NCAA 2/28-3/06 ATS/Tot/1stH/2ndH

[RahStahMan]

2/28 03-2-0 +2.8
3/01 8-11-1 -4.7
3/02 07-8-0 -4.0
3/03 04-5-0 -2.5

3/04

NCAA
ATS 95-64-1 +37.50
O/U 12-15-0 -5.50
1stH
ATS 67-71-4 -2.20
O/U 5-10-0 -5.70
2ndH
ATS 185-162-8 +7.20
O/U 45-34-1 +3.20
YTD 402-349-15 +31.60 units 53%

Brown +7 2 unit
Penn +10.5 2 unit
Penn +6 (-115) 1stH 2 unit

[RahStahMan]

NE -2 (-105) 2ndH 2 unit

[RahStahMan]

Thanks for the insight. What sort of sites do you use to track these? I tend to use ScoresandOdds, VegasInsider, Pregame.com - I'm wondering where you can get the public info for things like first-half and second-half lines.

I am just new to the concept of fading the 80 percent public (though not too well, with my St. Johns pick tonight), but in terms of "imo, game lines in comparison to 2ndH lines may be the hugest indicator of them all" - what do you mean about that?

I guess if it's working - and it looks like that! - then why fix it? I just wonder about the time-commitment??? I understand successful capping and taking the time to do so go hand-in-hand, but again ... a ton of plays means [a ton of time taken] ???

Thanks for the insight bro.

I mainly use sagarin, kenpom, and sportsbook.com betting trends. There was a full blown discussion on this board years ago about the validity behind sportsbooks betting trends claims to provide the PERCENTAGE of MONEY on a side as oppoed to the NUMBER of WAGERS on a side. This is the link to the discussion (which is quite engaging)

http://www.predictem.com/forums/general-discussion/1253-where-get-accurate-number-where-public-betting.html

but if you can't bother right now to read through it then take the 30 seconds to read the live chat exchange I had with a sportsbook customer service rep. about 30 mins ago. I posted it in the last post of that thread here.

As for my statement, "imo, game lines in comparison to 2ndH lines may be the hugest indicator of them all" I mean that had I not seen the 1stH and not seen the 1stH boxscore based on the 1stH score I could still make an educated guess as to which side to take based on the 2ndH line in comparison to the full game line.

For example, late Wed night SHall opened as a 7 point dog (Imageshack - 50218730.jpg) with sportsbook showing 95% of the cash on StJohns. That number never dipped below 90% and settled at 91% before game time Thur night (Imageshack - 73902002.jpg). With the score 34-30 in favor of SHall at the half in order for StJohns to cover the full game line they would have to beat SHall by 12 pts in the 2ndH yet the line was just 3. To me that's screaming for Red Storm money, especially when you consider that StJohns was a huge public fave. That's why I put 3 units rather than my normal 2 on it. I don't remember the 1stH stats but I'm sure they backed my "educated guess" by leading or being highly competitive in the rebound and assists columns, two stats I look at closely when considering 2ndH spreads.
Of course comparing lines in conjunction with public percentages and the 1stH score isn't fool proof but what is?

As far as time involved I'll say that there is far less time involved capping for the 2ndH rather than full game lines simply because that 2ndh play is largely based on whats happened in the 1stH.
Regardless, as with anything, if you want to be good at something you have to invest time and effort into it. How much time and effort? Well that's up to the individual.

I hope that helps some what but it's almost halftime so I gotta roll.

GL bro!

[RahStahMan]

Akron +2.5 2ndH 2 unit

[RahStahMan]

Mia-OH + (-115) 2ndH 2 unit

[akatdrake]

Thank's for the insight. I know about Sagarin's ratings, but knew nothing about Kenpom - I'll have to take a look. I take it you use Sportsbook.com then, I wonder if I can access theirs without depositing...

If I'm understanding you correctly... Let's say line like tonight opens up at Citadel vs Elon -4... Elon leads at 2 at halftime, then theoretically the line for the second half should be Elon -2, correct? If it's anything different - then you're saying Vegas is indicating a different finish than first thought?

SO, if line happens to be Citadel -2 - then Vegas is changing it's mind about the outcome and are you saying you generally follow Vegas then or fade them? Do you trust their initial read or their updated read?

I am going to read those threads now. Thanks again bud, I appreciate you letting me pick your mind.

[RahStahMan]

Mia-OH + (-115) 2ndH 2 unit

+3

[RahStahMan]

W&M +8 2 unit
W&M +4.5 (-105) 1stH 2 unit

Marist +5 2ndH 2 unit

[RahStahMan]

W&M +5.5 2ndH 2 unit
Det +.5 2ndH2 unit

[RahStahMan]

Loy-Mary +5.5 2ndH 2 unit

[RahStahMan]

APeay +4 2 unit
APeay/MorSt Over 129 2 unit

[RahStahMan]

APeay -.5 2ndH 3 unit

[RahStahMan]

2/28 03-2-0 +2.8
3/01 8-11-1 -4.7
3/02 07-8-0 -4.0
3/03 04-5-0 -2.5
3/04 05-9-0 -8.8

3/05

NCAA
ATS 96-67-1 +33.30
O/U 12-16-0 -7.50
1stH
ATS 68-72-4 -1.20
O/U 5-10-0 -5.70
2ndH
ATS 188-165-8 +5.60
O/U 45-34-1 +3.20
YTD 402-349-15 +31.60 units 53%

GASt +8 2ndH 2 unit
WVU -1.5 2ndH 2 unit

[RahStahMan]

Toledo +10 2 unit
NC-Green +8 2 unit
NoIll +11 2 unit

Toledo +5.5 (-105) 2 unit
NC-Green +4 2 unit
NoIll +6 (-105) 2 unit

[RahStahMan]

Ala -1.5 2ndH 2 unit
TXTech +5 (-105) 2ndH 2 unit