PHILS CBB SATURDAY***PICKS 1st4x play

[Cinticap]

YTD 29-18-1
+20 units

1x North Texas-5.5
1x Belmont-9.5
1x Cleve St. -7
1x Vanderbilt-8.5
3x Providence-1
3x Oklahoma +1.5
3x Gonzaga-20
4xUNC GREENSBORO-15 1st 4x play

[joepa66]

Breaking out Sparty and the hammer play.....GL and don't forget the broom!:thumbs:

[Cinticap]

I really wanted to play Northeastern today, but something is real fishy. The 6 year player Alex Murphy who is averaging 14 a game is out, and he played in the last game against Greensboro. Greensboro won by 1. With Murphy scoring 13. So if his substitute could just score it makes Northeastern a descent bet with home court figured in. I just have one of those fishy feelings about this game. I like to stay away from those. Murphy may actually be a bigger advantage then people expect even though they won with out him in a huge game. He did play for Duke, and Florida. I believe with him healthy Northeastern may just be a different team, and they just so happened by coincidence to play a great game without him last game. That being said if Northeastern does cover it blows that theory of mine up.

[Cinticap]

ADDING A 3 unit play

I was kind of waiting for an official injury report and I have that now so I'm adding a 3x play:

3x Rhode Island -2


Good luck all!

[Max NU]

Greetings Cinticap! would like to ask why you do not do totals, esp. since it is suppose to be the easiest vs moneylines/sides(ats)? GLT! Knock 'em dead! :beerbang:

[Cinticap]

In reply to no totals

I have been handicapping games for 25 years, I have used services, and have kept my overall record for eight years. After seven years, I gave up on the totals. I was hitting them at 11% worse rate than sides. I started to log records of some services, ones I thought were decent, and my plays record was better than there Totals over long periods of time. I started checking around the internet and separating totals and sides, and seems to be a trend. However I have heard the same as you have it doesn't apply to me over an 8 year period. Pretty significantly. I did find some records of a few handicappers that hit totals at a higher percentage than sides, but not many. Since I only bet my own plays, I did away with it, and focused that time on sides, and improved my percentage from last year this far. This far along my record is 2.1 percent better than last year on sides. I attribute that to the time I take in making a play.

Good luck today!

[Cinticap]

2 more adds

adding

1x Hofstra-1
1x Illinois st-2

[Cinticap]

also in reply to not handicapping totals

I also added this year with the extra time I have a few extra things that go into handicapping my sides. I now use a home team steam model where I give certain point values for average margin of victory to quality of opponent, and have been able to identify a few teams that under the right circumstances have an above average home court advantage

I also added a psychology of win model, measuring teams momentum in certain spots, and assigning values to these teams when they overcomes odds in these situations., and giving them certain values according to the quality of the teams they play in these spots.

I used this model in coming up with Hofstra, and Illinois st. Today, picks I made as adds later, because of the process I had to go thru to derive to advantages. This process of course is not infallible, but I have spotted and tracked these plays, and will figure it up at the end of the year, and see if it has enhanced my wining percentage or not.

[Max NU]

25 years?! Beats me by a bunch (3 going on 4 yrs here),but, in my short years I gave up everything else to focus 24/7 on this handicapping. I differ a bit in a way from yourself,in that if I have a losing "Category" (ml/sides/totals etc.) I will not stop to find a winning way...even if it means betting opposite my losers/or/losing category to turn them into winners...i'll even put energizer bunny to sleep!

Sounds/looks like you work really hard at what you do & hope you are as lucrative as you possibly can get...it is there for the taking,just figure it out...:thumbs:

[Cinticap]

so far my added plays were all a product of my 2 added models

all three added plays were based on my new models, and all three covered, I am showing a more lucrative year this far, and it appears my implementing the two models is the difference, so I am trying to become more lucrative.