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Taking: San Diego State Aztecs +2.
I generally try to avoid "good" matchups, but can't get past my projection of Boise State shooting in the mid 30 percentile range and SDSU shooting over 42%. Coaching comes into play here as well, as Brian Dutcher owns Leon Rice over the past few years with a 6-1 SU record. Dutcher employs a defensive scheme that has stifled BSU. Leon Rice may have won the last game, however, the Aztecs won't shoot 20% from the free throw line and only 21% from 3-point range again. Speaking of percentages, Boise St. has allowed 46% from the field over their last 5 games and vs. weak competition. I anticipate the Broncos bringing a high level of intensity for tonight's battle, but this is a bad sign for them. Lastly, keep an eye on BSU center Mladen Armus. When pressured, he makes a lot of dumb mistakes and is very turnover prone, which will be key in a game with a limited amount of possessions. I'm taking an 80% position on the SDSU point spread at +2 and placing 20% on the money line as I think they win this game straight up. Good luck!
I generally try to avoid "good" matchups, but can't get past my projection of Boise State shooting in the mid 30 percentile range and SDSU shooting over 42%. Coaching comes into play here as well, as Brian Dutcher owns Leon Rice over the past few years with a 6-1 SU record. Dutcher employs a defensive scheme that has stifled BSU. Leon Rice may have won the last game, however, the Aztecs won't shoot 20% from the free throw line and only 21% from 3-point range again. Speaking of percentages, Boise St. has allowed 46% from the field over their last 5 games and vs. weak competition. I anticipate the Broncos bringing a high level of intensity for tonight's battle, but this is a bad sign for them. Lastly, keep an eye on BSU center Mladen Armus. When pressured, he makes a lot of dumb mistakes and is very turnover prone, which will be key in a game with a limited amount of possessions. I'm taking an 80% position on the SDSU point spread at +2 and placing 20% on the money line as I think they win this game straight up. Good luck!
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