 on the road doesn't fking mean that SYR +12 1/2 is a good play. I don't trust SYR either.


i would flip a coin in this ATS battle. the funny thing is that i know people are going to bet one side or the other in this one and then bitch and complain when one of these teams implodes. Guaranteed post for Saturday: Fck "insert either ILL or SYR". They suck. I can't believe they played that way. Im never betting on them again.

How the heck can you say "I guess the oddsmaker is giving away free money", which I assume means that you are saying we think SYR +12.5 is free money....when the public is all over Illinois? Sometimes the oddsmakers DO give away free money.....if you know where to look for it. Why? Because they have no choice but to do so to make an attempt at getting something that even closely resembles even action....weather it be from taking sharp money to offset the public money, or trying to get even public action on a bad line, or just plain old posting a piss poor line. They too are not above making mistakes.

With that being said, you know as well as I do that the oddsmakers don't run some kind of simulated game and come up with a number the game "should land on". The numbers they release are strictly and solely what they are because that is what the oddsmakers think is going to give them their best shot at gaining even action on both sides of the number. They don't give a **** if the line is off by 20 points if they get even action and collect the vig. They know the public will be all over just about every fave. Anyone who has been in this business (or hobby, whatever) for any amount of time knows the public will bet on the faves most of the time (why else would sharp players play primarily dogs), so adding a few points to the fave here and there isn't going to hurt them....creating possible and potential value on the dog in alot of situations. In addition, when you say SYR has a **** offense, you make another point that I was already going to make....that the public also loves to back a team that they think has a good or flashy offense, and go against a team whose offense "sucks". Another reason the oddsmakers add more points to the fave and again potentially create more value on the home dog.

This is why I look anti-public and dogs before anything else. The public always reacts to one or two good or bad performances, and once they think a team sucks (or rules), they will generally think that for the rest of the entire season, if not into the next....which all goes back to the oddsmakers setting lines not on the actual probable result, which they could care less about, but to get as close to even money as they can on both sides.

I would really like to hear an explanation as to how the numbers SYR put up against WASH and IOWA are even remotely relevant to what they might be capable of doing vs ILL though? Using that thinking, one could say Boise St has a worse offense than SYR, since WSH held Boise to just 10 and SYR got 12 against them....and that would actually even be more relevant since you're at least comparing a same opponent to each offense.

In any case, one man's trash is often another man's treasure....and that same saying holds true in sports wagering. This game may look like garbage for someone who utilizes your capping style, but it may be pure gold to someone like myself and/or BB who analyze things a bit differently and look for different reasons to play on teams than most.

Time will tell, but I have noticed that often times the best plays on the board are overlooked by many (including myself of course) as ones that could go either way ATS and aren't worth betting on, and then someone ends up covering by 30 points, and then it's like "well duh, if i had just looked at this game from a different angle, i would have seen this coming".

[CuseFan10]

All this Syracuse talk is making me warm and fuzzy inside. :smclap:

So Flyers, how many plays are on the board this week?

[FlyersFan]

So Flyers, how many plays are on the board this week?

well, lets see. there are i believe 46 games. so that means 46 sides, about 40 totals, 1H, 2Halfs, 1H totals and probably about 20 2H and 2H totals bringing that number to about 200+.

stif et. all- im still trying to find where i said ILL was a good play. One point i want to make and i just reread this whole thread again.............no one has just taken a step back and analyzed this game for what it is besides ILL guy. Everyone just seems to be trying to make their case by saying "ILL sucks, turnover prone etc."...somehow their stats from the first 2 games ARE relevant and SYR aren't???? I just don't see how anyone can tell what is going on in this game. I find it funny how everyone is so sure that SYR is a great play....based on what? That is what i don't get. I have not said play one side or the other. Never have i said SYR won't cover.....My main POINT ONCE AGAIN......i can't make a case for either side....you could literally get a 30 point game either way and that is not the kind of game that is going to get my money. and i don't know how anyone who has watched either of these teams can either. Yeah, stif, SYR could win SU and you would be saying, dang i should have played it. SYR could also lose by 25 just as easily and you would be saying, wow, im glad i didn't touch that pile of ****. There are too many unknowns and variables in this game. It isn't like the Marshall game last week where Marshall may suck, but you could make a good case for them with it being a rivalry etc...

You know the truth in this is that what the public thinks just in itself in reality doesnt mean ****, IMO. If it did all you anti-public guys would be up hundreds of units and thousands of dollars a season. Example, BB is a huge anti-public guy and i know he plays a lot of his baseball and other plays that way. He flat out got his ass handed to him before june 2nd. and after that he has done very very well. he has had some memorable years betting ( remember his baseball season from like 2 years ago...monster season) and he has had some just awful seasons in like CBB, hockey etc...where he has hung it up for periods of time. If you would have faded the public over the NFL season last couple years you would probably be roaming the street with a can. You guys act like the public is never right. And if betting against the public was so great on its own like i have heard described to me numerous times by BB and others, then why aren't you anti-public guys just making a killing every year in football?? I mean if it's that easy, then you could go grab a 3rd grader, teach him how to read a report over at covers and use an on-line sportsbook, and he could make millions. Using the public is ONE tool out of about 20 that people should be using. Public should be ONE tool of about 20 that you use to cap a game. Taking a play solely based on the public is no different than taking a play soley based on historical trends. neither mean a thing on their own. So it brings me to this question. Obviously if betting anti-public was a huge money maker, we would all be retired and just checking covers every day to fade the public. How do you then differentiate between what is a good anti-public dog and a bad one using no other tools?

I am also curious about one thing...i haven't seen a single person post what their power ratings are for this game or what they think the number should be. If 12 1/2 is off then what should it be? how can you tell if there is line value if you don't know what the number "should" be???? Line value is only relative if you have something to compare it to. Now if someone says they have 3 sets of power ratings that make this game 6 1/2, the public is all over ILL and the game is an 8AM kickoff for ILL (or something like that) then we are talking about a possible good play and an actual handicap of a game/situation/betting situation/public perception using multiple tools. But to just say a play is good because a random sample of people we know nothing about likes ILL isn't cutting it IMO. And once again, if it was that easy, 3rd graders would be dropping out of school and making millions by age 8. And WTF has SYR done to warrant anyone's money??

look i don't want to get into a pissing match over this. i am not even playing the game. i respect people's handicapping styles whether i agree with them or not. but the fact of the matter is that the ONLY thing anyone has mentioned in this entire thread that points to SYR is that 78 percent of the public is on ILL. I haven't seen anyone with a set of power ratings, i haven't seen anyone talk about scheduling, travel....anything that might be releveant to this game. I have seen BB bash ILL but i have not seen a case made for SYR at all. The thing i find fault in here is that everyone seems to be skipping over the fact that SYR is a bad football team too. And using the analogy in the 3rd week that, is SYR going to go 0-12 ATS is one of the dumbest fking things i have heard in a while. So what, no team has ever opened the season 0-3 ATS? And if they lose ATS this week it has any bearing on their next 9 games? No where did i say SYR shouldn't be bet on ever, either. There may be games in the future involving them where you get a good number, the other team is looking ahead, they are coming off a decent game ....whatever...**** 12 1/2 may be a good number, but somebody post the power ratings, scheduling spot whatever to show it....

So here are the reasons to play SYR that have been listed in this thread:

1) ILL sucks
2) 78 percent of a random group we know nothing about is on ILL
3) SYR isn't going to go 0-12 ATS this year.

i will also say this....if this line was SO off, the sharps who bet these games sunday night in veagswould have pounded this thing the minute it came out. It would be adjusted down to about 10 or less right away and certainly by now.


to each his own. play it, don't play it, bet 3 units on SYR...whatever.

always a good writeup by you stiffy whether i agree with you or not......:beerbang:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Great Post, FF. :beerbang: I've thought similar things reagrading the anti-public bandwagon for a while. I also think some cappers play the dog "just because" the public must be wrong, or "just because" the dog players are smarter, or sharps...but the fav can undoubtedly be the right play sometimes, and if you can pick your spots giving points or eating juice, when you really have support on why they win almost every time (but not hammering every fav of course), you will be alright. NFL last week is a good example. I play dogs and favs. Doesn't matter to me. Much like FF, Joepa, bookie or Mparris, I like to cap games on what I think will happen on the field....from the players talents, coaches abilities, or previous games....that's what makes capping and sports wagering fun for me, and is why I do it. I don't make much money off of it, and it is a hobby for me. Fun. Enjoyment. That's what it's about for me. I am addicted to watching sports, and trying to predict what will happen turns my crank. And I feel that if I capped another way, more in the vain of fading public, and the science of line-movement, etc, I would want to poke my eyes out with a stick. ALTHOUGH...I love to read up on points that back this type of capping "science", and find it very interesting to some degree, and really admire the people who do rely on this stuff to wager. Great ****.

On that note, great points by Stif too....we are such different cappers, I'm more along the lines of FF....but Stif sure makes a great read, and I have learned alot from guys like him, BB, rjp, beerman, etc over the years. I also almost always tail Stif when I'm running cold, as he is such a great capper, and is usually bang on when I'm in a rut. Thats why this place is so great! Different cappers....different styles, and great conversations. Love this ****!



As for this thread...It does seem that FF hasn't disagreed with either play from the start, and just feels that this game is too much of an unkown to risk wagering on....but people aren't picking up on that for some reason.

Cuse? He's just a mental midget.

[CuseFan10]

bringing that number to about 200+.

Ok, so 200+. I missed that the first 7 times you posted it, thanks buddy :thumbs:

[CuseFan10]

Cuse? He's just a mental midget.

:drunk:

[FlyersFan]

As for this thread...It does seem that FF hasn't disagreed with either play from the start, and just feels that this game is too much of an unkown to risk wagering on....but people aren't picking up on that for some reason.

Cuse? He's just a mental midget.

:beerbang: .....doesn't surprise me it took a hockey fan to figure that out.....

good post JML. bottom line is we are all trying to win.

lmao...you edited "you're" post for spelling because you knew cusefan was close by.....

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

:lmao...you edited "you're" post for spelling because you knew cusefan was close by.....

"Your" right about that.....vultures!

[Loaded Shooter]

Johnny Detriot says Ill -8 power rating...


:dunno:

Oh yeah, Illinios is 1-9 ATS in domed games since 1992

[Stifler's Mom]

Guys, I hope you don't think I just look at a card and pick the most anti-public plays, throw some loot on em, and call it a day, LOL

Seriously though, anti-public is ALWAYS my starting point. Why? Because the house NEVER LOSES, and NEVER WILL. I have said many times that there is so much more to playing anti-public than just looking at the percentage and saying "Well, there's 92% on Nebraska today, so Wake Forest must be a good play", or just playing every single game against what the public is on.

Anti-public is a capping style, just like any other that you guys use....not just a rule written in stone saying you must bet every single team against the public.

Now with that being said, I do not consider the likes of the guys you posted JML as "the public". That's one misconception many people have. Do you honestly think most of the people who bet on sports even have 1/4 of the knowledge of guys like yourself, FF, MParris, etc? Let alone apply it to each game??

When capping the games, I look for a reason NOT to play anti-public, and go from there....especially on weeknight football games where the line is nearly always shaded against the side the books KNOW the public is going to back. It's not rocket science to know the public is going to be on WVU and TCU tonight for example. So now I need a good reason NOT to play against both of those teams, because I know the line will be shaded against them....not the other way around looking for reasons to play ON either side.

Sometimes I even do play the public side, believe it or not. This will normally occur in a "crappy game" no one cares about, in which case "the public" is a more informed one, since Joe Q doesn't normally bet on Idaho vs Utah St. Therefore fading the public on such a game isn't necessarily always a good idea, so much so as it is on weeknight games involving high profile teams who Joe Q will back every single week, no matter what the line is.

The way I come up with my plays is difficult to lay out and explain. It's a result of many years of betting on each and every major sport, and applying a mixture of what I've learned about line movements, public percentage, knowledge of each sport (and the teams), how to spot "bad news" situations such as lines that are way off due to public perception and either avoid them completely or play the opposite, and just having a feel for what works and what doesn't.

I prefer situational plays (look aheads, let downs, revenge, etc), buying in on bad news (i.e. Syracuse sucks) when a situation presents itself to do so (I think fading ILL as a -12.5 road chalk is a pretty damn good situation for that) because in those spots, you're getting a favorable line, and trying to follow sharp line movements, yet still trying to get the line they got. Fading sharp moves aren't worth a dang if you keep losing by a half point because they moved the line so much that the value is gone. Also understanding lines and the importance (or unimportance) of certain things (such as the myth that +3 is some kind of key number in football, which matters way less than many people think it does). I mean don't get me wrong, I'll take +3.5 over +3 any day, but not if i have to pay -120 or -130 to get it. That's a losing proposition to pay the extra chalk as compared to how often it will come into play.

To me, it's all about trying to find spots where the line is in my favor, having good money management, and trying to get the best of each and every line I make a play on, looking for long term success....not being 100% right on every single game....because NO ONE can do that....and I think I've come up with my own little way of getting myself where I wanna be, because I'd say my style works out ok....and doesn't take a ton of time either.

In the end, you can sit here and come up with a bunch of reasons to play on both sides of just about every game, depending on what you feel is important and what isn't.

I think SYR is a complete steal on Saturday at +12.5. I don't even know that ILL is better than them. You just simply cannot compare SYR getting waxed by WASH and IOWA to what may happen against ILL....yet the line is reflecting how poor SYR was in those 2 games, against 2 teams that are superior to ILL.

BTW, turnovers are very important (obviously), and ANY team who commits them on a regular basis is never ever ever a good road chalk.

Bottom line, I knew not too many would see this game the way I do. Doesn't mean I'm right or wrong....just wanted to get a good feel for what some others thought on the game. I certainly haven't seen anything that changes my mind that SYR+ is a great play this Saturday....which is basically what I was looking for.

Great job by everyone who replied though. It's nice to read opinions on games from whoever they come from.