March Madness Handicapping Article

[The Mailman]

CJ takes a look at some numbers that apply to teams in this year's Big Dance: <a href="http://www.predictem.com/cbb/march-madness-handicapping.php" title="March Madness Handicapping">March Madness Handicapping</a>.

[joepa66]

Thanks Mailman & CJ! Here's some more interesting tidbits:

The 2013 NCAA Basketball Tournament is finally here. Below are some quick facts and thoughts to consider when filling out your office bracket.

#1 Success:

Overall #1 seed has won 5 of last 6 NCAA national championships.

In 2011 when #3 seed Connecticut won the title, it was the first time in history that no #1 or #2 seed made the Final Four.

Teams seeded #1 thru #3 have won 30 of the past 34 NCAA Championships:

#1 seed (19 times 56%)
#2 seed (6 times 18%)
#3 seed (5 times 15%)
#4 or worse (4 times 12%)

First Round Dominance:

#1 seeds are 88-0 (100%) SU versus #16 seeds.

#2 seeds are 82-6 (93%) SU versus #15 seeds, however two #15 seeds won last year.

#3 seeds are 78-10 (89%) SU versus #14 seeds

#4 seeds are 69-19 (78%) SU versus #13 seeds

Biggest pointspread upset in NCAA Tournament history occurred last year when #15 Norfolk State (+21.5) defeated #2 Missouri, 86-84.

Odds & Ends:

Georgetown has lost 4 straight times in the first round to a double-digit seeded opponent in the NCAA Tournament. The Hoyas have lost to #10, #14, #11, and #10 seeds (2008-2012).
Oregon is a #12 seed, while UCLA is a #6 seed, despite Ducks being -1.5 favorite and winning the Pac-12 tournament versus the Bruins on a neutral court?

[joepa66]

Teams with a losing record (Liberty) are 5-1 SU in NCAA Play-In games.

[joepa66]

2013 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Snapshot

Here is a quick look at the Midwest region and some of the games and teams to pay attention to. Louisville leads the charge in this region and by all accounts has the most favorable path in the field but rarely does this tournament play to form completely.

Favorite: Louisville - The Cardinals have not been immune to an early upset, bowing out early two years ago as a #4 seed but this was a final four team last season and one of the more complete teams in the nation. Louisville is not an elite shooting team but the Cardinals possess perhaps the best defense in the nation and as was displayed during the Big East championship game, the press can create turnovers and big scoring runs. By being the #1 overall seed Louisville will draw a very weak first round foe and the Cardinals will be stacked with favorable venues with a path in Lexington and then Indianapolis. The second round game could be a challenge however as both Colorado State and Missouri rate above Louisville in offensive efficiency as they are the top two rebounding teams in the tournament field. Louisville would be a larger favorite than any other #1 seed in the second game however as there are some quality teams in the #8-9 slots this year. Louisville also likely draws the least fearsome #4 and #5 seeds in their region so rightfully so the Cardinals enter as the championship favorites at 9/2.

Final Four Sleeper: St. Louis - Nationally the Billikens may not be a household name but this is a team that has been on a roll. The death of former head coach Rick Majerus as the season started was a challenge but this team has played on a mission, winning the regular season and conference tournament titles in a very strong Atlantic 10 Conference. St. Louis has been one of the top ATS teams in the nation this season at 21-10 on the season and the Billikens have held foes to just 58 points per game this season. St. Louis beat New Mexico and lost to Kansas in the most prominent non-conference games so they have some experience against top teams. There are no easy games at this point and St. Louis is just a slight favorite against New Mexico State in an intriguing first round game and the second round contest will be closely lined with either Oklahoma State or Oregon but this is a team that could challenge Louisville should they get the opportunity and that game would also be a reasonable trip for St. Louis in Indianapolis.

Sweet 16 Sleeper: Middle Tennessee State - The Blue Raiders brought about the most controversy among the teams included in the field but that was the scenario for a Virginia Commonwealth team that made it to the Final Four two years ago. This is a team that lost just five games all season and all three non-conference losses came against teams that are in the NCAA Tournament field. Middle Tennessee State beat Mississippi and Vanderbilt this season and this is a veteran squad with all seniors and juniors in the rotation, ready for this opportunity after just missing out on the NCAA Tournament last season. Middle Tennessee State made a run to the NIT Final Eight last season and that experience should help the cause in the postseason this year. Opening up with a St. Mary’s won’t be an easy game but the Gaels do face long travel and have a complete dearth of quality wins on their resume. Memphis awaits the winner of that game but Conference USA warrants great scrutiny and the Tigers appear to be a bit over-seeded. Getting to the Sweet 16 will likely require beating Michigan State so this is certainly a long shot but the Spartans have had several early flameouts in the Tom Izzo years despite being well known for Final Four runs. Michigan State has lost its first or second tournament game five times since 2002 and the Blue Raiders are well equipped to handle a half court Big Ten style game.

Best Opening Game: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon - Oregon has a right to feel slighted in the bracket as a #12 seed despite winning the conference tournament. Oregon finished ahead of Colorado in the regular season and the Buffaloes were dealt a #10 seed while fellow under-seeded California also at #12 was at least given a game in its backyard. Oregon went 3-0 this season against UCLA and Arizona yet both of those teams were seeded well above the Ducks. Oklahoma State is a team that had Final Four sleeper attached to it before the brackets came out as they have one of the best players in the nation with freshman Marcus Smart. The Cowboys have a very tough draw overall but this is a team that won a preseason tournament in Puerto Rico with wins over Akron, Tennessee, and NC State in succession. Oklahoma State also lost by just a single-point against Gonzaga and this team was a single-point in double-overtime away from beating Kansas for a second time on the year. These teams both have excellent defensive efficiency ratings and this game will figure to be a grind of a game between two teams that are capable of making noise in the bracket despite the tough first game. Despite the 5/12 seeding the Cowboys are just 3-point favorite in this match-up and this could well be an exciting down-to-the-wire game Thursday afternoon.

Trendy Upset that won’t be: Cincinnati over Creighton - This is an offense vs. defense showdown and while backing the Big East as an underdog vs. the Missouri Valley sounds appealing this is a Cincinnati team in disarray at this point in the season. The Bearcats have lost seven of the last 11 games and each of the last three losses came by at least 16 points. Cincinnati has lost each of the last six games in which their opponent scored at least 60 points and this Blue Jays squad is one of the highest scoring teams in the nation, averaging over 75 points per game. Creighton has the top shooting percentage in the nation both overall and from 3-point range and while Cincinnati is one of the worst free throw teams in the nation, Creighton is one of the best. Cincinnati will play great defense and force Creighton into some uncomfortable looks but this is a veteran team with many different scoring options even through Doug McDermott gets most of the attention. Meanwhile Cincinnati is the team with limited options on offense with the vast majority of the scoring coming from three players. Creighton beat both Wisconsin and California away from home this season, two teams with outstanding defensive efficiency like Cincinnati, so it is not clear that the Blue Jays can be slowed down in this match-up. Cincinnati is much closer to Philadelphia than Omaha but that court will be dominated by Duke and Georgetown fans, which will relish rooting against the Bearcats.

[joepa66]

NCAA Top 25 Overrated/Underrated - Feb. 20
Joe Nelson
Posted: 2013-02-20
The Top 25 rankings feature great shifts each week, with voters often reacting to short term results. Each week several teams climb up a bit too high based on a soft stretch in the schedule or losses by teams ahead of them in the polls. Other teams can take falls despite losses that are justified through tough scheduling spots and opposition. There are teams that are overrated and underrated each week in the polls; here are three teams in each column this week.

Overrated

Miami, FL (AP #2): Former George Mason head coach Jim Larranaga deserves a ton of credit for the breakthrough season for Miami. The Hurricanes absolutely deserve to be ranked this high as they inch closer to locking up the ACC regular season title, sitting with a 13-0 conference record. Is Miami really the second best team in the nation however? Probably not, they do have high end wins over Michigan State and Duke but both of those games came at home. In ACC play the Hurricanes are still perfect but not without many close calls and some good fortune. Five wins have come by six points or less including each of the last three wins. Other than Miami, the ACC has been filled with disappointing teams. Duke has not lived up to its impressive non-conference showing and with key injuries the Blue Devils are no longer the same team. NC State has been a huge disappointment this season though the Wolfpack still have the talent to make a late season run. Teams like Florida State, Clemson, and Georgia Tech have also been very disappointing. While the ACC is used to being ranked as one of the top conferences in the nation, most measures call it the fourth or fifth best conference this season and really only three teams are a lock for the NCAA Tournament right now. Miami will certainly win the conference although they still do have to play at Duke and the Hurricanes will deserve to be a #1 or a #2 seed in the Big Dance but in a wide open field this will not be a team that the other contenders will fear seeing in their region.

Georgetown (AP #11): The Hoyas may be in the best position to win the Big East, sitting at 9-3. They have to play Syracuse twice still on the schedule but if they can earn a split, Syracuse has a much tougher draw still having to also face Louisville and Marquette. Current conference leader Marquette also has a tough finish with tricky road games and home dates with the Orange as well as Notre Dame. Georgetown has won seven games in a row but the big wins over Louisville and Marquette both came at home in very tight games. There are not many impressive road wins for the Hoyas on the season and the non-conference season did not feature any meaningful wins either. Taking Indiana to overtime impressed but it was still a loss and wins over UCLA, Tennessee, and Texas won't count for very much at this point in the season despite looking like nice wins at the time. Georgetown will enter the Big East tournament as one of the top four seeds and they could climb into a very high position in the NCAA Tournament with a strong showing the rest of the way. Georgetown could be ripe for an early upset just like last season however, losing to #11 seed NC State as a #3 seed in the round of 32. The Sagarin and Pomeroy rankings call Georgetown the fourth best team in the Big East and this team has far less potential in March than the Syracuse and Louisville teams ranked just barely ahead of them in the polls.

Ohio State (AP #18): The Buckeyes have certainly been ranked much higher over the course of the season but this is a team that is raising serious question marks with losses in three of the last four games. They have played Michigan in two very tight games, with the home team winning narrowly each time. They have been blown out by Indiana and Wisconsin in the last two weeks however and wins will be tough to come by in the final weeks. Ohio State has a very challenging remaining schedule with Minnesota and Michigan State in key home games this week before having to go to Bloomington next weekend. The finale at home against Illinois will be a tough game as well as Illinois crushed Ohio State at home early in the conference season and that game may be a bigger game for an Illini team sitting on the bubble. Ohio State did not produce any wins of merit in the non-conference season, losing in both big games with Duke and Kansas and having the game with Marquette cancelled. Should the Buckeyes continue to stumble down the stretch this may be the Big Ten team that is sitting on the bubble. Wins over Michigan and Wisconsin at home are nice but there is not much else to hang on to with this team. DeShaun Thomas is having a great statistical season but Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith have failed to make big strides this season in a year they were expected to pick up more of the load on offense.


Underrated

Butler (AP #15): With a more grueling conference slate this season in the move to the Atlantic 10, Butler has taken a few losses. St. Louis actually now leads the league but Butler is clearly still the best team in the conference and the team most likely to make a NCAA Tournament run to the second weekend. Brad Stevens has obviously proven himself as a great coach, particularly in big games and this year's team has as many high end wins as any team around. Wins over Marquette, North Carolina, Indiana, Vanderbilt, and Gonzaga present as rich of a non-conference resume as any team in the nation and the depth of the Atlantic 10 this season has provided Butler with good preparation for the postseason. Butler beat Gonzaga without its leading scorer as this team played well without Rotnei Clarke and that adversity will help make this team stronger. There are big games remaining for Butler, hosting St. Louis and Xavier and also having to play at VCU so it is unlikely that the Bulldogs will climb any higher but this is a team with a higher ceiling than most teams and confidence heading into the postseason. Butler is not well liked by the Sagarin or Pomeroy rankings but this is a team that will have its best ready for the most meaningful games.

Colorado State (AP #22): The Mountain West has been one of the deepest and toughest conferences in the nation and yet the best team in the conference is getting very little national respect. New Mexico did beat Colorado State at home and Lobos sit above the Rams but should Colorado State avenge that loss with a home date this weekend they should be in control of the league. A big game at UNLV waits this week and that result is important but the Rams have a favorable closing schedule with winnable games in the final four. The only conference losses came in very tight road games, in overtime at San Diego State and by five points at New Mexico. Losing to Illinois-Chicago is a big blemish on the resume but there are a number of solid wins on the non-conference slate as well, though no true marquee wins. The Rams have the ability to compete with major conference foes however with their great size, featuring the best rebounding numbers in the entire nation. This team has great offensive efficiency with that size advantage most statistical rankings call Colorado State the best team in the Mountain West and a top 15 team nationally despite just barely entering the national polls. The Rams still have some work to do to ensure an at-large bid in the Big Dance but this is a team no one will want to draw.

Middle Tennessee State (Unranked): The Sun Belt has produced teams that have made noise in recent NCAA Tournaments and Middle Tennessee State is the clear class of the league at 15-1 in conference play. The Blue Raiders may be building a case for at-large inclusion in the NCAA Tournament should they falter in the conference tournament as they have now won 12 straight games. None of the losses were bad losses though losing comparison arguments with Belmont and Akron could hurt the team if they leave room for discussion with another loss. They did beat Mississippi and Vanderbilt for impressive wins over SEC teams and the overall schedule rates a bit better than expected given that the Sun Belt lacks any other high quality teams this year. Middle Tennessee State has looked the part and most rankings agree. Pomeroy has the Blue Raiders at 29th and this is a team with great defensive efficiency, a quality that often transforms into a much better shot at postseason success. One thing working against Middle Tennessee State is not playing in the Bracket Buster as the resume could really use another solid win but this is a team that will be a tough out should they find their way into the NCAA Tournament.

[joepa66]

2013 NCAA Tournament West Region Snapshot
Joe Nelson
Posted: 2013-03-19
With the brackets set, here is a quick look at the West region and some of the games and teams to pay attention to. Gonzaga earned a historic though controversial #1 seed but this could be a wide open region. Take a look at the West region in this snapshot.

Favorite: Gonzaga – While there are different opinions all around on who will come out of this region, Gonzaga is still listed as the favorite at 9/4. Ohio State and New Mexico are close behind and there are many that feel Wisconsin, Pittsburgh, Arizona, and Kansas State are all viable contenders in what could be a wide open region. Gonzaga does not have the resume to be up at the top but they did lose just two games and the Bulldogs pass the eye test. Facing a tough defensive team like Pittsburgh or Wisconsin would seem to be a big hurdle for this squad and the lack of legitimate competition in the last two months is certainly a concern. Gonzaga will get to play on the west coast which could certainly help against eastern contenders but that advantage would be negated if they make it to the Sweet 16 or Elite Eight games and have to face New Mexico or Arizona. While Gonzaga has slightly shorter odds than Ohio State to win this region as well as to win the national championship, the Buckeyes will likely be favored if they actually meet head-to-head. Gonzaga would only be a two or three-point favorite over potential foes Pittsburgh or Wisconsin so while the Bulldogs can make a run, they are certainly rightfully pegged as a team that could also fall early and one has to be hesitant to pencil in Gonzaga to the Final Four, though it is not clear who the best alternative may be.

Final Four Sleeper: Kansas State – Should the bracket play to form Wisconsin will likely be favored over Kansas State but the Wildcats may be the forgotten team in this region. Kansas State has lost just seven games all season and every loss came against a NCAA Tournament team with three of those losses coming against Kansas. The location advantage should not be overlooked as the first two games for the Wildcats will be in Kansas City in an arena this team has already played games in this season. Wisconsin is certainly a dangerous team in that potential round of 32 match-up but the Wildcats have veteran guards that won’t be forced into careless mistakes and Coach Weber is certainly familiar with the Badgers. Should they have to face Gonzaga it would be a great challenge but the Bulldogs are likely to get a great second round test and they look like the most vulnerable of the top seeds. Given that Kansas State is sitting at 25/1 to win this region this is a team with a lot of value and in a wide open region and all of the teams in the path of the Wildcats have clear vulnerabilities. Kansas State beat Florida earlier this season and while they have struggled with rival Kansas, this is a team that can make a deep run in this region even though most are overlooking this team.

Sweet 16 Sleeper: Pittsburgh – The Panthers have efficiency rankings that peg them as a top 10 team yet the Panthers were saddled with a #8 seed. That may be a blessing in disguise as they draw the most vulnerable #1 seed in their pod and while Wichita State is not an easy first round opponent, the Shockers certainly don't have any wins of substance that rival what the Panthers battled through in the Big East. This is a team that has defeated Georgetown and Syracuse this season and also played very tight games with Michigan, Marquette, and Louisville. Pittsburgh has some youth but this is a team that improved tremendously as the season went on and may be able to peak at the right time. Pittsburgh might not be consistent enough on offense to make a Final Four run but they will be a serious threat to knock off Gonzaga should they survive the opening game with Wichita State as slowing down Gonzaga's offense to Pittsburgh's pace could cause real problems for the Bulldogs. Jamie Dixon has been labeled with being a great regular season performer only to see his team often fail in the NCAA Tournament as a high seed, this year's team has the opportunity to turn the tables on that history and produce a great run as a lesser seed.

Best Opening Game: Arizona vs. Belmont – The Pac-12 did not get a whole lot of respect from the NCAA Tournament committee with teams like Oregon and California falling to the 12-line but Arizona may be a team that is over-seeded. Arizona finished 25-7 on the season and wins over Florida and Miami certainly stand out. Arizona struggled in the Pac-12 however going 0-5 against UCLA, Oregon, and California. This team is reliant on four underclassmen that play significant minutes and they will face a veteran Belmont squad that starts five upperclassmen. This Belmont team was in the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons but they were dealt tough draws with elite defensive teams, falling in competitive games with Wisconsin and Georgetown. This year Belmont draws an Arizona team that is vulnerable to 3-point shooting and the Bruins have several players that will look to knock down long range shots regularly. Belmont won at Stanford earlier this season so they have proven they can hang with a quality Pac-12 squad and in the Bracket Buster the Bruins dominated an Ohio team that was in the Sweet 16 last season. This team is ready for this opportunity and if the shots are falling this could be a down-to-the-wire game.

Trendy Upset that won’t be: Ole Miss over Wisconsin – Wisconsin is getting a little more national respect than usual this season as the Badgers are generally a team that many pundits peg for a first round fall. While Bo Ryan has had a few squads that have underachieved a bit in the Big Dance, he has only once lost in the first round in 11 straight trips to the tournament. Belmont and Montana were both popular upset picks the last two years and both went down by double-digits against the Badgers. Ole Miss is a team that would not have made the NCAA Tournament until a great SEC Tournament run and the overall body of work is rather shaky for the Rebels. Prior to beating Missouri and Florida in the SEC tournament, Mississippi had defeated exactly one NCAA Tournament team this season and this is a squad that also lost to several bad teams, including falling to Mississippi State and South Carolina this year in SEC play. Mississippi has some talent but this team often lacks discipline, playing up-tempo and often forcing questionable shots. That style of play won't often hold up well against an elite Big Ten defense and with top distributor Jarvis Summers unlikely to play with a recent concussion this could be a disastrous match-up for Rebels team. Ole Miss has the look of a team that may simply be happy to be in the field and still riding high after the conference tournament championship.

[joepa66]

2013 NCAA Tournament South Region Snapshot
Joe Nelson
Posted: 2013-03-19
With the brackets set, here is a quick look at the South region and some of the games and teams to pay attention to. Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, and Michigan lead a bracket filled with powerhouse programs with a lot of great tradition. Take a look at the South region in this snapshot.

Favorite: Florida – While Kansas and Georgetown were seeded higher in this region, Florida is the odds-on favorite in this region at 7/5 to advance to the Final Four. Only Louisville and Indiana are liked better by the oddsmakers to win the national championship despite the Gators being a #3 seed. Florida opened the season looking like the best team in the nation opening up 7-0 with blowout wins over Wisconsin, Middle Tennessee State, Marquette, and Florida State but things have not gone as well lately. Florida did also lead Georgetown in the aircraft carrier game to open the season before it was cancelled for an interesting side story should those teams meet in this bracket. Florida has certainly shown some vulnerability in recent weeks, losing four of the past nine games including two losses to teams that did not make the NCAA Tournament field. Another concern is the inability to win close games for the Gators despite a well-balanced veteran team. Most Florida wins came by huge margins with 10 points being the smallest margin of victory all season. Six of the seven Florida losses came by six points or less and in the NCAA Tournament there will likely be some close games where the Gators will need to make plays down the stretch to get or hold a lead. Florida has dominant statistics and has the best efficiency ratings in the nation due to the many lopsided wins but this is a team that will need to prove itself in crunch time now that the games really matter.

Final Four Sleeper: VCU – Virginia Commonwealth made an amazing Final Four run two years ago and this is a team that has the potential to make a run again. While this team is not as talented as the squad from two years ago, the aggressive turnover forcing defensive philosophy can cause a lot of problems in a tournament setting. The bracket also lines up favorably as the Rams draw an Akron team that will be playing without its starting point guard in the first round and then will face a Michigan squad that is young and really struggles defensively at times. VCU is more efficient on offense than you might expect but that is an impact of the easy baskets in transition and off turnovers as this is a pretty average shooting team and a marginal rebounding squad. The Rams will play close with anyone however as just about every loss came in a very close game including narrow misses against Wichita State, Duke, and Missouri early in the year. VCU went 0-2 against St. Louis this season in a very strong Atlantic 10 conference but there are wins over five different NCAA Tournament teams on the resume. The NCAA Tournament track record is pretty impressive the last two years as last year this team followed up the Final Four run with a strong showing last year, beating Wichita State and then losing by just two against Indiana. VCU beat Kansas two years ago to get to the Final Four and they may get that chance again in the Sweet 16 of the South region.

Sweet 16 Sleeper: Oklahoma – Many can see VCU, San Diego State, or even Minnesota making a run in this region but an Oklahoma squad that had a very respectable season is getting little attention. While the Mountain West rated as one of the best conferences in the nation this year the track record of that league in the NCAA Tournament is incredibly poor and San Diego State may be the weakest of the five entrants. The Aztecs went 4-5 in the final nine games of the season yet still managed a #7 seed but the price includes traveling to the east coast with as long of travel as any team in the tournament for the opening game. San Diego State went 5-8 against teams that made the NCAA Tournament and this team is getting too much respect for a dominant 55-34 win over New Mexico back in January that came in a very difficult spot for the Lobos. That leaves this team vulnerable to an Oklahoma a team with wins over Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Iowa State in Big XII play. Losing the last game of the regular season and the first conference tournament game should leave the Sooners motivated and with two overtime losses and four other losses by three or fewer points on the year it very easily could have been an even stronger year for Oklahoma. Facing Georgetown in the Round of 32 will be a big challenge if Oklahoma gets by San Diego State but Georgetown is one of those teams that can go into great slumps offensively and keep in mind the Hoyas have not won a second game in the NCAA Tournament since the Final Four run in 2007.

Best Opening Game: North Carolina vs. Villanova – UCLA and Minnesota could also be a highly competitive game but this should be the most entertaining. North Carolina has been forced to play small down the stretch but it has been a formula that has worked as the Tar Heels played excellent late season ball and gave Miami a great run in an offensive showdown in the ACC Championship game. North Carolina won 11 of the last 15 games of the season and all four losses came against teams that are #2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament so this is a team with some great momentum and talent that is finally starting to reach its potential. Villanova will clash in style with the Tar Heels as this Wildcats team has had success in slower half court games. While the Wildcats are not the most consistent offensive team in the bracket they are one of the most efficient defensive teams in this region and this team picked up several big wins down the stretch to play into the field after a rough start to the season. Villanova played one of the nation’s toughest schedules and has wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, and Georgetown this season and this could be a great match-up between traditional powers. The winner will certainly be a tough draw for top seeded Kansas in a four-team pod that features a lot of history.

Trendy Upset that won't be: South Dakota State over Michigan – Michigan is young and the Wolverines have struggled down the stretch with a 6-6 record in the final 12 games of the season after being the #1 team in the nation at one point. South Dakota State is an offensive juggernaut that scores nearly 74 points per game and has one of the top shooting percentages in the field. Michigan is one of the worst defensive teams in the Big Ten but South Dakota State is perhaps the worst defensive team in the entire 68-team bracket. The Jackrabbits won the Summit League title but the conference fared very poorly in the Bracket Buster and this team only has two wins over teams that made the NCAA Tournament. One of the wins was a true gem, winning at New Mexico with a very cold shooting performance for the Lobos in a game that meant far more to the underdog. Michigan won't be caught off guard by this match-up and star guard Nate Wolters will be forced into difficult shots throughout this game. Against Minnesota earlier this season South Dakota State lost by 22 so matching up with a superior Big Ten team could be problematic. This has the feel of a match-up where the underdog might have a hot start and make some waves early but eventually the stronger team will prevail and stopping Michigan’s offense that ranks second in the nation in efficiency will be a big problem for the Jackrabbits.

[joepa66]

NCAA Tournament Long Shots
Joe Nelson
Posted: 2013-03-07
With a constant rotation on top of the polls, the NCAA Tournament field looks as wide open as ever with at least a dozen teams presenting credible final four cases and room for a Cinderella to make a grand appearance. With the top seeds in the tournament still likely to shuffle in the final week of the season before Selection Sunday there may be some long shot opportunities when looking at the odds to win the NCAA Tournament. These are not teams that should be counted on to make a trip to Atlanta but they are teams that are priced high enough to provide value at this point and these are teams that will be contenders to survive to the second week of the tournament. At that point holding on to one of these long shot tickets could ensure a successful Final Four with the appropriate hedging strategy.

Missouri (60/1): The Tigers will enter the Big Dance with significant motivation after the embarrassing exit last season. At 30-4 and the Big XII Tournament champions the Tigers were considered a real threat to make it to the Final Four last year. They were sent out to Phoenix as the least protected of the #2 seeds however, victim to one of the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history, falling to MEAC Tournament winner Norfolk State as a 21-point favorite. There have been some challenges for Missouri in the move to the SEC and while the league has not been as strong as the Big XII it has meant longer travel and unfamiliar environments and thus a poor road record for the Tigers. This is one of the highest scoring teams in the nation and a great rebounding squad so the Tigers are a team that is capable of making some noise. Missouri also is a very efficient offensive team and a great free throw shooting team which can pay dividends in the tournament. Most bracket projections will currently draw the Tigers into a pivotal 8-9 match-up and with all of the potential #1 seeds looking vulnerable, Missouri is a team that is capable of delivering a big upset and making a redemptive run this March.

Wisconsin (60/1): The Badgers are one of the most polarizing teams in the nation but the track record of success in the Bo Ryan era is difficult to argue with. Early this season Wisconsin looked like a team that might have its long NCAA Tournament streak snapped but in Big Ten play the Badgers worked their way into contention yet again. Wisconsin is a team that is reliant on 3-point shooting with a ball control offense and a very tough defensive scheme which can give more talented teams big problems. Wisconsin is also a team vulnerable to a cold shooting day and an upset risk with its lethargic offense however. Last season Wisconsin lost in a tight game with Syracuse in the Sweet 16 and with wins over Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio State this season the Badgers are capable of beating top caliber teams. Depending on how things shake out in the conference tournament Wisconsin will likely be seeded in #4 to #6 range and they will be a team that can win a few games in a row. While Wisconsin certainly does not look like a team that can win it all they are a team that could beat a top seed in a Sweet 16 game if they get that chance and there would be great opportunities moving forward in the tournament with this long shot ticket at that point.

Oklahoma State (75/1): Freshmen have made their mark on the NCAA Tournament in recent years and Oklahoma State has one of the most talented freshmen in the nation in Marcus Smart. The 6'4" guard has averaged 15 points per game this season but he has had a number of huge games in the spotlight, putting up 25 in a win at Kansas, and scoring 28 in the overtime win over Oklahoma, among other notable games. He is one of a handful of players capable of taking over the tournament. Oklahoma State is young but this is a balanced team that has delivered a very solid season. Recall early in the season the Cowboys beat Akron, Tennessee, and NC State in the span of four days to win the Puerto Rico Tip-Off and the youth of this team could be well suited for the daunting tournament schedule and travel. This is a team that has seen its seeding improve dramatically in recent weeks and they could be a dangerous squad seeded between #4 and #6 that is more than capable of surviving the first two games and giving a great run at a favored team in the Sweet 16. With none of the top 10 teams looking unbeatable, a team like Oklahoma State is capable of a big run even if this squad is short on Big Dance experience.

California (100/1): The Bears might not even be considered a NCAA Tournament lock at this point but they will most likely make the field and should end up drawing a tough first round game in a 7-10 or an 8-9 match-up. Winning that game would leave the Bears with a shot at one of the top teams in the bracket. The Bears have a lot of the qualities you want to see from a NCAA Tournament sleeper, they have a veteran coach and great defensive efficiency. After losing a lot of close games early in the year they won many of those games to get on a great late season run and move into this position. California has a 1st round NBA draft pick caliber player in Allen Crabbe who can take over games as well as a veteran point guard that can score in Justin Cobbs. The Bears don’t have great outside shooting and can look soft in the post at times but this is a team that won on the road against the top two teams in the Pac-12 with wins at Arizona and at Oregon. This is also a team that has shown a great emotional side at times which could propel a strong tournament run. Another advantage Cal could end up with is a western venue with first weekend sites in San Jose or Salt Lake City and a Sweet 16 host in Los Angeles. Other than Gonzaga and New Mexico there are not many high end teams in the geographic west this season so Cal could draw a top seed with a location advantage potentially in the critical round of 32 match-up which could help the upset cause.

Creighton (200/1): The Blue Jays opened the season looking like a top 10 caliber team, opening the year 17-1 before running into a rough stretch in conference play. With wins over Wisconsin, Arizona State, Akron, and California the Blue Jays did a lot of good things in non-conference play but against familiar foes in the Missouri Valley, Creighton occasionally hit the wall. The Blue Jays did take care of business at home this season with only two home losses and this is one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation and currently the team with the highest field goal percentage in the nation at over 51 percent. This is also a great free throw shooting team and if the Blue Jays get hot they will be a very tough out in the tournament. Creighton has a deep veteran team and a one of the nation's leading scorers in Doug McDermott. Creighton has NCAA Tournament experience from last season that can help the cause and value is on this team that opened the year as a legitimate Final Four sleeper. Creighton will also likely draw a 7-10 or an 8-9 match-up in the bracket and this is not a team that #1 or #2 seeds will want to see in their pod. This is the mid-major team that could make a real run this season after a somewhat disappointing regular season in which they had to deal with getting the best shot from every Missouri Valley team each night.

[joepa66]

2013 NCAA Tournament East Region Snapshot
Joe Nelson
Posted: 2013-03-20
With the brackets set, here is a quick look at the East region and some of the games and teams to pay attention to. Indiana leads this bracket and is one of the favorites to win the whole tournament but there are other contenders lurking and several popular first round upset calls waiting in this region. Take a look at the East region in this snapshot.

Favorite: Indiana - The Hoosiers are the favorites to win the East region and only sit behind Louisville as the favorite to win the national championship. Indiana only lost six games all season but three of those losses have come in the last six games. This team has the experience and talent to go all the way but there have been signs of trouble down the stretch. Tom Crean has also had some notable blunders that could cost his team at some point. The bracket sets up relatively well for Indiana although the second round game with either NC State or Temple will be a challenge. Miami and Marquette appear to be among the less feared #2 and #3 seeds in the tournament but two teams that beat Indiana, Butler and Illinois, are also in this region. Indiana will play the first two games in Dayton, a still favorable venue for the Hoosiers despite falling off the #1overall seeding that many expected the Hoosiers to claim. Being in Washington D.C. for the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8 won't provide a great advantage to any of the teams in this region. This is certainly Indiana's bracket to lose and it this might be one of the weaker regions in the tournament.

Final Four Sleeper: Marquette – While the Golden Eagles are a #3 seed the co-champions in the Big East are not getting great respect and are even a popular go-against team in round 1. Should Marquette get by Davidson they could get a revenge opportunity against Butler after losing on a last second shot earlier this season against the Bulldogs. Marquette has had several big name players in recent years that have moved on to the NBA but this might be the most complete team in the Buzz Williams era, though perhaps lacking a star. Marquette only had one bad loss this season as every other team to beat the Golden Eagles is in the tournament field and the 2-point loss UW-Green Bay came in a tough situation with travel through a heavy snowstorm. Florida and Louisville are the only teams that soundly beat Marquette this season and most losses were in tight games and Marquette proved itself with 14 wins through a very tough Big East schedule. Miami could potentially be a very tough Sweet 16 opponent for the Golden Eagles but the Hurricanes are unproven on this stage and it may simply have been a down year for the ACC as many metrics suggest.

Sweet 16 Sleeper: California – The Golden Bears played a tough non-conference schedule and had a bit of a disappointing start to the season but this team rallied to win seven of the last eight games of the conference season. Cal picked up wins over the other four NCAA Tournament teams in the Pac-12 in that stretch and this team should be hungry after losing in upset fashion in the Pac-12 tournament. Cal lost in the First Four last season so this team should be focused for a better showing this year and they draw a rematch of a one-point loss at home against UNLV earlier this season. That was certainly a much bigger game on the UNLV schedule as Cal has just come off a trip to Madison and an ugly loss to Wisconsin and then had a more prominent game with Creighton up next. That was the first big test of the season for UNLV and the Rebels barely won despite strong shooting and a big rebounding edge. This game will be in San Jose which is a big location advantage for the Bears and could be a big help in a potential round of 32 match-up with Syracuse. Cal has the talent to make a run led by NBA prospect Allen Crabbe who has been dominant at times this season and could carry the team.

Best Opening Game: Butler vs. Bucknell – Butler has earned respect in the NCAA Tournament after two recent Final Four runs but this year’s team stumbled down the stretch and could not compete with St. Louis, the top team in the Atlantic 10 that beat Butler three times. Several wins over marginal teams came down to the wire for the Bulldogs and while this team has a history of big wins in the NCAA Tournament, many of those games also came by slim margins. Bucknell is not a deep team but the Bison have the ability to deliver a minor upset in this match-up. Bucknell has notable wins over Purdue, George Mason, Niagara, New Mexico State, Kent State, and LaSalle this season as they played a tough non-conference schedule. Bucknell also nearly beat Missouri with a two-point road loss in January. Last year’s Patriot League champion Lehigh beat Duke in the first round so this conference deserves respect. In the NIT last season Bucknell beat Arizona in Tucson and while this will be a favorable venue for Butler this could be a great first round match-up that could go either way.

Trendy Upset that won’t be: Davidson over Marquette – Davidson was a great story a few years ago with an Elite 8 run but that team had now NBA star Steph Curry leading the way. The Wildcats don’t have a player of that caliber this year and the 17-1 record in the Southern Conference can not be viewed as being overly meaningful as it was not a strong year for the conference, featuring only three of twelve teams closing with a winning record. Davidson has won 17 straight games but only an overtime home win over Montana brings any semblance of credibility. Early season wins over Vanderbilt and West Virginia looked impressive at the time but neither of those teams had a strong season. Credit Davison for playing a strong non-conference schedule but they lost soundly in games with Gonzaga and Duke and also lost to UW-Milwaukee and Drexel. Davidson’s best two players mainly score inside the post and the opportunities will not be the same going against Marquette compared with many of the Southern Conference opponents. Marquette is not a flashy team but this has been a disciplined group that plays team basketball in a bit of a departure from past Golden Eagles squads. Marquette battled through an extremely tough schedule and won a share of the Big East title along with Louisville and Georgetown in a conference that put eight teams into the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams have strong offensive numbers but Marquette has been the superior team through a far more rigorous schedule. Marquette has been in the Sweet 16 the last two years and this is a team that has the ability to make another solid postseason run.