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Purdue -1 2nd H
Purdue PK 1st 10mins 2nd H
Delaware -4 2nd H
Delaware -2.5 1st 10mins 2nd H +100
Purdue PK 1st 10mins 2nd H
Delaware -4 2nd H
Delaware -2.5 1st 10mins 2nd H +100
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Stanford -5 1st 10mins 1st H
I am still fuming at how the refs & some questionable choices had Oklahoma State give Duke that game.Comment
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Florida State +9 2nd H
Florida State +5.5 1st 10mins 2nd H +110
Strictly a numbers & situation play. Baylor has the game won as the Seminoles just came out and **** the bed from the outset. They are a better team than this with enough character to not fold. They won't put a scare in Baylor but I think they can keep it under a 41 point loss. I also expect the Lady Bears to coast.Comment
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Penn State -1.5 1st 10mins 2nd H
Ehh Penn State stretched out the lead too much. I was actually hoping they would be down at HT as I was ready to go all in on them in the 2nd H. LSU has no depth as they have dressed only 7 players. Their game plan of milking the shot clock down only got them so far as once Penn State sped up the game to the fast tempo they prefer, LSU had no answers. I'll take a nice shot that Penn State stretches this lead out & has them put away by the 10 minute mark.
Stanford -3.5 1st 10mins 2nd H -120
Normally I would not take a play like this based on the game spread & HT lead. However Michigan has absolutely zero shot at making this a game as they already looked winded by HT & like I mentioned prior, they have zero depth or answers for the inside out game of Stanford. Unless the Cardinals decide to go in full on coast mode, they should be able to be up by 35+ by the 10minute mark.Comment
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Kansas +22 -106 (Should keep it competitive but they don't have enough to win this game outright. The best ML plays on this are 1st 10mins & 1st H only.)
o139.5 Kansas-Notre Dame -106
Nebraska +16 -106 (Line is way too high as it should be under double digits. This is a live dog that can win outright.
Baylor -27.5 -106 (The Cardinals have a great young coach & some nice players, however when they don't have the depth of talent to compete with the very elite teams in the country. They will compete for the full 40 minutes but by the 10minute mark of the 2nd H, this game will have already been decided. The only chance they have to cover is to backdoor.)
o132.5 Louisville-Baylor -106 (Mainly a play on Louisville giving up at least 80+ in this game and scoring enough to send it over.)
Tennessee -3 -106 (This should be a highly entertaining game, perhaps the best of the day. However in the end the Sooners do not have the bodies to handle the inside game of the Lady Vols who will dominate there & on the boards to pull away & win by about 10.
o141.5 Tennessee-Oklahoma -106Comment
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Baylor -23.5 -109
Louisville o55
Baylor o78.5
Baylor -13.5 1st H
o63.5 Louisville-Baylor 1st H
Louisville o24.5 1st H
Baylor o39 1st H
Baylor -7.5 1st H -115
o31.5 Louisville-Baylor 1st 10mins 1st H -115
o68.5 Tennessee-Oklahoma 1st HComment
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My focus is on tomorrow actually as I could not wait to see what they would throw up for one particular game.
Notre Dame -6 (So close to just making this my GOTY as this line is way too low. Regardless of what they try to sell you, Duke is NOT one of the elite programs. They are a clear cut below & are getting way too much respect in this spot. This line should be at least double this.)
Tennessee -2 (Line is shaded low due to what Louisville did. Kudos to them but if they play that game 10 times, they would not be close in any of the other ones. Take advantage of the severe line value as this should be at a minimum of 8).Comment
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Notre Dame -2.5 1st 10mins 1st H
o65.5 Louisville-Tennessee 1st H
Louisville o32 1st H
Tennessee o33.5 1st H
Tennessee -1 1st 10mins 1st H
o32 Louisville-Tennessee 1st 10mins 1st H -115Comment
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Notre Dame -6 2nd H
Notre Dame -350 2nd H
Notre Dame o40 2nd H
Notre Dame -3.5 1st 10mins 2nd H -105
Notre Dame -220 1st 10mins 2nd H
Notre Dame o18 1st 10mins 2nd H
I am smiling that Duke is up at HT as this sets up for me to go super heavy on Notre Dame in the 2nd H on a line that is a complete gift. The reason why Duke is up is for the bogus 2 fouls called on Skylar Diggins. She had to sit & that is when they went on their run. Muffet will calm them down & have them use their precise execution to beat the matchup zone Duke likes to play as they increase the tempo without playing too fast. A lot of playing too fast fell on McBride who got caught up with feeling the need to take over the scoring with Diggins on the bench. Notre Dame will win this game by double digits when all is said & done.Comment
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Tennessee -6 2nd H
Tennessee -2.5 1st 10mins 2nd H
The Lady Vols biggest problem is they are letting the Cardinals junk defenses get in their head instead of focusing on their sets that could easily beat them. Simmons is not helping as she continues to shoot like **** when in my opinion she needs to be on the bench. The Lady Vols got outworked especially on the boards, something you rarely see from them. I expect that to change in the second half along with the pace as they need to stop playing too fast & focus on their advantage which is their size in the paint. Get the ball inside and watch how different this game will become. I expect Holly to pound this theme into submission at HT. They still can win this game. The first 5-6 minutes will tell how this game will end up.
This is not a super hard play so don't go crazy wagering wise, the easy money of the night has already passed.Comment
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Early thoughts on the Final Four, this tournament is Notre Dame's to lose at this point as imo they are 1/9 from here on out. UConn does not matchup well with them at all. It will be a dogfight but the Irish will pull away. The Louisville-Californina matchup will be interesting. They both like to play up tempo but if it comes down to half court execution, I think the Cardinals have the advantage, especially from outside the arc. The good thing for them is that they have a few days off until the game as they clearly looked shot energy wise before the 1st H was over as that Baylor win took a lot out of them. They pretty much played to hold on in the 2nd H and the Lady Vols started to play the way they needed to but at times went back to their 1st H woes of playing too fast. If this game comes down to FT shooting, the Cardinals will have a huge advantage as Cal is not that good of a FT shooting team.
When push comes to shove I feel Louisville has the clear coaching advantage & in my opinion the pressure advantage as they are playing with house money while Cal is playing with the world on their shoulders as they have been talking up winning it all from the outset. I saw some definite emotional chinks in their armor against South Florida & Georgia, two games they barely escaped from. If Louisville jumps out to a big lead, do the Lady Bears have it in them to make the run needed to get over the hump? I have my doubts about them. You will be getting points either way so take them (real curious on this line as I have a strong idea of what it should be) & are worth a definite ML play.Comment
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Notre Dame +2.5 -104 (Wrong team favored)
Notre Dame +125
Notre Dame +1.5 1st H -115
Notre Dame +110 1st H
No play on Louisville as the line is way off. As much as I think they have a great chance to win this game, they have zero business being the favorite in the game. Out of principal I am tempted to play Cal on the ML as the line is just so off. However I am keeping it as a no play unless it skyrockets out of control. I wouldn't advise backing the Cardinals as the favorite in this spot. Cal will use this as motivation as they are getting disrespected here big time.Comment
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o136.5 Connecticut-Notre Dame -106Comment
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Notre Dame -2 2nd H
Notre Dame o37 2nd H
Notre Dame -.5 1st 5 mins 2nd H +103
Notre Dame o7.5 1st 5 mins 2nd H -115
Notre Dame -.5 1st 10mins 2nd H -120
Notre Dame -1 1st 15 mins 2nd H -115Comment
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Connecticut -14 -115 (Absolute gift & the truth is I hate this team or specifically the cheater that Geno is. However I don't let that blind me as money is money!)Comment
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