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Recap: 0-1
Record: 20-16
Review:
From last night's post:
"Final score just comes across at ESPN with the total at 126. I have a winner with Under 128'.
I go to look at the box score and the score is changed, lands on 129. WTF??!!
I checked the play-by-play, North Texas was up by 12 points, 27 seconds left on the clock, their possession, they're just going to dribble out the clock.
BUT, according to the box score, with the zero seconds left on the clock North Texas turns it over and at zero seconds left on the clock East Carolina, down by 12 points hits a meaningless 3-pointer and I lose by the hook.
Ughhhh.
Not playing the 6:00 or 7:00 games.
GOOD MOVE not buying either of the later plays as they both went Over, A Force by 2 pts, Col St by 1'.
That means the play went 0-3, losing by a combined 4 pts.
You have to be able to read the stars/room/whatever - when you lose a game like I did in the early game, with ZERO seconds left on the clock, it's PROBABLY a good idea to NOT press your luck and bet more games. Saved me a unit last night.
The play I used last night is now 14-23. Still a good Fade at 62% BUT it was 4-13 in Jan, which means it's gone 10-10 in its last 20 games. THAT is what I mean when I say "Beware of reversion toward the mean." Eventually, all things even out over time.
Five games qualify tonight. 14-23 overall but 10-10 last 20, and 5 straight losses. Can't play ON or AGAINST with numbers like that.
Here's the games that qualify: Citadel, Rich, Hou, Ten, Drake. No plays for me.
I did buy a game though, Murray St +2'.
It's from a 28-17 WF spot I have. And in a subset where the line I get is 4 pts or fewer the record is 15-7.
Today's play:
Murray St +2'.
Record: 20-16
Review:
From last night's post:
"Final score just comes across at ESPN with the total at 126. I have a winner with Under 128'.
I go to look at the box score and the score is changed, lands on 129. WTF??!!
I checked the play-by-play, North Texas was up by 12 points, 27 seconds left on the clock, their possession, they're just going to dribble out the clock.
BUT, according to the box score, with the zero seconds left on the clock North Texas turns it over and at zero seconds left on the clock East Carolina, down by 12 points hits a meaningless 3-pointer and I lose by the hook.
Ughhhh.
Not playing the 6:00 or 7:00 games.
GOOD MOVE not buying either of the later plays as they both went Over, A Force by 2 pts, Col St by 1'.
That means the play went 0-3, losing by a combined 4 pts.
You have to be able to read the stars/room/whatever - when you lose a game like I did in the early game, with ZERO seconds left on the clock, it's PROBABLY a good idea to NOT press your luck and bet more games. Saved me a unit last night.
The play I used last night is now 14-23. Still a good Fade at 62% BUT it was 4-13 in Jan, which means it's gone 10-10 in its last 20 games. THAT is what I mean when I say "Beware of reversion toward the mean." Eventually, all things even out over time.
Five games qualify tonight. 14-23 overall but 10-10 last 20, and 5 straight losses. Can't play ON or AGAINST with numbers like that.
Here's the games that qualify: Citadel, Rich, Hou, Ten, Drake. No plays for me.
I did buy a game though, Murray St +2'.
It's from a 28-17 WF spot I have. And in a subset where the line I get is 4 pts or fewer the record is 15-7.
Today's play:
Murray St +2'.