Saturday March 9th Pick

[recovering77]

Yes, I said Saturday. I am making this pick 4 days ahead of time without even having a line yet.

Providence vs. Connecticut. This line could be anywhere between 3.5 to 8.5, but based on my projections, I see it in the 3.5 to 4.5 range, which would be a very short line for UCONN.

Providence just finished up their last game before Saturday with a 13 point win at Georgetown, on an -8 line. Georgetown is terrible, but I'm pretty sure they could have won by more if they wanted/needed to. They took care of business and have the next 4 days to prepare for Saturday night's primetime matchup.

UCONN has a big game at Marquette tomorrow where they're a 5.5 point favorite. Marquette will want to avenge their early season 28 point drubbing at UCONN. That game was flat out embarrassing. I expect Marquette to give them everything they have, but UCONN will probably come out with the win one way or another. The outcome of that game doesn't really matter that much to me, unless Marquette really takes it to them and wins by double digits. After UCONN and Marquette's first meeting, UCONN got blown out by 19 at Creighton. Creighton is a good ranked team, but I guess the Marquette game took a lot out of them, and it was a letdown spot. It could happen again. It makes it an even stronger play if UCONN blows out Marquette again.

After Providence's loss to Villanova last Saturday, they're firmly on the bubble according to analysts. They're actually one of the first 4 out of the tournament right now. So Providence knows they need a statement win to put on their resume, and this will be their opportunity to do it. The Villanova game I think was really an outlier, because NOVA opened the second half on an 18-2 run. They really didn't get that much closer, but they were down 9 with a couple of minutes left and missed a couple of 3s that really could have made the game interesting.

This is a rematch from earlier in the season, where Providence lost by 9 at UCONN with a +14 point spread. UCONN was winning by 1 point at the half. UCONN built a 4 point lead with 13 minutes left, and never led by less the rest of the game. So Providence covered, but UCONN wasn't really in much danger of losing the second half. The lead was pretty much 5-8 the rest of the way.


So my play is Providence +4.5. I'll revisit this a day or tip before Saturday to confirm that I'm in the ballpark of the actual line. I really think it'll be in the 3.5 to 4.5 range, but it's UCONN and it could be inflated as high as 7.5 to 8.5, but I seriously doubt it. 5.5 is really the highest I could see it.

[recovering77]

So far the plan going to what I had hoped. Marquette had a nice run to start and finish the game, but UCONN handled business and covered the line as well.

I realized after I wrote this that Marquette was a +5 dog at home, and Marquette is actually ranked 8th in the country. Providence is not ranked, let alone #8, so this line could end up being higher than I expected. It could be in the +8.5 to +10.5 range. We'll see, I'll be checking tomorrow night. If the line is anywhere near 5 though, you know something is up.

Edit: I had considered this, but it looks like Providence students will be on spring break, so the home field isn't gonna be as intense otherwise. Just a nugget to consider.

[recovering77]

The line is out. Providence is +9.5 as of right now. That's at the top of my anticipated range, and also a bit higher than I had hoped. I'll have to think this through some more now that it is much higher than I had hoped. Providence as a +9.5 road team means that they're between 15-20 point dog if they were in UCONN, and that's as a 19-11 tournament bubble team, not some crappy team like Georgetown or Depaul.