JoePa's 11/27 CBB Picks

[joepa66]

JOEPA'S UPDATED YTD: 54 - 38 - 3
UNITS: +10.00
MAC: 8 - 4 - 1
11/26/13: 1 - 9

The Big Puke last night......:puke:....and mighty chunky as I choked along! So, buyer/tailer beware. Twisted Fate helped me get back up on my mount so let's ride.....

BOWLING GREEN +5.5 vs. Oral Roberts L
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS +3 vs. San Diego P
RICHMOND -7.5 @ Air Farce W



OVEN MITT YTD: 7 - 9
11/26/13: 0 - 1

"DEFINITELY"
ARIZONA -11 vs. Drexel L




BOL to ya!:glass:

[joepa66]

ADDING -

WISCONSIN -6.5 vs. West Virginia W

[BIGBALLER]

Know the feeling bud. Let's get it back today. Have a great Thanksgiving Joepa!

[joepa66]

ADDING -

PORTLAND -10.5 vs. San Jose State W

[Twisted Fate]

Do it up Coach!

Not quite sure which ones I will be playing yet but hope you get it back today! I hope to see a bunch of W's on that board!

So far, I'm looking for bowling green as well.

Will look closer to game time!

:thumbs:

[Twisted Fate]

Gahhhh! Line moved...

Taking Bowling Green +5 (-120), moved it by 1/2.

[Twisted Fate]

Hey Coach,

Saw you had +2.5 earlier, do you always buy the 0.5? I always do in bbk despite the cost. Football, I generally don't unless it's a "round" numbers like +6.5 or +9.5 but not 11 or 13.

Bowling Green was down 10... then end the half on a 21-2 run! Hope this one holds out for us! :thumbs:

[Twisted Fate]

Brutal... I wanna :puke:

Up 9 at half...

Lose by 16 in the 2nd half and not get the over cause of FTs late...

Unbelievable... Always comes down to FT's and I'm usually on the losing end...

That "should" have been a "win"...

[joepa66]

Brutal... I wanna :puke:

Up 9 at half...

Lose by 16 in the 2nd half and not get the over cause of FTs late...

Unbelievable... Always comes down to FT's and I'm usually on the losing end...

That "should" have been a "win"...

Brutal is under-stated for sure.....what a way to freaking lose. And my demise is further cemented by these kinds of games. What do these guys want, to win, or just the free trip?! Sheesh:bang:

[joepa66]

Hey Coach,

Saw you had +2.5 earlier, do you always buy the 0.5? I always do in bbk despite the cost. Football, I generally don't unless it's a "round" numbers like +6.5 or +9.5 but not 11 or 13.

Bowling Green was down 10... then end the half on a 21-2 run! Hope this one holds out for us! :thumbs:

BG...grrrrrrr!

Yea, I like those hooks in the lower lines in CBB like 1.5 and 2.5....generally don't buy hooks when the number is bigger and I love them in foots when I can get a 7 or 10 spot in my favor, but means so much more in hoops.

I typically subscribe to the following philosophy when considering buying the hook:

Whenever a half point is added to the line in football or basketball, you should considering buying the hook or buying the hook off. I don't like losing money just because a half point in a closely lined game or lines near the games scoring totals (i.e. Football 7 pts for a TD and PAT, 10 pts for a TD, PT & FG; Baskets 2 or 3 pts for FG or FG + FT in a closely contested game). Anything over 3 pts in basketball and generally 7 or 9 pts in football I do not buy the hook. I will not buy a hook on an 8.5 pt line just to get a push.

Half point hooks determine the outcome on hundreds of thousands of wagers every day. Half points beat bettors out of more money than anything other type of wager. Sportsbooks beat the hell out of casual bettors and have the advantage when players lay a half point or take a line a half point under a round number.

It's the way books make the most profit every year. Moneyline sports like hockey and baseball are completely different situations. Sometimes it's necessary to lay -1.5 because they force players to give up -1.5 in baseball and hockey just to get a better price. Sportsbooks prove it's true by paying big money if you lay -1.5. They don't want players betting underdogs in baseball and hockey taking +1.5 so they make the line very high since they know the .5 hook comes into play everyday. That's a huge 2-1 advantage on players laying -1.5 in baseball and hockey because you only have one way to win---your team must win by 2 or more. Sportsbooks have two chances to beat you when you lay -1.5. They win when your team only wins by 1 and they win when your teams loses straight up.

[Twisted Fate]

Story of my life...

I don't know how many times where I thought I was S-M-R-T and taking -1.5 in football and losing like a 5 gamer because they won by 1. (Lesson learned)

I would say I fall under "casual" better but it's a fine line to get the "value" for the line or decide to pay for it. But with the units I do, the juice does add up so I am usually really careful/smart about when I buy the point.

But I appreciate your input on that. Sometimes it is just a gut feeling to get take the point.


Other than that, I hate games like that. I just feel, let me "win" the games I'm "suppose" to "win" and let me "lose" the games I'm "suppose" to lose. But according to math everything is suppose to even out, even though it never seems that way.

Good luck rest of the day Coach! Hope you get the rest of the sheet and get a plus on the day!

I'm leaning Arizona and Wisc as well. I hope they work out!

:thumbs:

[BlueTooth3]

Brutal coach. I took the day off. Just wasn't happening for us. The totals are hot though. Look at the Gonzaga game earlier. Cal and Syracuse game past night. I like the over in the Baylor cause game. Free tries late always help..hoping Arizona keeps trailing and pound them heavy in the second half!
Best of luck!

[Twisted Fate]

That Gonzaga game finish was stupid... They scored like 25 points in the last minute. Down like 17 or something, get a small 6-0 then the foul / layup fest begins...

I saw your post earlier U165 and they got the brutal over. :(

[BlueTooth3]

There is no under that is safe. All of these games have the kids being called for every nonsense call. I don't think the books can adjust the totals quick enough to keep up with the amount of points scored. Until conference play starts I think the overs are a great bet.

[DukiesBaby]

Brutal is under-stated for sure.....what a way to freaking lose. And my demise is further cemented by these kinds of games. ! Sheesh:bang:

Did you hit that same black cat crossing the freeway i hit last week... sob, ever since i hit that cat i am getting burned every way under the sun.. i go 6-10 in ncaaf then i made about 4 basketball plays this week all 4 have come down to last min where i am on the hose job end of it....


im about to go see a fortune teller, but im afraid to cross the street:hide:



GL coach hope it turns around for you:beerbang: