JoePa's NCAA/NIT/CBI/CIT Tourney Thread

[BlueTooth3]

I always go back and forth on whether buying that half a point is worth it or no. More times then not, at about an 6 to 1 ratio, it isn't becessary, but that one time I don't buy it, and it's the difference with a win loss or push, keeps me buying :(...came in handy tonight...

[joepa66]

I always go back and forth on whether buying that half a point is worth it or no. More times then not, at about an 6 to 1 ratio, it isn't becessary, but that one time I don't buy it, and it's the difference with a win loss or push, keeps me buying :(...came in handy tonight...

Yea, I like those hooks in the lower lines in CBB like 1.5 and 2.5....generally don't buy hooks when the number is bigger and I love them in foots when I can get a 7 or 10 spot in my favor, but it means so much more in hoops and I hate losing because of a .5 line.

I typically subscribe to the following philosophy when considering buying the hook:

Whenever a half point is added to the line in football or basketball, I always considering buying the hook or buying the hook off. I don't like losing money just because if one-half point in a closely lined game or lines near the games scoring totals (i.e. Football 7 pts for a TD and PAT, 10 pts for a TD, PT & FG; Baskets 2 or 3 pts for FG or FG + FT in a closely contested game). Anything over 3 pts in basketball and generally 7 or 9 pts in football I do not buy the hook. I will not buy a hook on an 8.5 pt line just to get a push.

Half point hooks determine the outcome on hundreds of thousands of wagers every day. Half points beat bettors out of more money than any other type of wager. Sportsbooks beat the hell out of casual bettors and have the advantage when players lay a half point or take a line a half point under a round number.

It's the way books make the most profit every year. Moneyline sports like hockey and baseball are completely different situations. Sometimes it's necessary to lay -1.5 because they force players to give up -1.5 in baseball and hockey just to get a better price. Sportsbooks prove it's true by paying big money if you lay -1.5. They don't want players betting underdogs in baseball and hockey taking +1.5 so they make the line very high since they know the .5 hook comes into play everyday. That's a huge 2-1 advantage on players laying -1.5 in baseball and hockey because you only have one way to win---your team must win by 2 or more. Sportsbooks have two chances to beat you when you lay -1.5. They win when your team only wins by 1 and they win when your teams loses straight up.

[joepa66]

ADDING -

CBI -
SIENA +8 @ Fresno State W...SU

NIT -
CLEMSON +3 vs. Smu L

CIT -
PACIFIC +6 vs. Murray State L
VMI -1.5 vs. Yale L

[joepa66]

ADDING -

NIT -
MINNESOTA +2 vs. Florida State (hooked) W..SU

[Tony Truong]

Good luck

MINNESSOTA + 2 :thumbs:

Good luck Joe !

[joepa66]

JOEPA'S UPDATED YTD: 534 - 443 - 16
UNITS: +20.00
MAC: 57 - 43 - 5
NCAA: 25 - 13 - 3
NIT: 6 - 10
CBI: 2 - 4
CIT: 5 - 7
4/1/14: 2 - 3




OVEN MITT YTD: 33 - 34 - 19
3/15/14: 0 - 1




SCRF SYSTEM YTD: 69 - 61 - 5
3/8/14: 1 - 1

SCRF plays done for the season!

http://www.predictem.com/forums/college-basketball/40093-scrf-system.html

BOL to ya!:glass:

[joepa66]

ADDING -

NIT CHAMPIONSHIP -
MURRAY STATE -7.5 vs. Yale W

CIT CHAMPIONSHIP -
MINNESOTA +4 vs. Smu W...SU

[joepa66]

JOEPA'S UPDATED YTD: 536 - 443 - 16
UNITS: +22.00
MAC: 57 - 43 - 5
NCAA: 25 - 13 - 3
NIT: 7 - 10
CBI: 2 - 4
CIT: 6 - 7
4/3/14: 2 - 0




OVEN MITT YTD: 33 - 34 - 19
3/15/14: 0 - 1




SCRF SYSTEM YTD: 69 - 61 - 5
3/8/14: 1 - 1

SCRF plays done for the season!

http://www.predictem.com/forums/college-basketball/40093-scrf-system.html

BOL to ya!:glass:

[joepa66]

NCAA -
KENTUCKY -1 vs. Wisconsin P

[joepa66]

NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP -

UCONN +3 vs. Kentucky (hooked, hate getting beat by 1/2 points) W
UNDER 136 UConn/Kentucky W

Average combined points-per-game in NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP last 5 years is 124.5...

[joepa66]

JOEPA'S UPDATED YTD: 538 - 443 - 17
UNITS: +24.00
MAC: 57 - 43 - 5
NCAA: 27 - 13 - 4
NIT: 7 - 10
CBI: 2 - 4
CIT: 6 - 7
4/7/14: 2 - 0

Nice way to end the season with a double-winner! See you in golf, I am not much for NBA or baseball! Good luck to everyone.....




OVEN MITT YTD: 33 - 34 - 19
3/15/14: 0 - 1




SCRF SYSTEM YTD: 69 - 61 - 5
3/8/14: 1 - 1

SCRF plays done for the season!

http://www.predictem.com/forums/college-basketball/40093-scrf-system.html

BOL to ya!:glass: