Weekend

[TheBeholdah]

Faves/Pk

2 u= 5-2: +5.4
1 u= 16-16: -1.34
Faves/Pk Overall: 21-18-1: +4.06


Dogs

2 u= 1-0: +2
1 u= 10-22-2: -13.67
Dogs Overall: 11-22-2: -11.67


Totals

2 u Overs= 1-0: +2
1 u Overs= 1-4-1: -3.4
1 u Unders= 2-0: +2
Totals Overall: 4-4-1: +0.6


ATS/Totals Overall: 36-44-4: -7.11
Dog MLs: 3-22: -1.36
ML Parlays: 6-3: +3.453

[TheBeholdah]

2.2 / 2

Iona+8 @ st hoes

Its possible I upgrade this to a 2 unit play and possible play on over too

I've made it known here before how I feel about Phil Martelli. Fairfield is a better team than I thought, but that home loss last saturday solidified my opinion that Phil Martelli sucks

This year this team has done nothing but regress since the Notre Dame win, not one player is showing any improvement except perhaps PG Chris Wilson. This team's starting 5 is extremely talented and athletic, which makes it completely unnacceptable how theyre playing. Depth was a major problem last season and it has not improved in the slightest this season. Martelli for whatever reason wastes his scholarships on players that he refuses to play. W/out Halil who is still suspended, St Joes is basically a 5 man rotation. Against Fairfield the bench combined for 10 minutes and 0 points. Against Iona's fast pace, high octane offense that is not going to cut it. Since Martelli doesnt coach his offense to get easy buckets, this is actually the kind of game St Joes could thrive in, up and down and let their elite athleticsm provide the offense. THey're not getting after it on defense, I expect Iona to get theirs. W/ the addition of Laury this Iona team is pretty damn talented, they withered down the stretch at LaSalle, but LaSalle is playing much better team ball than St Joes is right now. LaSalle also had 7 players play at least 20 minutes. To me, if Iona gets down big in the 2nd half I wont look at it as major cause for panic. Iona has the depth to keep their starters fresh down the stretch and they can cut into the lead in last 10 minutes. Whatever the final result here, St Joes has shown nothing to suggest they should lay 8 points to a very talented team.

Also, the Battle of Regression will be an interesting game on monday, St Joes @ Drexel. I'll likely be on Drexel even though I'm 0 and 5 on drexel games this season.

[TheBeholdah]

Made it a 2 unit play, edited above... Idont know which way the line will move but dont wanna take a chance it goes down.

With no quality depth at all to speak of against a fast paced opponent, 8 seems steep.

[TheBeholdah]

0.4 / 1.02

Iona ML+255


tough loss on the parlay last night w/ Cinci losing by 1. Sucks that much more because I was looking forward to fading Cinci when they go to Pitt next game, probably lose potential value there now. Cinci is pretty good but not top 10 at all, they just chuck a bunch of 3's. Even down the stretch last night trailing by 1 point, they chucked a 3 on all 3 of their last possessions. Weak stuff right there

[TheBeholdah]

ouch money line jumped up a bunch after I played it haha, jeez. saw line dropping to 6/+220 elsewhere then 5 minutes later its at 8/+320.

[TheBeholdah]

saturday


1.1 /1

Louisville -7 vs. kentucky


dont even know how much I like this play, but expected this to be -9/10. Louisville supposed to be getting Dieng back, makes huge difference

[TheBeholdah]

North Dakota St was the play I was most looking forward to, thought line might come out around -5 since the JAcks just knocked off new mexico, but -8.5 is a damn sharp number. Hoping this gets bet down, it dropped half pt so far. Prior to catching New Mexico in a major lookahead flat spot, the JAcks have been disappointing and not very strong on defense, Bison handle business at home

[TheBeholdah]

I'm glad Iona got the cover, but I'm so disappointed I didnt take the over in that game that it doesnt really feel like I won. Tay Jones with a huge night, really first good performance of the year. In a 96 point outburst Phil still managed only 5 points from the bench. Iona plays even less defense than I thought, but they sure as hell can score.

I'm going to try and have the saturday card finalized by 11:30 am

The Louisville bet was more instinctive than anything else, but I believe it's the right play. Kentucks didnt fare well in their only other true road game, and beating up on 4 overmatched squads at home since the baylor loss doesnt mean theyre ready now for this game.

[TheBeholdah]

2.18 /2

NDSU Bison -6 vs. sdsu jackrabbits


Got the number I wanted and went for it w/ 2 unit play. What mostly intrigues me is the defensive efficiency numbers. 255 for sdsu, 51 for NDSU. SDSU's win over new mexico shows what theyre capabe of and was the kind of thing I expected out of them this season, but more times than not they havent performed on that level. They caught the lobos at the perfect time. Lobos were undefeated with a game @ #7Cinci on deck, sdsu was coming off game where they looked terrible losing by 30 to Belmont.
SDSU swept them last year. I think Bison come out strong with tough D and make a statement at home tonight

[TheBeholdah]

1/ 1.761

ML Parlay

Lville/LaSalle/UConn/No Dak St

[TheBeholdah]

1.08 / 1

Tennessee -6 vs. xavier

Think xavier's struggles will continue on the road here. Initially leaned under here but too low of a total for me. xavier has been struggling to reach 60 of late, and they arent that great at defense, think the vols pull away at some point.

gl

[TheBeholdah]

real tough day for me, hit the parlay but lost all 3 home chalks, all 3 winning but coming up short of the cover. The NDSU game was pretty damn frustrating , blew 2 double digit leads and came in as a team shooting 76% FT on season and went 10-21 at the ft line this game


1.1 / 1

Hawaii vs. CSUN: Over 151.5


Really didnt want to play this unless I was up on the day, but I'm takin a stab. Going to be a bunch of possessions, I think CSUN can turn hawaii over with the press for easy buckets and hawaii bigs have advantage inside. Hawaii plays fullerton next so if this goes under hopefully I can get it back on the over in hawaii-fullerton

[TheBeholdah]

man saturday was pretty devastating for me, 0-4: -5 units . Really didnt see that coming, had been inching my way up recently, and just all went to sh_t saturday.

Worst part was that there were points of all 4 games where I had legitimate reason to believe I'd cash the ticket. That freakin hawaii game was at the pace I expected, and was in great shape to go over 30 minutes in, then came up short, mostly thanks to combined 25 for 49 FT shooting :bang: . CSUN's Greene and Hicks are both lights out FT shooters that combined for 3 of 10 at the line. just tough luck. Kentucky hit back to back 3's after falling down 17 that really gave them new life, louisville probably would have coasted otherwise.



1.1 / 1

Detroit vs. Canisius: Over 152.5


I dont see Canisius slowing down the Detroit offense on the road very much, but Canisius has a nice advantage in that they shoot the 3 well and detroit ranked in bottom 300's in defended the 3. Harold Washington is banged up for Canisius and hopefully that doesnt effect their scoring that much here, dont think it will enough to keep this under